| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.20150794324155 | -0.0986166801562142 | -0.00150794324155027 | -0.309040537073739 |
| 3 | 8 | 8.00283057750846 | -0.194512078765493 | -0.00283057750846062 | -0.304377034984027 |
| 4 | 7.9 | 7.89619813771343 | -0.110992221924477 | 0.00380186228657122 | 0.259490908910541 |
| 5 | 7.6 | 7.60710290313238 | -0.280349045317253 | -0.00710290313238139 | -0.526922252594266 |
| 6 | 7.6 | 7.5894352782938 | -0.0305154718711783 | 0.0105647217062059 | 0.777236677085165 |
| 7 | 8.3 | 8.27756350033823 | 0.652962934568876 | 0.0224364996617669 | 2.12631693214153 |
| 8 | 8.4 | 8.42411465087286 | 0.171335733221709 | -0.0241146508728594 | -1.49835286505826 |
| 9 | 8.4 | 8.4022979407693 | -0.0123638970675732 | -0.00229794076929965 | -0.571493612201239 |
| 10 | 8.4 | 8.398118670039 | -0.00457981959493595 | 0.00188132996100493 | 0.0242164371391531 |
| 11 | 8.4 | 8.39997964959871 | 0.00154577143125055 | 2.03504012858244e-05 | 0.0190568491318921 |
| 12 | 8.6 | 8.5935302527941 | 0.184154019187659 | 0.00646974720590753 | 0.568098296613493 |
| 13 | 8.9 | 8.89723721118891 | 0.297819721661505 | 0.00276278881108751 | 0.353780641744862 |
| 14 | 8.8 | 8.81254857887911 | -0.0661567648095394 | -0.0125485788791144 | -1.13787364407034 |
| 15 | 8.3 | 8.33210551744682 | -0.449554428603814 | -0.03210551744682 | -1.20575176823243 |
| 16 | 7.5 | 7.49654751038298 | -0.806802769014652 | 0.00345248961702379 | -1.10993647895224 |
| 17 | 7.2 | 7.16825468178275 | -0.364379268571575 | 0.0317453182172476 | 1.37659020782180 |
| 18 | 7.4 | 7.41110637072932 | 0.197272316466894 | -0.0111063707293208 | 1.74730949268202 |
| 19 | 8.8 | 8.70778685475634 | 1.21417115830365 | 0.0922131452436654 | 3.16359846568683 |
| 20 | 9.3 | 9.35828957297884 | 0.692818917212127 | -0.0582895729788386 | -1.62193836112218 |
| 21 | 9.3 | 9.3372457913932 | 0.0325503854806996 | -0.0372457913932058 | -2.05411002973329 |
| 22 | 8.7 | 8.71867517045162 | -0.569688907524338 | -0.0186751704516244 | -1.87357979531947 |
| 23 | 8.2 | 8.1937878995701 | -0.528250175480331 | 0.00621210042989475 | 0.128916898298164 |
| 24 | 8.3 | 8.27565012816473 | 0.0360448863597018 | 0.0243498718352705 | 1.75553885567322 |
| 25 | 8.5 | 8.48681074620486 | 0.197960409513843 | 0.0131892537951403 | 0.504014491173652 |
| 26 | 8.6 | 8.60659322134047 | 0.125609684135195 | -0.00659322134047034 | -0.225515294382770 |
| 27 | 8.5 | 8.50279066740803 | -0.0836346857588167 | -0.00279066740803013 | -0.654241362504792 |
| 28 | 8.2 | 8.21530980336555 | -0.269995115243943 | -0.0153098033655529 | -0.579478181871975 |
| 29 | 8.1 | 8.06084726067879 | -0.164543540171458 | 0.0391527393212141 | 0.328054018511747 |
| 30 | 7.9 | 8.00679015783698 | -0.0636579506010582 | -0.106790157836976 | 0.313866338946917 |
| 31 | 8.6 | 8.46458888621165 | 0.412516487516675 | 0.135411113788350 | 1.48138602867508 |
| 32 | 8.7 | 8.74466765072423 | 0.291582226359057 | -0.0446676507242307 | -0.376229419108265 |
| 33 | 8.7 | 8.70697815706679 | -0.00908476219982657 | -0.00697815706678867 | -0.935381666329714 |
| 34 | 8.5 | 8.50706404644173 | -0.183337772839505 | -0.00706404644173238 | -0.542105007729224 |
| 35 | 8.4 | 8.42349551328738 | -0.0922336519816608 | -0.0234955132873816 | 0.283427940059473 |
| 36 | 8.5 | 8.48254528853028 | 0.0458976874389169 | 0.017454711469724 | 0.429732441604963 |
