Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[72])
60	102.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
62	100.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
63	115.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
64	100.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
65	109.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
66	114.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
67	85.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
68	100.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
69	114.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
70	116.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
71	112.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
72	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
73	106	104.6291	98.36	110.8981	0.3341	0.7945	0.9608	0.7945
74	105.3	104.889	98.6205	111.1576	0.4489	0.3642	0.9049	0.8168
75	118.8	116.5947	109.9978	123.1916	0.2562	0.9996	0.6275	1
76	106.1	106.3557	98.9623	113.7491	0.473	5e-04	0.9331	0.8759
77	109.3	109.0252	101.6015	116.4489	0.4711	0.78	0.4087	0.9682
78	117.2	114.2573	106.5109	122.0036	0.2283	0.8951	0.4654	0.999
79	92.5	90.191	82.1874	98.1946	0.2859	0	0.8797	0.0019
80	104.2	100.5248	92.451	108.5986	0.1861	0.9743	0.5024	0.3601
81	112.5	114.5878	106.3039	122.8716	0.3107	0.993	0.48	0.9986
82	122.4	117.5014	109.1064	125.8963	0.1264	0.8785	0.5924	0.9999
83	113.3	109.8448	101.371	118.3186	0.2121	0.0018	0.2399	0.9652
84	100	101.3831	92.7851	109.9812	0.3763	0.0033	0.4441	0.4441
85	110.7	102.8235	93.4662	112.1808	0.0495	0.7229	0.2529	0.5685
86	112.8	103.2284	93.8035	112.6532	0.0233	0.0601	0.3333	0.6008
87	109.8	113.8739	104.2336	123.5143	0.2038	0.5864	0.1583	0.9921
88	117.3	106.2349	96.3051	116.1647	0.0145	0.2408	0.5106	0.7984
89	109.1	105.2619	95.2544	115.2694	0.2261	0.0092	0.2145	0.7385
90	115.9	112.7793	102.5987	122.9598	0.274	0.7606	0.1974	0.981
91	96	89.0992	78.7847	99.4137	0.0949	0	0.2591	0.0071
92	99.8	98.4788	88.0921	108.8654	0.4016	0.68	0.1402	0.2532
93	116.8	113.0316	102.5303	123.5328	0.2409	0.9932	0.5395	0.9803
94	115.7	114.6121	104.0509	125.1734	0.42	0.3424	0.0742	0.9904
95	99.4	107.2338	96.6161	117.8514	0.0741	0.059	0.1314	0.833
96	94.3	100.1923	89.5025	110.882	0.14	0.5578	0.5141	0.3702

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
73	0.0306	0.0131	0	1.8795	0	0
74	0.0305	0.0039	0.0085	0.1689	1.0242	1.012
75	0.0289	0.0189	0.012	4.8633	2.3039	1.5179
76	0.0355	-0.0024	0.0096	0.0654	1.7443	1.3207
77	0.0347	0.0025	0.0082	0.0755	1.4105	1.1877
78	0.0346	0.0258	0.0111	8.6596	2.6187	1.6182
79	0.0453	0.0256	0.0132	5.3315	3.0062	1.7339
80	0.041	0.0366	0.0161	13.5072	4.3189	2.0782
81	0.0369	-0.0182	0.0163	4.3589	4.3233	2.0793
82	0.0365	0.0417	0.0189	23.9968	6.2906	2.5081
83	0.0394	0.0315	0.02	11.9383	6.8041	2.6085
84	0.0433	-0.0136	0.0195	1.913	6.3965	2.5291
85	0.0464	0.0766	0.0239	62.0399	10.6767	3.2675
86	0.0466	0.0927	0.0288	91.616	16.4581	4.0569
87	0.0432	-0.0358	0.0293	16.5971	16.4674	4.058
88	0.0477	0.1042	0.0339	122.437	23.0905	4.8053
89	0.0485	0.0365	0.0341	14.7308	22.5987	4.7538
90	0.0461	0.0277	0.0337	9.739	21.8843	4.6781
91	0.0591	0.0775	0.036	47.6209	23.2389	4.8207
92	0.0538	0.0134	0.0349	1.7457	22.1642	4.7079
93	0.0474	0.0333	0.0348	14.201	21.785	4.6674
94	0.047	0.0095	0.0337	1.1834	20.8486	4.566
95	0.0505	-0.0731	0.0354	61.3682	22.6103	4.755
96	0.0544	-0.0588	0.0364	34.719	23.1148	4.8078