Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[152])
140	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
141	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
142	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
143	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
144	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
145	8.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
146	8.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
147	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
148	7.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
149	7.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
150	7.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
151	8.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
152	9.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
153	9.3	9.3562	9.043	9.6693	0.3626	0.6374	1	0.6374
154	8.7	9.1871	8.6133	9.7609	0.0481	0.3499	0.9964	0.3499
155	8.2	9.0239	8.2277	9.8201	0.0213	0.7874	0.9377	0.2483
156	8.3	9.1868	8.2554	10.1182	0.031	0.9811	0.8915	0.4058
157	8.5	9.5071	8.4931	10.521	0.0258	0.9902	0.8797	0.6555
158	8.6	9.4619	8.3818	10.542	0.0589	0.9596	0.8852	0.6156
159	8.5	9.0746	7.9191	10.2301	0.1649	0.7896	0.9056	0.3511
160	8.2	8.4822	7.2419	9.7226	0.3278	0.4888	0.9397	0.0981
161	8.1	8.1755	6.8521	9.4989	0.4555	0.4855	0.9257	0.0479
162	7.9	8.2834	6.8886	9.6782	0.295	0.6017	0.8928	0.0766
163	8.6	9.4087	7.9517	10.8656	0.1383	0.9788	0.7936	0.5581
164	8.7	9.7853	8.2696	11.3009	0.0802	0.9373	0.7348	0.7348
165	8.7	9.8416	8.2041	11.4791	0.0859	0.9141	0.7416	0.7416
166	8.5	9.7658	7.9724	11.5591	0.0833	0.8779	0.8779	0.6946
167	8.4	9.66	7.7062	11.6139	0.1031	0.8777	0.9285	0.641
168	8.5	9.8143	7.7293	11.8993	0.1083	0.9082	0.9227	0.6856
169	8.7	10.081	7.8901	12.2719	0.1083	0.9214	0.9214	0.7576
170	8.7	10.008	7.721	12.2949	0.1312	0.8688	0.8862	0.728
171	8.6	9.6365	7.25	12.0231	0.1973	0.7791	0.8247	0.6089
172	8.5	9.0895	6.6	11.5791	0.3213	0.65	0.7581	0.4342
173	8.3	8.7968	6.2066	11.3869	0.3535	0.5888	0.701	0.3517
174	8	8.8919	6.2087	11.5752	0.2574	0.6673	0.7656	0.3828
175	8.2	9.9802	7.2102	12.7502	0.1039	0.9194	0.8356	0.6849
176	8.1	10.3403	7.4866	13.194	0.0619	0.9292	0.87	0.7625
177	8.1	10.4	7.4154	13.3847	0.0655	0.9345	0.8679	0.765
178	8	10.339	7.1984	13.4796	0.0722	0.9188	0.8744	0.7416
179	7.9	10.2407	6.939	13.5424	0.0823	0.9083	0.8627	0.7117
180	7.9	10.3922	6.9495	13.8349	0.078	0.922	0.8593	0.733

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
153	0.0171	-0.006	0	0.0032	0	0
154	0.0319	-0.053	0.0295	0.2373	0.1202	0.3467
155	0.045	-0.0913	0.0501	0.6788	0.3064	0.5535
156	0.0517	-0.0965	0.0617	0.7864	0.4264	0.653
157	0.0544	-0.1059	0.0706	1.0142	0.544	0.7375
158	0.0582	-0.0911	0.074	0.7429	0.5771	0.7597
159	0.065	-0.0633	0.0725	0.3302	0.5418	0.7361
160	0.0746	-0.0333	0.0676	0.0796	0.4841	0.6957
161	0.0826	-0.0092	0.0611	0.0057	0.4309	0.6564
162	0.0859	-0.0463	0.0596	0.147	0.4025	0.6344
163	0.079	-0.0859	0.062	0.6539	0.4254	0.6522
164	0.079	-0.1109	0.0661	1.1778	0.4881	0.6986
165	0.0849	-0.116	0.0699	1.3033	0.5508	0.7422
166	0.0937	-0.1296	0.0742	1.6021	0.6259	0.7911
167	0.1032	-0.1304	0.0779	1.5877	0.69	0.8307
168	0.1084	-0.1339	0.0814	1.7273	0.7548	0.8688
169	0.1109	-0.137	0.0847	1.9071	0.8226	0.907
170	0.1166	-0.1307	0.0872	1.7108	0.872	0.9338
171	0.1264	-0.1076	0.0883	1.0744	0.8826	0.9395
172	0.1397	-0.0649	0.0871	0.3475	0.8559	0.9251
173	0.1502	-0.0565	0.0857	0.2468	0.8269	0.9093
174	0.154	-0.1003	0.0863	0.7956	0.8254	0.9085
175	0.1416	-0.1784	0.0904	3.1692	0.9273	0.963
176	0.1408	-0.2167	0.0956	5.0189	1.0978	1.0478
177	0.1464	-0.2212	0.1006	5.2902	1.2655	1.125
178	0.155	-0.2262	0.1055	5.4709	1.4273	1.1947
179	0.1645	-0.2286	0.11	5.479	1.5773	1.2559
180	0.169	-0.2398	0.1147	6.2109	1.7428	1.3202