| 37 | 8.7 | 8.68209057628563 | 0.18615973347711 | 0.0179094237143697 | 0.436660402369008 |
| 38 | 8.7 | 8.70667633812932 | 0.038598811591521 | -0.00667633812932111 | -0.459289685022563 |
| 39 | 8.6 | 8.59138376215762 | -0.100862298851671 | 0.0086162378423773 | -0.434927081496445 |
| 40 | 8.5 | 8.51385208004961 | -0.0796716143642026 | -0.0138520800496118 | 0.0659285991504954 |
| 41 | 8.3 | 8.25890553924152 | -0.238637913414801 | 0.0410944607584801 | -0.494452744334046 |
| 42 | 8 | 8.14993461344097 | -0.121006421414725 | -0.149934613440969 | 0.365974353648347 |
| 43 | 8.2 | 8.06582710542257 | -0.0875285544851058 | 0.134172894577431 | 0.104149836040597 |
| 44 | 8.1 | 8.11617540989993 | 0.0375638170478271 | -0.0161754098999275 | 0.389165448216263 |
| 45 | 8.1 | 8.09088508707781 | -0.0194612456731615 | 0.00911491292219052 | -0.177406231052720 |
| 46 | 8 | 8.01186461406146 | -0.0734975032603589 | -0.0118646140614547 | -0.168108093818893 |
| 47 | 7.9 | 7.93121085797819 | -0.0799901770160099 | -0.0312108579781895 | -0.0201989406438855 |
| 48 | 7.9 | 7.89963440230783 | -0.0360718985378237 | 0.000365597692166885 | 0.136634123441552 |
| 49 | 8 | 7.9667647257953 | 0.0575441566034415 | 0.0332352742046941 | 0.291437152539457 |
| 50 | 8 | 7.99601296231887 | 0.0318777967430105 | 0.00398703768113005 | -0.0798466092202058 |
| 51 | 7.9 | 7.90736032468487 | -0.0769665872681344 | -0.00736032468486671 | -0.339061405531233 |
| 52 | 8 | 7.98313596091908 | 0.0612094154316495 | 0.0168640390809208 | 0.430003205562517 |
| 53 | 7.7 | 7.68911191307443 | -0.259801448256619 | 0.0108880869255737 | -0.998402009993685 |
| 54 | 7.2 | 7.352599876354 | -0.329126626078210 | -0.152599876353997 | -0.215684513089949 |
| 55 | 7.5 | 7.36012550557213 | -0.0248394618827552 | 0.139874494427866 | 0.946641438144736 |
| 56 | 7.3 | 7.3141494166909 | -0.0439441485933053 | -0.0141494166908954 | -0.059435064635252 |
| 57 | 7 | 7.00270763400846 | -0.285723114504312 | -0.00270763400845993 | -0.752179878351502 |
| 58 | 7 | 6.9915471819148 | -0.0375567928908624 | 0.00845281808519224 | 0.772052556840845 |
| 59 | 7 | 7.02693270980818 | 0.0283719342405384 | -0.0269327098081753 | 0.205106003491748 |
| 60 | 7.2 | 7.20239137752213 | 0.161294440603718 | -0.00239137752212999 | 0.4135480595682 |
| 61 | 7.3 | 7.2728868319794 | 0.0792318669164984 | 0.0271131680205903 | -0.2554448349319 |
| 62 | 7.1 | 7.09985318516729 | -0.148686133361820 | 0.000146814832710113 | -0.70892621824615 |
| 63 | 6.8 | 6.84291559765728 | -0.24621877452675 | -0.0429155976572829 | -0.303662639828411 |
| 64 | 6.4 | 6.36032599414731 | -0.459465531724917 | 0.0396740058526884 | -0.663676077715483 |
| 65 | 6.1 | 6.05897452667951 | -0.316922618916431 | 0.0410254733204924 | 0.44332999844042 |
| 66 | 6.5 | 6.63522708060232 | 0.488227690252844 | -0.135227080602317 | 2.50494243221914 |
| 67 | 7.7 | 7.54067407657017 | 0.864392092635254 | 0.159325923429828 | 1.17026054465987 |
| 68 | 7.9 | 7.91056574167231 | 0.418541277665396 | -0.0105657416723083 | -1.38704799283956 |
| 69 | 7.5 | 7.5732063271842 | -0.262988181540286 | -0.073206327184208 | -2.12025519382940 |
| 70 | 6.9 | 6.91661774716365 | -0.617863481089187 | -0.0166177471636463 | -1.10402931056326 |
| 71 | 6.6 | 6.62313661158964 | -0.325406663450460 | -0.0231366115896357 | 0.909837401592211 |
| 72 | 6.9 | 6.86707424260515 | 0.187822973769178 | 0.0329257573948542 | 1.59680928356641 |
