Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[32])
20	6276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	6306	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	6342	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	6345	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	6328	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	6191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	6261	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	6253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	6198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	6247	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	6293	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	6381	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	6448	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	6470	6452.4266	6273.0359	6631.8173	0.4239	0.5193	0.9452	0.5193
34	6516	6502.0465	6251.4346	6752.6585	0.4566	0.599	0.8947	0.6637
35	6532	6553.6893	6245.3799	6861.9988	0.4452	0.5947	0.9077	0.7492
36	6526	6540.9414	6130.379	6951.5038	0.4716	0.517	0.8453	0.6714
37	6533	6509.9021	5998.1573	7021.6468	0.4648	0.4754	0.889	0.5937
38	6498	6517.9786	5946.0293	7089.9278	0.4727	0.4795	0.8107	0.5948
39	6507	6540.8132	5924.1055	7157.521	0.4572	0.5541	0.8198	0.616
40	6464	6537.4399	5866.4665	7208.4132	0.4151	0.5354	0.8393	0.6031
41	6453	6521.4299	5792.5287	7250.3311	0.427	0.5614	0.7697	0.5783
42	6468	6522.3955	5747.3591	7297.432	0.4453	0.5697	0.7191	0.5746
43	6497	6533.561	5719.978	7347.144	0.4649	0.5627	0.6434	0.5817
44	6808	6533.8678	5679.4854	7388.2503	0.2647	0.5337	0.5781	0.5781
45	6793	6526.1734	5629.2146	7423.1321	0.2799	0.269	0.5488	0.5678
46	6907	6525.2919	5590.0451	7460.5387	0.2119	0.2874	0.5078	0.5643
47	6792	6530.5369	5560.9628	7500.1109	0.2986	0.2233	0.4988	0.5663
48	6757	6531.603	5527.6204	7535.5855	0.33	0.3056	0.5044	0.5648
49	6734	6528.0683	5489.1006	7567.036	0.3488	0.3329	0.4963	0.56
50	6654	6527.0233	5454.902	7599.1447	0.4082	0.3526	0.5212	0.5574
51	6589	6529.377	5426.2638	7632.4903	0.4578	0.4124	0.5159	0.5575
52	6469	6530.3046	5396.702	7663.9071	0.4578	0.4596	0.5456	0.5566
53	6521	6528.7575	5364.6672	7692.8478	0.4948	0.5401	0.5507	0.5541
54	6448	6527.9813	5334.3433	7721.6193	0.4478	0.5046	0.5392	0.5522
55	6410	6528.9838	5307.0503	7750.9172	0.4243	0.5517	0.5205	0.5517
56	6528	6529.6078	5279.9593	7779.2563	0.499	0.5744	0.3312	0.5509
57	6445	6528.9688	5251.8454	7806.0922	0.4487	0.5006	0.3427	0.5494
58	6458	6528.4816	5224.4713	7832.4919	0.4578	0.5499	0.2847	0.5481
59	6215	6528.8812	5198.7681	7858.9942	0.3219	0.5416	0.3491	0.5474
60	6167	6529.2529	5173.554	7884.9518	0.3002	0.6752	0.371	0.5468

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
33	0.0142	0.0027	0	308.8251	0	0
34	0.0197	0.0021	0.0024	194.6991	251.7621	15.867
35	0.024	-0.0033	0.0027	470.427	324.6504	18.0181
36	0.032	-0.0023	0.0026	223.2456	299.2992	17.3003
37	0.0401	0.0035	0.0028	533.515	346.1424	18.6049
38	0.0448	-0.0031	0.0028	399.1425	354.9757	18.8408
39	0.0481	-0.0052	0.0032	1143.3327	467.5982	21.624
40	0.0524	-0.0112	0.0042	5393.4116	1083.3248	32.9139
41	0.057	-0.0105	0.0049	4682.6512	1483.25	38.513
42	0.0606	-0.0083	0.0052	2958.8742	1630.8124	40.3833
43	0.0635	-0.0056	0.0053	1336.707	1604.0756	40.0509
44	0.0667	0.042	0.0083	75148.4532	7732.7737	87.9362
45	0.0701	0.0409	0.0108	71196.4572	12614.5955	112.3147
46	0.0731	0.0585	0.0142	145701.0863	22120.7734	148.7305
47	0.0757	0.04	0.016	68362.9704	25203.5866	158.7564
48	0.0784	0.0345	0.0171	50803.8106	26803.6006	163.7181
49	0.0812	0.0315	0.018	42407.8665	27721.4985	166.4977
50	0.0838	0.0195	0.018	16123.0711	27077.1415	164.5513
51	0.0862	0.0091	0.0176	3554.8968	25839.1286	160.7455
52	0.0886	-0.0094	0.0172	3758.2515	24735.0847	157.2739
53	0.091	-0.0012	0.0164	60.1781	23560.0892	153.493
54	0.0933	-0.0123	0.0162	6397.0114	22779.9493	150.9303
55	0.0955	-0.0182	0.0163	14157.1413	22405.0446	149.6831
56	0.0976	-2e-04	0.0156	2.5851	21471.6088	146.5319
57	0.0998	-0.0129	0.0155	7050.7592	20894.7748	144.5503
58	0.1019	-0.0108	0.0153	4967.6567	20282.1933	142.4156
59	0.1039	-0.0481	0.0166	98521.3793	23179.941	152.2496
60	0.1059	-0.0555	0.0179	131227.145	27038.7697	164.4347