| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.4703 | -0.1022 | 0.0705 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.0802 ) | (0.1897 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.4652 | -0.0713 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.1827 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.4351 | 0 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.280199826458316 |
| 17.7002710495545 |
| 30.6669796537540 |
| 18.1219915799852 |
| 5.82091029633369 |
| -10.7817640944772 |
| -4.12248576884656 |
| -3.31756677868253 |
| -3.71111206652705 |
| -9.17933301621855 |
| -0.345682324367885 |
| -3.96191696578347 |
| -1.37285354281033 |
| -1.32471958603116 |
| -11.0472537970176 |
| -0.00273619032424222 |
| -6.94393320148697 |
| -1.78429603418527 |
| -13.001349035849 |
| -1.85334212643016 |
| -1.55515088809329 |
| 0.547689841944532 |
| -1.39522474854135 |
| -3.66636728709699 |
| -2.20653007627919 |
| -5.39935142731224 |
| -0.535912511384709 |
| -0.771130261547682 |
| 5.33421948607742 |
| 19.6778535990377 |
| 16.7002597966603 |
| -0.005476473386409 |
| 1.77337194140313 |
| 2.79093065017798 |
| 0.349114241917221 |
| -12.5236639367694 |
| 11.2789428382264 |
| -10.4543369421821 |
| -1.64383415647620 |
| 3.96628514066805 |
| -3.60860746327677 |
| 8.1127273597425 |
| -6.47419342838606 |
| -9.06548142539572 |
| -1.00364111133854 |
| -11.8399695279715 |
| -3.80077012534537 |
| 0.274655314931294 |
| -14.7639516125807 |
| 1.52215081529943 |
| -0.854263946026464 |
| -1.92238477034138 |
| 2.14549897219698 |
| -4.09725939533868 |
| 0.060267761042013 |
| -0.398214919224046 |
| 0.704550446689979 |
| -3.45030576721356 |
| 10.5172778064324 |
| -6.21539151991445 |
| 12.8795499583164 |
| -4.33205779191974 |
| 0.601616580817904 |
| 0.438913878709684 |
| -2.01121090430104 |
| -2.02691045577865 |
| 2.52074234790518 |
| -2.21171003634376 |
| -1.55592414017326 |
| 0.0701431941044746 |
| 0.754606647882127 |
| 1.40317115488554 |
| 0.844781817690773 |
| -0.423077163594996 |
| -4.07888890138386 |
| 1.52171585073810 |
| -0.90643565284239 |
| -0.95635469039749 |
| 2.04772138550243 |
| -2.99059893772764 |
| 2.13053013983600 |
| 1.77780299616666 |
| -3.24520558560980 |
| 5.59474359544606 |
| 3.29601834753703 |
| -4.44483683489892 |
| 2.41592327588074 |
| 0.67780299616669 |
| 2.96654827129981 |
| 0.864445042683997 |
| -1.56683487558189 |
| 1.79689742693301 |
| 0.245256188480823 |
| -1.42595493189339 |
| 1.57596731251971 |
| -0.543713891421021 |
| 2.07134828401115 |
| -0.530461558017464 |
| -0.843395743581084 |
| -0.399276063188552 |
| 0.815105995998067 |
| 0.0103059832866848 |
| -5.30389509169709 |
| 1.24060453604886 |
| 1.28726585795232 |
| -1.69737179772306 |
| -7.20976303067806 |
| 23.8503169638558 |
| 73.8992985708354 |
| -17.1844921934062 |
| -10.3045868632399 |
| 0.719074291087622 |
| -1.87076829314196 |
| -6.08951981481567 |
| -10.3321298220720 |
| -13.8402269566637 |
| 6.45532143442034 |
| 2.99246595769563 |
| -2.3961228872505 |
| -2.5640077101545 |
| -6.50059355547961 |
| -2.14585652626567 |
| -7.35835908123937 |
| -5.82638106778052 |
| 2.58858776458050 |
| -3.09441317059822 |
| -8.39706043218831 |
| 8.19869370435123 |
| 3.89352160695739 |
| -14.6992186780123 |
| 2.93939836577641 |
| 10.6860360067929 |
| -4.62001054842295 |
| -5.91895156518967 |
| 10.7454045487602 |
| -5.84604084443998 |
| -0.113202810898144 |
| 6.76941925729295 |
| -7.29145325587092 |
| 3.34285171060691 |
| 0.774494677644043 |
| 3.06636728709697 |
| 1.68566854368447 |
| 2.62872708011253 |
| 7.22104929910284 |
| -5.1157725476333 |
| 8.83266491200982 |
| 1.17149331031902 |
| -1.29086078075699 |
| 5.95637945165021 |
| -8.06979920464619 |
| -4.37393374608797 |
| -2.98909604689658 |
| -11.2294577992292 |
| 9.25252581255086 |
| -4.5449864827807 |
| 5.9730457236555 |
| -9.77580430726431 |
| 3.18517952791831 |
| 5.05116116572253 |
| 1.39146790084692 |
| 6.26374586712518 |
| -6.00401869072363 |
| 1.60550489020972 |
| 0.400405788971568 |
| -8.7468850463066 |
| 3.59013576357989 |
| -0.0203681024916023 |
| 2.38536837479205 |
| -8.8810607118183 |
