Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[40])
28	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	7.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	6.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	6.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	6.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	6.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	7.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	7.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	7.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	6.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	6.8	7.0628	6.6165	7.509	0.1242	0.6086	1e-04	0.6086
42	6.4	7.2328	6.427	8.0385	0.0214	0.8538	0.4351	0.7144
43	6.7	7.2364	6.0548	8.4181	0.1868	0.9173	0.7116	0.6525
44	6.6	7.1717	5.775	8.5684	0.2112	0.746	0.7888	0.5952
45	6.4	7.0548	5.5389	8.5706	0.1986	0.7217	0.6768	0.5282
46	6.3	6.9943	5.4069	8.5817	0.1956	0.7685	0.5464	0.4972
47	6.2	6.9931	5.3267	8.6595	0.1755	0.7925	0.4968	0.4968
48	6.5	7.0314	5.2543	8.8084	0.2789	0.8204	0.4698	0.5138
49	6.8	7.055	5.1369	8.973	0.3972	0.7147	0.4411	0.5224
50	6.8	7.0425	4.9829	9.102	0.4088	0.5912	0.4782	0.5161
51	6.4	7.0001	4.8199	9.1804	0.2948	0.5714	0.5359	0.5
52	6.1	6.956	4.6765	9.2355	0.2309	0.6837	0.4849	0.4849
53	5.8	6.9301	4.56	9.3003	0.175	0.7538	0.5429	0.477
54	6.1	6.9247	4.4599	9.3895	0.256	0.8144	0.6617	0.4761
55	7.2	6.9262	4.3573	9.495	0.4173	0.7358	0.5685	0.4775
56	7.3	6.9204	4.2418	9.5989	0.3906	0.4189	0.5927	0.4768
57	6.9	6.902	4.1155	9.6885	0.4994	0.3898	0.638	0.4725
58	6.1	6.8764	3.9884	9.7644	0.2991	0.4936	0.6522	0.4666
59	5.8	6.8524	3.8684	9.8364	0.2447	0.6894	0.6659	0.4614
60	6.2	6.8353	3.7571	9.9136	0.3429	0.7451	0.5845	0.4582
61	7.1	6.8239	3.6498	9.9981	0.4323	0.65	0.5059	0.4567
62	7.7	6.8134	3.5409	10.0858	0.2977	0.4319	0.5032	0.4555
63	7.9	6.7996	3.428	10.1712	0.2612	0.3003	0.5918	0.4536
64	7.7	6.7819	3.3124	10.2514	0.302	0.2638	0.65	0.451
65	7.4	6.7627	3.1973	10.328	0.363	0.3032	0.7017	0.4481
66	7.5	6.7446	3.0851	10.4041	0.3429	0.3628	0.635	0.4456
67	8	6.7289	2.9755	10.4823	0.2534	0.3436	0.4028	0.4437
68	8.1	6.7147	2.867	10.5624	0.2402	0.2563	0.3828	0.4422

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
41	0.0322	-0.0372	0	0.069	0	0
42	0.0568	-0.1151	0.0762	0.6935	0.3813	0.6175
43	0.0833	-0.0741	0.0755	0.2878	0.3501	0.5917
44	0.0994	-0.0797	0.0765	0.3268	0.3443	0.5868
45	0.1096	-0.0928	0.0798	0.4287	0.3612	0.601
46	0.1158	-0.0993	0.083	0.4821	0.3813	0.6175
47	0.1216	-0.1134	0.0874	0.629	0.4167	0.6455
48	0.1289	-0.0756	0.0859	0.2823	0.3999	0.6324
49	0.1387	-0.0361	0.0804	0.065	0.3627	0.6022
50	0.1492	-0.0344	0.0758	0.0588	0.3323	0.5765
51	0.1589	-0.0857	0.0767	0.3602	0.3348	0.5787
52	0.1672	-0.1231	0.0806	0.7328	0.368	0.6066
53	0.1745	-0.1631	0.0869	1.2772	0.4379	0.6618
54	0.1816	-0.1191	0.0892	0.6801	0.4552	0.6747
55	0.1892	0.0395	0.0859	0.075	0.4299	0.6557
56	0.1975	0.0549	0.0839	0.1441	0.412	0.6419
57	0.206	-3e-04	0.079	0	0.3878	0.6227
58	0.2143	-0.1129	0.0809	0.6028	0.3997	0.6322
59	0.2222	-0.1536	0.0847	1.1076	0.437	0.661
60	0.2298	-0.0929	0.0851	0.4036	0.4353	0.6598
61	0.2373	0.0405	0.083	0.0762	0.4182	0.6467
62	0.245	0.1301	0.0852	0.7861	0.4349	0.6595
63	0.253	0.1618	0.0885	1.2109	0.4687	0.6846
64	0.261	0.1354	0.0904	0.8429	0.4843	0.6959
65	0.269	0.0942	0.0906	0.4062	0.4811	0.6936
66	0.2768	0.112	0.0914	0.5706	0.4846	0.6961
67	0.2846	0.1889	0.095	1.6157	0.5265	0.7256
68	0.2924	0.2063	0.099	1.9191	0.5762	0.7591