Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[32])
20	177.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	97.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	81.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	96.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	191.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	75.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	63.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	57.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	62.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	79.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	178.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	109.3	118.4872	64.9736	172.0008	0.3683	0.0145	0.7779	0.0145
34	85.2	83.942	26.0101	141.8738	0.483	0.1955	0.5316	7e-04
35	102.7	83.1803	25.3171	141.0435	0.2542	0.4727	0.3223	7e-04
36	193.7	142.8569	83.976	201.7378	0.0453	0.9093	0.0534	0.1204
37	108.4	102.6658	44.216	161.1156	0.4238	0.0011	0.4555	0.0057
38	73.4	84.8302	26.4096	143.2508	0.3507	0.2145	0.628	9e-04
39	85.9	83.4336	24.9472	141.9199	0.4671	0.6317	0.6492	8e-04
40	58.5	79.4736	20.7306	138.2166	0.242	0.4151	0.703	5e-04
41	58.6	76.7182	18.0026	135.4338	0.2727	0.7285	0.7405	4e-04
42	62.7	82.1345	23.4202	140.8488	0.2582	0.784	0.7461	7e-04
43	77.5	89.0478	30.2999	147.7957	0.35	0.8103	0.6262	0.0015
44	180.5	145.1168	86.3955	203.838	0.1188	0.988	0.1355	0.1355
45	102.2	115.5321	43.8998	187.1644	0.3576	0.0377	0.5677	0.0435
46	82.6	90.7274	16.7222	164.7327	0.4148	0.3806	0.5582	0.0103
47	97.8	85.5344	11.6556	159.4133	0.3724	0.531	0.3244	0.007
48	197.8	108.1664	33.876	182.4568	0.009	0.6078	0.012	0.0325
49	93.8	93.2118	17.8707	168.5529	0.4939	0.0033	0.3464	0.0136
50	72.4	93.0404	17.7702	168.3105	0.2955	0.4921	0.6955	0.0134
51	77.7	100.5198	25.2863	175.7533	0.2761	0.7681	0.6484	0.0216
52	58.7	95.2039	19.7585	170.6493	0.1715	0.6753	0.8298	0.0156
53	53.1	95.349	19.937	170.7611	0.1361	0.8296	0.8302	0.0157
54	64.3	97.8716	22.4884	173.2549	0.1914	0.8778	0.8198	0.0185
55	76.4	95.9763	20.5375	171.415	0.3055	0.7947	0.6844	0.0164
56	188.4	96.0997	20.6748	171.5246	0.0082	0.6956	0.0141	0.0165
57	105.5	96.9472	21.5334	172.361	0.412	0.0087	0.4457	0.0175
58	79.8	96.2735	20.8427	171.7044	0.3343	0.4053	0.6388	0.0167
59	96.1	96.3417	20.9162	171.7671	0.4975	0.6663	0.4849	0.0168
60	202.5	96.6254	21.2037	172.0471	0.003	0.5054	0.0043	0.0171

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
33	0.2304	-0.0775	0	84.4042	0	0
34	0.3521	0.015	0.0463	1.5826	42.9934	6.5569
35	0.3549	0.2347	0.1091	381.0195	155.6688	12.4767
36	0.2103	0.3559	0.1708	2585.0198	763.0065	27.6226
37	0.2905	0.0559	0.1478	32.8807	616.9814	24.8391
38	0.3514	-0.1347	0.1456	130.6494	535.926	23.1501
39	0.3576	0.0296	0.129	6.0833	460.2342	21.4531
40	0.3771	-0.2639	0.1459	439.8914	457.6914	21.3937
41	0.3905	-0.2362	0.1559	328.2681	443.311	21.055
42	0.3647	-0.2366	0.164	377.7	436.7499	20.8986
43	0.3366	-0.1297	0.1609	133.3511	409.1682	20.2279
44	0.2065	0.2438	0.1678	1251.9732	479.4019	21.8952
45	0.3163	-0.1154	0.1638	177.7447	456.1975	21.3588
46	0.4162	-0.0896	0.1585	66.0551	428.3302	20.6961
47	0.4407	0.1434	0.1575	150.444	409.8045	20.2436
48	0.3504	0.8287	0.1994	8034.1787	886.3279	29.7713
49	0.4124	0.0063	0.188	0.346	834.2113	28.8827
50	0.4128	-0.2218	0.1899	426.0249	811.5343	28.4874
51	0.3819	-0.227	0.1919	520.743	796.2295	28.2175
52	0.4043	-0.3834	0.2015	1332.5346	823.0447	28.6888
53	0.4035	-0.4431	0.213	1784.9813	868.8512	29.4763
54	0.393	-0.343	0.2189	1127.0548	880.5877	29.6747
55	0.401	-0.204	0.2182	383.2307	858.9635	29.3081
56	0.4004	0.9605	0.2492	8519.3504	1178.1463	34.3241
57	0.3969	0.0882	0.2427	73.1498	1133.9465	33.6741
58	0.3997	-0.1711	0.24	271.3777	1100.7707	33.1779
59	0.3994	-0.0025	0.2312	0.0584	1060.0036	32.5577
60	0.3982	1.0957	0.262	11209.4347	1422.4833	37.7158