Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[33])
21	628	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	612	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	595	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	597	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	593	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	590	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	580	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	574	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	573	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	573	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	620	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	626	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	620	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	588	604.4992	596.9083	612.0901	0	0	0.0264	0
35	566	582.8089	570.6555	594.9624	0.0034	0.2012	0.0246	0
36	557	584.859	566.9219	602.7961	0.0012	0.9803	0.0923	1e-04
37	561	580.4244	559.2593	601.5895	0.036	0.985	0.1221	1e-04
38	549	575.5345	551.4921	599.577	0.0153	0.882	0.1191	1e-04
39	532	564.5376	537.4178	591.6574	0.0093	0.8693	0.1319	0
40	526	557.6209	527.7872	587.4546	0.0189	0.9538	0.1409	0
41	511	555.346	522.9695	587.7225	0.0036	0.9622	0.1426	0
42	499	554.2201	519.3174	589.1228	0.001	0.9924	0.1458	1e-04
43	555	600.1495	562.8209	637.4781	0.0089	1	0.1486	0.1486
44	565	604.999	565.3235	644.6746	0.0241	0.9932	0.1498	0.2293
45	542	597.869	555.8844	639.8536	0.0046	0.9375	0.1508	0.1508
46	527	581.2575	533.9718	628.5431	0.0123	0.9482	0.3899	0.0541
47	510	558.4404	505.4955	611.3852	0.0365	0.8778	0.3898	0.0113
48	514	559.3654	499.5452	619.1856	0.0686	0.9471	0.5309	0.0235
49	517	553.8115	488.5567	619.0662	0.1344	0.8841	0.4145	0.0234
50	508	547.7996	477.3921	618.207	0.1339	0.8044	0.4867	0.0222
51	493	535.6807	459.9748	611.3865	0.1346	0.7632	0.538	0.0145
52	490	527.6437	446.9552	608.3322	0.1803	0.8	0.5159	0.0124
53	469	524.2484	438.7528	609.744	0.1027	0.7838	0.6193	0.0141
54	478	522.0024	431.742	612.2627	0.1697	0.8751	0.6913	0.0167
55	528	566.8123	471.9017	661.7229	0.2114	0.9667	0.5964	0.136
56	534	570.5427	471.0779	670.0075	0.2357	0.7991	0.5435	0.1649
57	518	562.294	458.3326	666.2553	0.2018	0.7031	0.649	0.1383
58	506	544.5641	433.6353	655.4929	0.2478	0.6806	0.6218	0.0913
59	502	520.6292	402.3906	638.8677	0.3787	0.5958	0.5699	0.0498
60	516	520.4367	393.8322	647.0413	0.4726	0.6123	0.5397	0.0616
61	528	513.7657	379.8604	647.6711	0.4175	0.487	0.4811	0.06

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
34	0.0064	-0.0273	0	272.2239	0	0
35	0.0106	-0.0288	0.0281	282.5407	277.3823	16.6548
36	0.0156	-0.0476	0.0346	776.1219	443.6288	21.0625
37	0.0186	-0.0335	0.0343	377.3076	427.0485	20.6652
38	0.0213	-0.0461	0.0367	704.082	482.4552	21.9649
39	0.0245	-0.0576	0.0402	1058.6965	578.4954	24.0519
40	0.0273	-0.0567	0.0425	999.8824	638.6936	25.2724
41	0.0297	-0.0799	0.0472	1966.5669	804.6777	28.3668
42	0.0321	-0.0996	0.053	3049.2585	1054.0756	32.4665
43	0.0317	-0.0752	0.0552	2038.4756	1152.5156	33.9487
44	0.0335	-0.0661	0.0562	1599.9227	1193.189	34.5426
45	0.0358	-0.0934	0.0593	3121.3475	1353.8688	36.795
46	0.0415	-0.0933	0.0619	2943.8711	1476.1767	38.421
47	0.0484	-0.0867	0.0637	2346.4701	1538.3405	39.2217
48	0.0546	-0.0811	0.0649	2058.0192	1572.9858	39.6609
49	0.0601	-0.0665	0.065	1355.0831	1559.3669	39.4888
50	0.0656	-0.0727	0.0654	1584.0046	1560.8161	39.5072
51	0.0721	-0.0797	0.0662	1821.6395	1575.3063	39.6901
52	0.078	-0.0713	0.0665	1417.0475	1566.9769	39.5851
53	0.0832	-0.1054	0.0684	3052.386	1641.2474	40.5123
54	0.0882	-0.0843	0.0692	1936.207	1655.2931	40.6853
55	0.0854	-0.0685	0.0692	1506.3937	1648.5249	40.602
56	0.0889	-0.064	0.0689	1335.3718	1634.9096	40.434
57	0.0943	-0.0788	0.0693	1961.956	1648.5365	40.6022
58	0.1039	-0.0708	0.0694	1487.1916	1642.0827	40.5226
59	0.1159	-0.0358	0.0681	347.0463	1592.2736	39.9033
60	0.1241	-0.0085	0.0659	19.6846	1534.0296	39.1667
61	0.133	0.0277	0.0645	202.6141	1486.479	38.5549