| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 21790 | 21790 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 13253 | 16782.0114077606 | -165.320321010184 | -3529.01140776059 | -2.26734767863568 |
| 3 | 37702 | 26911.8763596083 | 468.745791682073 | 10790.1236403917 | 4.27606069384698 |
| 4 | 30364 | 30168.7922406593 | 608.2687788764 | 195.207759340676 | 1.44324779072417 |
| 5 | 32609 | 31906.5316027653 | 645.157679236632 | 702.468397234687 | 0.63266784796825 |
| 6 | 30212 | 31465.4049342018 | 620.787707839629 | -1253.40493420176 | -0.616458413578782 |
| 7 | 29965 | 30579.712738655 | 592.070794724581 | -614.712738654988 | -0.854610744421069 |
| 8 | 28352 | 29248.6533423686 | 555.108047662618 | -896.653342368599 | -1.08852210288513 |
| 9 | 25814 | 27252.6477771988 | 502.843553614259 | -1438.64777719885 | -1.44067065128127 |
| 10 | 22414 | 24446.6652373676 | 430.834665193079 | -2032.66523736755 | -1.86514224430075 |
| 11 | 20506 | 21849.7389044958 | 361.89866352914 | -1343.73890449580 | -1.70434520692938 |
| 12 | 28806 | 24302.8332279123 | 411.14098684386 | 4503.16677208771 | 1.17581738932498 |
| 13 | 22228 | 24666.4229159156 | 411.533990067027 | -2438.42291591556 | -0.0282965123289481 |
| 14 | 13971 | 24946.9463741207 | 410.289837945775 | -10975.9463741207 | -0.0755324873357491 |
| 15 | 36845 | 26511.1505446717 | 445.289848774651 | 10333.8494553283 | 0.604504365640298 |
| 16 | 35338 | 31255.0317442735 | 607.002237152084 | 4082.96825572647 | 2.24916974197867 |
| 17 | 35022 | 33507.9593533594 | 666.369536185956 | 1514.04064664057 | 0.893284976457974 |
| 18 | 34777 | 34896.7523608181 | 689.343293327965 | -119.752360818107 | 0.400517144106472 |
| 19 | 26887 | 31547.2459902054 | 574.325083202697 | -4660.24599020544 | -2.25266536147311 |
| 20 | 23970 | 27194.7718877859 | 441.539407229076 | -3224.77188778588 | -2.74896329674017 |
| 21 | 22780 | 24038.0762562432 | 345.798544382081 | -1258.07625624319 | -2.00565925250955 |
| 22 | 17351 | 20729.7051080583 | 249.381958069965 | -3378.70510805833 | -2.03359957169916 |
| 23 | 21382 | 21304.0321768907 | 257.590239281528 | 77.9678231092692 | 0.180470581924121 |
| 24 | 24561 | 20829.8194621869 | 240.907681573542 | 3731.18053781309 | -0.406659301200053 |
| 25 | 17409 | 20556.4293561632 | 230.406179221784 | -3147.42935616318 | -0.288175435609355 |
| 26 | 11514 | 22273.5229302763 | 265.773875263281 | -10759.5229302763 | 0.825924042267007 |
| 27 | 31514 | 23625.2721068701 | 298.20363725374 | 7888.7278931299 | 0.587520559278356 |
| 28 | 27071 | 24244.8497084409 | 309.150167414804 | 2826.15029155905 | 0.172075723863048 |
| 29 | 29462 | 25935.5767815616 | 357.808237759617 | 3526.42321843842 | 0.74731076676027 |
| 30 | 26105 | 25058.4377071194 | 315.393062540300 | 1046.56229288060 | -0.676774364516379 |
| 31 | 22397 | 24291.7038063260 | 279.860066758035 | -1894.70380632604 | -0.59706286157529 |
| 32 | 23843 | 24250.2404382649 | 269.732815404575 | -407.240438264899 | -0.177555021380481 |
| 33 | 21705 | 22861.8526829586 | 219.106985126509 | -1156.85268295864 | -0.915340723717031 |
| 34 | 18089 | 22005.0681577616 | 187.183354126352 | -3916.06815776161 | -0.592880805070453 |
| 35 | 20764 | 21092.8879879925 | 155.545879723834 | -328.887987992530 | -0.605129764388368 |
| 36 | 25316 | 21210.6858014194 | 154.486720572197 | 4105.31419858057 | -0.0207986420450988 |
