Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[84])
72	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
73	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
74	105.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	118.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	106.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
77	109.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	117.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	92.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	104.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	112.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	122.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	113.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	110.7	107.1671	101.3562	112.9779	0.1167	0.9922	0.6531	0.9922
86	112.8	105.1605	99.3499	110.9711	0.005	0.0308	0.4812	0.9591
87	109.8	115.2545	109.099	121.4101	0.0412	0.7828	0.1295	1
88	117.3	109.2988	102.3471	116.2506	0.012	0.4438	0.8164	0.9956
89	109.1	106.1149	99.1206	113.1092	0.2014	9e-04	0.186	0.9567
90	115.9	115.3554	108.0014	122.7094	0.4423	0.9523	0.3115	1
91	96	92.4192	84.7771	100.0612	0.1792	0	0.4917	0.0259
92	99.8	101.157	93.4172	108.8969	0.3656	0.9042	0.2205	0.6152
93	116.8	113.7184	105.7244	121.7125	0.225	0.9997	0.6174	0.9996
94	115.7	118.11	109.966	126.2539	0.281	0.6237	0.1509	1
95	99.4	109.5963	101.3363	117.8563	0.0078	0.0738	0.1897	0.9886
96	94.3	101.1365	92.7088	109.5642	0.0559	0.6568	0.6042	0.6042

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
85	0.0277	0.033	0	12.4816	0	0
86	0.0282	0.0726	0.0528	58.362	35.4218	5.9516
87	0.0272	-0.0473	0.051	29.7519	33.5318	5.7907
88	0.0325	0.0732	0.0565	64.0187	41.1535	6.4151
89	0.0336	0.0281	0.0509	8.9108	34.705	5.8911
90	0.0325	0.0047	0.0432	0.2966	28.9703	5.3824
91	0.0422	0.0387	0.0425	12.8224	26.6634	5.1637
92	0.039	-0.0134	0.0389	1.8416	23.5607	4.8539
93	0.0359	0.0271	0.0376	9.496	21.9979	4.6902
94	0.0352	-0.0204	0.0359	5.8079	20.3789	4.5143
95	0.0385	-0.093	0.0411	103.9646	27.9776	5.2894
96	0.0425	-0.0676	0.0433	46.7378	29.541	5.4352