Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[31])
19	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	9.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	9.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	9.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	9.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	9.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	9.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	9.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	8.8	9.2454	8.9498	9.5409	0.0016	0.6182	0.9482	0.6182
33	8.3	9.1028	8.5778	9.6278	0.0014	0.8708	0.6494	0.3583
34	8.4	9.8034	9.174	10.4327	0	1	0.5042	0.9699
35	8.1	10.0385	9.3721	10.705	0	1	0.5451	0.9932
36	7.7	9.9458	9.252	10.6395	0	1	0.6598	0.9824
37	7.9	9.5097	8.7642	10.2552	0	1	0.7093	0.7923
38	7.9	9.2079	8.3858	10.03	9e-04	0.9991	0.6899	0.5075
39	8	9.1821	8.2843	10.08	0.0049	0.9974	0.6545	0.4844
40	7.9	9.2872	8.3308	10.2436	0.0022	0.9958	0.6494	0.571
41	7.6	9.3221	8.316	10.3281	4e-04	0.9972	0.6674	0.594
42	7.1	9.3626	8.3051	10.4202	0	0.9995	0.6868	0.6185
43	6.8	9.4842	8.3677	10.6007	0	1	0.6911	0.6911
44	6.5	9.539	8.2274	10.8506	0	1	0.8653	0.6938
45	6.9	9.4058	7.8524	10.9592	8e-04	0.9999	0.9185	0.6024
46	8.2	10.1266	8.4074	11.8458	0.014	0.9999	0.9755	0.8546
47	8.7	10.3861	8.5635	12.2088	0.0349	0.9906	0.993	0.8989
48	8.3	10.3166	8.4012	12.2321	0.0195	0.951	0.9963	0.8734
49	7.9	9.898	7.8632	11.9328	0.0271	0.9381	0.9729	0.7493
50	7.5	9.6127	7.4365	11.7888	0.0285	0.9385	0.9385	0.6449
51	7.8	9.6044	7.2891	11.9196	0.0633	0.9626	0.9128	0.6339
52	8.3	9.73	7.2928	12.1671	0.1251	0.9397	0.9295	0.665
53	8.4	9.785	7.2353	12.3348	0.1435	0.8732	0.9535	0.6735
54	8.2	9.8453	7.1813	12.5094	0.113	0.8562	0.9783	0.6825
55	7.7	9.9851	7.1995	12.7707	0.0539	0.8954	0.9875	0.7097
56	7.2	10.0586	7.0371	13.08	0.0318	0.937	0.9895	0.7112
57	7.3	9.9442	6.645	13.2435	0.0581	0.9485	0.9647	0.6708
58	8.1	10.6847	7.1647	14.2048	0.075	0.9703	0.9167	0.7958
59	8.5	10.9635	7.2777	14.6492	0.0951	0.9361	0.8856	0.8258

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
32	0.0163	-0.0482	0	0.1984	0	0
33	0.0294	-0.0882	0.0682	0.6444	0.4214	0.6492
34	0.0328	-0.1432	0.0932	1.9695	0.9374	0.9682
35	0.0339	-0.1931	0.1182	3.7579	1.6425	1.2816
36	0.0356	-0.2258	0.1397	5.0436	2.3227	1.5241
37	0.04	-0.1693	0.1446	2.5912	2.3675	1.5387
38	0.0456	-0.142	0.1442	1.7105	2.2736	1.5079
39	0.0499	-0.1287	0.1423	1.3974	2.1641	1.4711
40	0.0525	-0.1494	0.1431	1.9244	2.1375	1.462
41	0.0551	-0.1847	0.1473	2.9655	2.2203	1.4901
42	0.0576	-0.2417	0.1558	5.1195	2.4838	1.576
43	0.0601	-0.283	0.1664	7.2049	2.8773	1.6963
44	0.0702	-0.3186	0.1781	9.2355	3.3664	1.8348
45	0.0843	-0.2664	0.1844	6.279	3.5744	1.8906
46	0.0866	-0.1903	0.1848	3.7118	3.5836	1.893
47	0.0895	-0.1623	0.1834	2.8431	3.5373	1.8808
48	0.0947	-0.1955	0.1841	4.0669	3.5684	1.889
49	0.1049	-0.2019	0.1851	3.992	3.592	1.8953
50	0.1155	-0.2198	0.1869	4.4633	3.6378	1.9073
51	0.123	-0.1879	0.187	3.2557	3.6187	1.9023
52	0.1278	-0.147	0.1851	2.0448	3.5438	1.8825
53	0.1329	-0.1415	0.1831	1.9183	3.4699	1.8628
54	0.1381	-0.1671	0.1824	2.7072	3.4367	1.8538
55	0.1423	-0.2288	0.1843	5.2215	3.5111	1.8738
56	0.1533	-0.2842	0.1883	8.1714	3.6975	1.9229
57	0.1693	-0.2659	0.1913	6.9919	3.8242	1.9556
58	0.1681	-0.2419	0.1932	6.6809	3.93	1.9824
59	0.1715	-0.2247	0.1943	6.0687	4.0064	2.0016