Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[32])
20	99.48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	108.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	104.34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	106.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	107.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	103	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	104.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	105.17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	104.84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	106.18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	108.86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	107.77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	102.74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	112.63	110.8795	108.9847	112.7744	0.0351	1	0.9925	1
34	106.26	106.199	104.3013	108.0967	0.4749	0	0.9726	0.9998
35	108.86	108.0951	105.9971	110.1932	0.2374	0.9568	0.9688	1
36	111.38	108.9394	106.0768	111.8021	0.0474	0.5217	0.8618	1
37	106.85	104.3541	101.1967	107.5115	0.0606	0	0.7997	0.8418
38	107.86	105.8649	102.2881	109.4416	0.1371	0.2947	0.7727	0.9566
39	107.94	106.3486	102.1915	110.5056	0.2265	0.238	0.7108	0.9556
40	111.38	105.9029	101.3244	110.4813	0.0095	0.1916	0.6755	0.9121
41	111.29	107.2252	102.1977	112.2527	0.0565	0.0526	0.6582	0.9598
42	113.72	109.8172	104.3035	115.3309	0.0827	0.3003	0.6332	0.9941
43	111.88	108.6692	102.7306	114.6077	0.1446	0.0478	0.6167	0.9748
44	109.87	103.6208	97.2597	109.982	0.0271	0.0055	0.607	0.607
45	113.72	111.7177	104.0633	119.372	0.3041	0.6819	0.4076	0.9892
46	111.71	107.0076	98.9696	115.0456	0.1258	0.0508	0.5723	0.851
47	114.81	108.8905	100.2092	117.5719	0.0907	0.2622	0.5028	0.9175
48	112.05	109.7137	99.9945	119.4328	0.3188	0.152	0.3684	0.9202
49	111.54	105.1131	94.6939	115.5322	0.1133	0.096	0.3719	0.6723
50	110.87	106.6155	95.4112	117.8199	0.2284	0.1945	0.4138	0.7511
51	110.87	107.0885	94.9858	119.1913	0.2701	0.2701	0.4452	0.7594
52	115.48	106.6349	93.7644	119.5054	0.089	0.2595	0.235	0.7235
53	111.63	107.9523	94.3025	121.602	0.2987	0.1399	0.3159	0.7729
54	116.24	110.5388	96.0891	124.9885	0.2197	0.4412	0.333	0.8549
55	113.56	109.3866	94.1961	124.577	0.2951	0.1883	0.3738	0.8044
56	106.01	104.3354	88.4154	120.2555	0.4183	0.128	0.2478	0.5779
57	110.45	112.4294	95.1392	129.7196	0.4112	0.7666	0.4418	0.864
58	107.77	107.7171	89.734	125.7002	0.4977	0.3829	0.3317	0.7063
59	108.61	109.5985	90.7118	128.4853	0.4591	0.5753	0.2943	0.7617
60	108.19	110.4202	90.3247	130.5156	0.4139	0.5701	0.4368	0.7731

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
33	0.0087	0.0158	0	3.0642	0	0
34	0.0091	6e-04	0.0082	0.0037	1.534	1.2385
35	0.0099	0.0071	0.0078	0.585	1.2177	1.1035
36	0.0134	0.0224	0.0115	5.9563	2.4023	1.5499
37	0.0154	0.0239	0.014	6.2295	3.1678	1.7798
38	0.0172	0.0188	0.0148	3.9806	3.3032	1.8175
39	0.0199	0.015	0.0148	2.5326	3.1932	1.7869
40	0.0221	0.0517	0.0194	29.9987	6.5438	2.5581
41	0.0239	0.0379	0.0215	16.5225	7.6526	2.7663
42	0.0256	0.0355	0.0229	15.232	8.4105	2.9001
43	0.0279	0.0295	0.0235	10.3095	8.5832	2.9297
44	0.0313	0.0603	0.0265	39.052	11.1222	3.335
45	0.035	0.0179	0.0259	4.0094	10.5751	3.2519
46	0.0383	0.0439	0.0272	22.1128	11.3992	3.3763
47	0.0407	0.0544	0.029	35.04	12.9753	3.6021
48	0.0452	0.0213	0.0285	5.4584	12.5055	3.5363
49	0.0506	0.0611	0.0304	41.3056	14.1996	3.7682
50	0.0536	0.0399	0.031	18.1006	14.4163	3.7969
51	0.0577	0.0353	0.0312	14.2994	14.4102	3.7961
52	0.0616	0.0829	0.0338	78.2359	17.6014	4.1954
53	0.0645	0.0341	0.0338	13.5255	17.4074	4.1722
54	0.0667	0.0516	0.0346	32.5039	18.0936	4.2537
55	0.0709	0.0382	0.0347	17.4175	18.0642	4.2502
56	0.0778	0.016	0.034	2.8041	17.4283	4.1747
57	0.0785	-0.0176	0.0333	3.9181	16.8879	4.1095
58	0.0852	5e-04	0.0321	0.0028	16.2385	4.0297
59	0.0879	-0.009	0.0312	0.9772	15.6733	3.9589
60	0.0929	-0.0202	0.0308	4.9736	15.2911	3.9104