| 6.7677825367964 |
| -6.44507412391238 |
| 1.00758335757297 |
| -5.81626726533904 |
| -5.35484501726125 |
| 0.133144777502594 |
| 2.31081739233741 |
| -4.17963759944809 |
| -3.16485083165549 |
| 6.29765840200503 |
| -0.34296411299124 |
| -6.32366393676938 |
| 0.894512008372146 |
| 5.2772532612529 |
| -5.86866947886324 |
| 4.67077948978425 |
| -5.40584209736272 |
| -5.59295959503575 |
| -1.24250438717718 |
| -8.54870845294568 |
| 1.67776358993794 |
| -0.664494565189386 |
| 10.3656365679803 |
| -3.73792573090083 |
| 1.74825206110310 |
| 3.07350211549809 |
| 0.285668543684437 |
| 0.880050170724786 |
| -5.36228442889188 |
| 1.64013016525874 |
| -7.8168102179476 |
| 5.37885627746036 |
| 3.30606798249701 |
| 2.94184224987907 |
| -2.09081696019112 |
| -0.996735502043208 |
| 0.744188262211111 |
| 1.75358932448347 |
| 5.42319634828453 |
| 71.5046078318662 |
| 79.7828473089211 |
| -49.8886082270644 |
| 8.35007726269316 |
| 3.41521839838236 |
| -11.5458171200369 |
| 6.48062229892321 |
| -17.8578520865259 |
| -4.85605796983873 |
| 2.29179595772666 |
| -1.48243450891994 |
| -0.180343557312028 |
| -2.94910745961198 |
| 3.83165986561903 |
| -6.8448683784568 |
| -10.3699948338251 |
| 0.602107642952944 |
| -4.76198554760191 |
| -14.9794454186029 |
| 8.99917927178359 |
| -5.8533949829071 |
| -0.34632411475053 |
| -7.51536234432461 |
| 3.09731441254684 |
| -6.1130522898876 |
| 3.65552954784397 |
| -6.5790508262736 |
| 3.82316372436094 |
| -7.0184390757733 |
| 5.31639086436559 |
| -2.2517784020892 |
| 2.09689742693297 |
| 18.8056869547781 |
| 29.1956339858466 |
| 5.12661060848541 |
| 24.6230427005394 |
| 6.69312625586167 |
| -2.92860532021803 |
| -5.6804805137121 |
| -19.7882719847087 |
| 1.19668145083853 |
| -11.6647824570739 |
| -7.62872266577546 |
| 0.113992961560029 |
| 7.44886338829332 |
| -10.5623957509106 |
| -4.22920253126819 |
| -5.95960799171195 |
| 2.20220206638976 |
| -6.65855804438979 |
| -5.38997620665822 |
| -8.27009495920151 |
| 2.74387452870826 |
| -3.45779028701247 |
| 0.424999408007920 |
| -0.44509996553063 |
| 5.04717843289382 |
| -3.28305153804979 |
| 3.70770254226238 |
| -8.82051754313648 |
| 3.54961778829704 |
| 0.318545776218116 |
| -3.87931945160813 |
| 10.5853863537395 |
| -18.8902729272169 |
| 8.38084602332628 |
| 17.8002191028291 |
| 4.79239424914249 |
| -9.39663979100385 |
| -1.87551308140837 |
| -3.33430163250631 |
| -7.8838834629085 |
| 5.77416188482812 |
| -1.61132900862498 |
| -10.2999314181815 |
| 2.67065352278956 |
| -7.12564926829822 |
| 0.185741539840024 |
| 2.11423811324431 |
| -1.47945661524511 |
| -0.788720513880492 |
| -7.19166686399734 |
| 0.396659057553848 |
| 6.79283362804102 |
| -8.86604127658632 |
| -1.93418352818236 |
| -0.148277902721475 |
| -0.386891612538648 |
| -2.38460061741478 |
| -6.3152251806876 |
| 5.59659047573535 |
| -0.605142921803974 |
| -9.00112972578307 |
| 15.8188560613873 |
| -2.56393018529957 |
| -8.09353280359971 |
| 7.54590368080289 |
| -7.1352425114157 |
| 1.71136604688559 |
| -4.87028714004674 |
| 3.22255218993388 |
| -5.21483737066353 |
| 18.2183637116496 |
| -15.3041479916899 |
| 5.53793821514563 |
| 6.54618016880823 |
| -10.5250173869555 |
| 3.23825066104598 |
| 1.07256565092575 |
| -2.94760898311802 |
| 0.962783560934554 |
| -9.47105489742393 |
| -0.241100334120119 |
| 11.0693877137351 |
| -3.0944175849354 |
| -3.70594879780742 |
| 9.39612288725044 |
| -6.19260774290666 |
| -6.04119917189399 |
| -4.6889588832596 |
| 16.0189875230847 |
| -6.53287507180249 |
| 0.513258035343142 |
| -3.21390768839649 |
| -4.64675466497476 |
| 2.44184666421614 |
| 26.9506867949324 |
| -23.6150699237408 |
| 13.9188236447006 |
| 19.1122113291178 |
| -1.35452783542473 |
| 6.20759142748062 |
| -11.6125080496765 |
| 19.235622458769 |
| -10.9704714582211 |
| 2.68426232989611 |
| -15.6497189940391 |
| 1.36455399673457 |
| 1.29957494447842 |
| -6.07425081356223 |
| 15.3769340330473 |
| -7.2222509406759 |
| 7.02483090804992 |
| -21.8160288959598 |
| 8.89259309793061 |
| 3.02334008698995 |
| -4.28250858544124 |
| -2.13030641543293 |
| 3.46420667330489 |
| -5.68018055205664 |