| 37 | 17704 | 21612.1925549599 | 161.44111919123 | -3908.19255495987 | 0.136298891319140 |
| 38 | 15548 | 24169.5626797954 | 232.392313342376 | -8621.56267979541 | 1.31595066305880 |
| 39 | 28029 | 23158.9320543618 | 192.808975934644 | 4870.0679456382 | -0.675832708728983 |
| 40 | 29383 | 24766.2020940842 | 240.520470975545 | 4616.79790591576 | 0.764554290495505 |
| 41 | 36438 | 28396.9118306107 | 357.969675095723 | 8041.08816938927 | 1.83787375149022 |
| 42 | 32034 | 30018.5170442967 | 401.711637086097 | 2015.48295570326 | 0.689705814735088 |
| 43 | 22679 | 27769.7340004157 | 311.536742031810 | -5090.73400041566 | -1.45371715848061 |
| 44 | 24319 | 25547.7387666425 | 227.335784319607 | -1228.73876664249 | -1.39140083897436 |
| 45 | 18004 | 22002.6966716285 | 104.864255608299 | -3998.69667162854 | -2.0697242032153 |
| 46 | 17537 | 20840.1863384196 | 64.5679136959275 | -3303.18633841956 | -0.694333799993492 |
| 47 | 20366 | 20629.0552832178 | 55.9413141495487 | -263.055283217788 | -0.150972796997400 |
| 48 | 22782 | 19987.1612658006 | 34.2531012663377 | 2794.83873419944 | -0.382461679549528 |
| 49 | 19169 | 21763.2965510494 | 88.8056818406522 | -2594.29655104941 | 0.95508534471904 |
| 50 | 13807 | 22409.1691002053 | 106.649321952972 | -8602.1691002053 | 0.304697240747639 |
| 51 | 29743 | 24431.3997630543 | 169.850669449687 | 5311.6002369457 | 1.04281685593041 |
| 52 | 25591 | 24259.3518963021 | 158.276473092873 | 1331.64810369790 | -0.185544761497289 |
| 53 | 29096 | 22823.3828440867 | 103.503812578720 | 6272.61715591333 | -0.865997119179112 |
| 54 | 26482 | 22299.355702916 | 81.8881560993354 | 4182.64429708401 | -0.342069280502289 |
| 55 | 22405 | 23485.6851413292 | 119.671935376913 | -1080.68514132925 | 0.603831570327107 |
| 56 | 27044 | 24783.5309515849 | 159.492983135175 | 2260.46904841506 | 0.644709779288494 |
| 57 | 17970 | 23466.3046285580 | 110.255247996363 | -5496.30462855803 | -0.807450216558366 |
| 58 | 18730 | 22529.8292899453 | 75.7760925707749 | -3799.82928994532 | -0.571744375546515 |
| 59 | 19684 | 21289.0480944557 | 32.7680463672691 | -1605.04809445574 | -0.718994028150559 |
| 60 | 19785 | 19730.4384554254 | -19.0927145727776 | 54.5615445745773 | -0.869645173620562 |
| 61 | 18479 | 20349.5695568548 | 1.80210460583783 | -1870.56955685482 | 0.348875884273631 |
| 62 | 10698 | 20393.8351950196 | 3.2071638753833 | -9695.83519501958 | 0.0231831409142943 |
| 63 | 31956 | 22905.9619350991 | 87.3399340501792 | 9050.03806490094 | 1.36647043641809 |
| 64 | 29506 | 25333.6178739727 | 166.764048883825 | 4172.38212602732 | 1.27246837224126 |
| 65 | 34506 | 27112.1284994249 | 221.876459699529 | 7393.87150057508 | 0.876611118306704 |
| 66 | 27165 | 26022.3732822905 | 176.935359965385 | 1142.62671770947 | -0.714680514769865 |
| 67 | 26736 | 26756.2216931093 | 195.963179008202 | -20.2216931093077 | 0.303971612882616 |
| 68 | 23691 | 24080.1803423000 | 98.424716454647 | -389.180342300051 | -1.56840997958186 |
| 69 | 18157 | 22965.5661850357 | 57.5233280786201 | -4808.56618503566 | -0.66209476748381 |
| 70 | 17328 | 21501.2712564848 | 6.54453001870966 | -4173.27125648483 | -0.830064388417503 |
| 71 | 18205 | 20177.9504302087 | -37.8112855047210 | -1972.95043020872 | -0.725298173047532 |
| 72 | 20995 | 20534.4289275736 | -24.6751159149381 | 460.571072426443 | 0.215139830485038 |
| 73 | 17382 | 20408.3723493729 | -28.0606344716724 | -3026.37234937288 | -0.0553314247773259 |
