Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	7.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	7.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	7.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	7.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	7.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	7.3	7.3554	7.0367	7.674	0.3667	0.8304	0	0.8304
50	7.1	7.3144	6.7634	7.8655	0.2228	0.5205	0.0074	0.658
51	6.8	7.0942	6.4019	7.7866	0.2024	0.4935	0.0113	0.3823
52	6.4	7.0752	6.3361	7.8142	0.0367	0.7672	0.0071	0.3703
53	6.1	6.7878	6.0433	7.5323	0.0351	0.8463	0.0082	0.1389
54	6.5	6.4093	5.6645	7.1541	0.4057	0.7922	0.0187	0.0187
55	7.7	6.8016	6.0525	7.5507	0.0094	0.785	0.0338	0.1486
56	7.9	6.7051	5.9269	7.4833	0.0013	0.0061	0.067	0.1063
57	7.5	6.409	5.5679	7.2502	0.0055	3e-04	0.0842	0.0327
58	6.9	6.3643	5.4568	7.2719	0.1237	0.0071	0.0849	0.0356
59	6.6	6.312	5.3636	7.2605	0.2759	0.1122	0.0776	0.0333
60	6.9	6.4755	5.5107	7.4403	0.1943	0.4002	0.0705	0.0705

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0221	-0.0075	6e-04	0.0031	3e-04	0.016
50	0.0384	-0.0293	0.0024	0.046	0.0038	0.0619
51	0.0498	-0.0415	0.0035	0.0866	0.0072	0.0849
52	0.0533	-0.0954	0.008	0.4559	0.038	0.1949
53	0.056	-0.1013	0.0084	0.473	0.0394	0.1985
54	0.0593	0.0141	0.0012	0.0082	7e-04	0.0262
55	0.0562	0.1321	0.011	0.8072	0.0673	0.2594
56	0.0592	0.1782	0.0149	1.4278	0.119	0.3449
57	0.067	0.1702	0.0142	1.1902	0.0992	0.3149
58	0.0728	0.0842	0.007	0.2869	0.0239	0.1546
59	0.0767	0.0456	0.0038	0.0829	0.0069	0.0831
60	0.076	0.0656	0.0055	0.1802	0.015	0.1225