Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[33])
21	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	7.7	7.9902	7.6615	8.3188	0.0418	0.4766	0.0323	0.4766
35	7.2	7.8978	7.4849	8.3106	5e-04	0.8261	0.3137	0.3137
36	7.5	7.8586	7.4102	8.307	0.0585	0.998	0.0678	0.2683
37	7.3	7.8607	7.3865	8.3348	0.0102	0.932	0.1612	0.2823
38	7	7.9466	7.423	8.4702	2e-04	0.9922	0.2829	0.4208
39	7	7.9884	7.3867	8.5901	6e-04	0.9994	0.4849	0.4849
40	7	7.9935	7.3097	8.6774	0.0022	0.9978	0.6057	0.4926
41	7.2	7.9143	7.181	8.6476	0.0281	0.9927	0.5152	0.4094
42	7.3	7.8708	7.1126	8.6289	0.07	0.9585	0.3691	0.3691
43	7.1	7.859	7.0843	8.6337	0.0274	0.9214	0.3607	0.3607
44	6.8	7.9315	7.1288	8.7341	0.0029	0.9788	0.5306	0.4335
45	6.4	7.976	7.1261	8.8258	1e-04	0.9967	0.4779	0.4779
46	6.1	7.9936	7.0861	8.9011	0	0.9997	0.737	0.4945
47	6.5	7.928	6.9796	8.8764	0.0016	0.9999	0.9338	0.4409
48	7.7	7.8833	6.9121	8.8545	0.3557	0.9974	0.7804	0.4069
49	7.9	7.8604	6.875	8.8458	0.4686	0.6252	0.8675	0.3906
50	7.5	7.9192	6.9134	8.925	0.207	0.5149	0.9634	0.4374
51	6.9	7.9635	6.9237	9.0032	0.0225	0.8088	0.9653	0.4725
52	6.6	7.9909	6.906	9.0759	0.006	0.9756	0.9633	0.4935
53	6.9	7.9389	6.8178	9.0599	0.0347	0.9904	0.9018	0.4574
54	7.7	7.8956	6.7523	9.0389	0.3687	0.9561	0.8464	0.429
55	8	7.8642	6.7074	9.021	0.409	0.6096	0.9023	0.409
56	8	7.9097	6.7364	9.0831	0.4401	0.4401	0.9681	0.4401
57	7.7	7.9515	6.7519	9.151	0.3406	0.4684	0.9944	0.4684
58	7.3	7.9862	6.7497	9.2226	0.1384	0.675	0.9986	0.4913
59	7.4	7.9469	6.6778	9.2161	0.1992	0.8411	0.9873	0.4673
60	8.1	7.9072	6.616	9.1983	0.3849	0.7793	0.6234	0.444
61	8.3	7.8698	6.5652	9.1743	0.259	0.3647	0.4819	0.4224

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
34	0.021	-0.0363	0	0.0842	0	0
35	0.0267	-0.0883	0.0623	0.4869	0.2855	0.5344
36	0.0291	-0.0456	0.0568	0.1286	0.2332	0.4829
37	0.0308	-0.0713	0.0604	0.3144	0.2535	0.5035
38	0.0336	-0.1191	0.0721	0.8961	0.382	0.6181
39	0.0384	-0.1237	0.0807	0.9769	0.4812	0.6937
40	0.0436	-0.1243	0.087	0.9871	0.5534	0.7439
41	0.0473	-0.0903	0.0874	0.5102	0.548	0.7403
42	0.0491	-0.0725	0.0857	0.3258	0.5233	0.7234
43	0.0503	-0.0966	0.0868	0.5761	0.5286	0.7271
44	0.0516	-0.1427	0.0919	1.2802	0.5969	0.7726
45	0.0544	-0.1976	0.1007	2.4836	0.7542	0.8684
46	0.0579	-0.2369	0.1112	3.5857	0.972	0.9859
47	0.061	-0.1801	0.1161	2.0392	1.0482	1.0238
48	0.0629	-0.0233	0.1099	0.0336	0.9806	0.9902
49	0.064	0.005	0.1034	0.0016	0.9194	0.9588
50	0.0648	-0.0529	0.1004	0.1757	0.8756	0.9358
51	0.0666	-0.1335	0.1022	1.131	0.8898	0.9433
52	0.0693	-0.1741	0.106	1.9347	0.9448	0.972
53	0.072	-0.1309	0.1073	1.0792	0.9515	0.9755
54	0.0739	-0.0248	0.1033	0.0383	0.908	0.9529
55	0.075	0.0173	0.0994	0.0184	0.8676	0.9315
56	0.0757	0.0114	0.0956	0.0081	0.8302	0.9112
57	0.077	-0.0316	0.0929	0.0632	0.7983	0.8935
58	0.079	-0.0859	0.0926	0.4708	0.7852	0.8861
59	0.0815	-0.0688	0.0917	0.2991	0.7665	0.8755
60	0.0833	0.0244	0.0892	0.0372	0.7395	0.8599
61	0.0846	0.0547	0.088	0.1851	0.7197	0.8483