| 74 | 9367 | 20705.0161893101 | -17.1623064085986 | -11338.0161893101 | 0.177107006605041 |
| 75 | 31124 | 22082.4113178410 | 29.939632742584 | 9041.58868215903 | 0.759690192180759 |
| 76 | 26551 | 22747.5098119308 | 51.5154773993865 | 3803.49018806925 | 0.34567602660719 |
| 77 | 30651 | 22733.1137300014 | 49.2680650240193 | 7917.88626999855 | -0.0358749166668256 |
| 78 | 25859 | 23403.5513383431 | 70.4737219100325 | 2455.44866165691 | 0.338418764805274 |
| 79 | 25100 | 23406.3529923323 | 68.1663291860862 | 1693.64700766773 | -0.0369038954257227 |
| 80 | 25778 | 24137.597921211 | 90.708914900956 | 1640.40207878900 | 0.361709001386356 |
| 81 | 20418 | 24275.0937709708 | 92.293708354979 | -3857.09377097079 | 0.0255137879477471 |
| 82 | 18688 | 23408.5810988356 | 59.9261180321608 | -4720.58109883559 | -0.522630786906418 |
| 83 | 20424 | 22929.1842466701 | 41.7605583512744 | -2505.18424667006 | -0.293960121175542 |
| 84 | 24776 | 23539.2370637919 | 60.8901927999363 | 1236.76293620812 | 0.309840349049108 |
| 85 | 19814 | 23621.9115976917 | 61.6243029037183 | -3807.91159769173 | 0.0118794079694977 |
| 86 | 12738 | 24274.2443710432 | 81.5790374350345 | -11536.2443710432 | 0.32203121619518 |
| 87 | 31566 | 23823.3027766495 | 63.535666506282 | 7742.69722335047 | -0.290115104391078 |
| 88 | 30111 | 24911.9684096134 | 98.3663442388323 | 5199.03159038663 | 0.558187231687873 |
| 89 | 30019 | 24079.8925550969 | 66.6936733907988 | 5939.10744490307 | -0.50663874979335 |
| 90 | 31934 | 26377.2153845575 | 142.674854383944 | 5556.78461544248 | 1.21522178498963 |
| 91 | 25826 | 25996.8232875808 | 124.867356335637 | -170.823287580829 | -0.285113599356204 |
| 92 | 26835 | 25493.0968094918 | 103.497589911473 | 1341.90319050820 | -0.342693097889760 |
| 93 | 20205 | 24529.7422556851 | 67.294914418153 | -4324.7422556851 | -0.58150420513866 |
| 94 | 17789 | 23420.2798785414 | 27.4312330625485 | -5631.27987854137 | -0.641241567556556 |
| 95 | 20520 | 23224.1298476955 | 19.8660449640321 | -2704.12984769552 | -0.121829707152954 |
| 96 | 22518 | 22407.3725771512 | -8.4325479882688 | 110.627422848849 | -0.455958790442339 |
| 97 | 15572 | 21044.7337684367 | -54.2616558593258 | -5472.73376843668 | -0.738143414210378 |
| 98 | 11509 | 21634.8926661461 | -32.4277657096451 | -10125.8926661461 | 0.351211262130246 |
| 99 | 25447 | 20244.1884425091 | -78.5150900005977 | 5202.81155749087 | -0.740000643476599 |
| 100 | 24090 | 19343.5798352467 | -106.446964069498 | 4746.42016475328 | -0.447747539831284 |
| 101 | 27786 | 20731.3779957187 | -55.6306013435184 | 7054.62200428131 | 0.813823875322725 |
| 102 | 26195 | 20694.3464035668 | -54.9978675195907 | 5500.65359643322 | 0.0101324487018021 |
| 103 | 20516 | 20340.7443853140 | -65.15389050028 | 175.255614686033 | -0.162723090975126 |
| 104 | 22759 | 20319.2892142326 | -63.6686392117074 | 2439.71078576742 | 0.0238157550586854 |
| 105 | 19028 | 21279.336462866 | -28.9054900090588 | -2251.33646286601 | 0.557858870656898 |
| 106 | 16971 | 21841.5915029133 | -8.8482937623565 | -4870.59150291326 | 0.32209348583469 |
| 107 | 20036 | 21985.3180644959 | -3.67475375641031 | -1949.31806449592 | 0.0831280155650217 |
| 108 | 22485 | 21849.5716449912 | -8.15219837762342 | 635.428355008787 | -0.0719648300339925 |
| 109 | 18730 | 22857.3295431404 | 26.2967327623451 | -4127.32954314041 | 0.55361337869644 |
