Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.781527354716212 |
beta | 0.167068730875885 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 107.22 | 105.267261496837 | 1.95273850316312 |
14 | 107.33 | 107.196788614964 | 0.133211385035580 |
15 | 107.11 | 107.440213638756 | -0.33021363875568 |
16 | 108.86 | 109.192405401537 | -0.332405401537116 |
17 | 107.72 | 107.915115055254 | -0.195115055254206 |
18 | 107.88 | 107.939844697002 | -0.0598446970022053 |
19 | 108.38 | 108.726662894449 | -0.346662894449253 |
20 | 107.72 | 108.769652750896 | -1.04965275089566 |
21 | 108.41 | 108.82763777212 | -0.417637772119988 |
22 | 109.9 | 108.116856499068 | 1.78314350093233 |
23 | 111.45 | 110.771761050778 | 0.678238949221722 |
24 | 112.18 | 110.787937396092 | 1.39206260390803 |
25 | 113.34 | 114.031755868548 | -0.691755868548086 |
26 | 113.46 | 113.539795156877 | -0.0797951568771111 |
27 | 114.06 | 113.531760608104 | 0.528239391896165 |
28 | 115.54 | 116.209424535710 | -0.669424535709823 |
29 | 116.39 | 114.721851713204 | 1.66814828679625 |
30 | 115.94 | 116.5706971202 | -0.630697120199969 |
31 | 116.97 | 117.156822878021 | -0.186822878021488 |
32 | 115.94 | 117.45387530098 | -1.51387530098005 |
33 | 115.91 | 117.59093443875 | -1.68093443874993 |
34 | 116.43 | 116.439547916341 | -0.0095479163409209 |
35 | 116.26 | 117.329358455594 | -1.06935845559369 |
36 | 116.35 | 115.711416965734 | 0.638583034266318 |
37 | 117.9 | 117.461801712373 | 0.438198287627401 |
38 | 117.7 | 117.634026034562 | 0.065973965438431 |
39 | 117.53 | 117.541630755777 | -0.0116307557772899 |
40 | 117.86 | 119.185354590308 | -1.32535459030792 |
41 | 117.65 | 117.197042238727 | 0.452957761272913 |
42 | 116.51 | 116.959900913531 | -0.449900913531437 |
43 | 115.93 | 117.182351202069 | -1.25235120206877 |
44 | 115.31 | 115.617201985121 | -0.307201985120514 |
45 | 115 | 116.066295343314 | -1.06629534331367 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
46 | 115.251016111138 | 113.455650371297 | 117.046381850979 |
47 | 115.403023555089 | 112.969626583469 | 117.836420526709 |
48 | 114.630344496376 | 111.569387770653 | 117.691301222099 |
49 | 115.369038253103 | 111.631510919358 | 119.106565586847 |
50 | 114.620191651546 | 110.223876054895 | 119.016507248197 |
51 | 113.955922364756 | 108.878998151014 | 119.032846578499 |
52 | 114.768465675007 | 108.922918655949 | 120.614012694064 |
53 | 113.878539692984 | 107.319242628010 | 120.437836757959 |
54 | 112.721572721518 | 105.447905409429 | 119.995240033607 |
55 | 112.767700492496 | 104.684804747219 | 120.850596237773 |
56 | 112.219088527184 | 103.344746399564 | 121.093430654804 |
57 | 112.586148749719 | 99.5228850780697 | 125.649412421368 |