Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
47	443	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	442	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	444	447.3554	435.5271	459.1838	0.2891	0.8126	0.8126	0.8126
50	438	456.0698	437.8376	474.302	0.026	0.9028	0.9028	0.9348
51	427	454.4422	431.43	477.4544	0.0097	0.9193	0.9193	0.8554
52	424	449.3291	423.3914	475.2668	0.0278	0.9542	0.9542	0.7102
53	416	440.6467	413.4346	467.8588	0.0379	0.8847	0.8847	0.4612
54	406	436.361	407.0154	465.7066	0.0213	0.9131	0.9131	0.3532
55	431	437.1555	404.7925	469.5185	0.3547	0.9704	0.9704	0.3846
56	434	439.7682	402.7463	476.7901	0.38	0.6787	0.6787	0.453
57	418	441.2811	399.3462	483.216	0.1383	0.6332	0.6332	0.4866
58	412	438.8362	392.7337	484.9386	0.127	0.8121	0.8121	0.4465
59	404	434.2737	384.5788	483.9685	0.1162	0.8102	0.8102	0.3803
60	409	430.115	377.0868	483.1431	0.2176	0.8328	0.8328	0.3302
61	412	428.1679	371.3299	485.0059	0.2886	0.7457	0.7457	0.3167
62	406	428.3852	367.0807	489.6896	0.2371	0.6998	0.6998	0.3317
63	398	428.7401	362.5285	494.9518	0.1814	0.7496	0.7496	0.3473
64	397	427.8079	356.6629	498.9529	0.198	0.7942	0.7942	0.3479
65	385	425.2382	349.4334	501.043	0.1491	0.7673	0.7673	0.3324
66	390	422.0937	341.7823	502.4051	0.2167	0.8173	0.8173	0.3135
67	413	419.6702	334.7708	504.5697	0.4388	0.7533	0.7533	0.3031
68	413	418.3965	328.6104	508.1825	0.4531	0.5469	0.5469	0.3032
69	401	417.7966	322.8076	512.7857	0.3645	0.5394	0.5394	0.3087
70	397	416.9209	316.5734	517.2685	0.3486	0.6221	0.6221	0.3121
71	397	415.2508	309.5499	520.9518	0.3675	0.6325	0.6325	0.3099
72	409	412.9748	301.9825	523.967	0.472	0.6111	0.6111	0.3041

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0135	-0.0075	0	11.259	0	0
50	0.0204	-0.0396	0.0236	326.5169	168.888	12.9957
51	0.0258	-0.0604	0.0358	753.074	363.6167	19.0687
52	0.0295	-0.0564	0.041	641.5649	433.1037	20.8111
53	0.0315	-0.0559	0.044	607.4599	467.975	21.6327
54	0.0343	-0.0696	0.0482	921.7882	543.6105	23.3155
55	0.0378	-0.0141	0.0434	37.8901	471.3647	21.7109
56	0.043	-0.0131	0.0396	33.2725	416.6032	20.4109
57	0.0485	-0.0528	0.041	542.0103	430.5373	20.7494
58	0.0536	-0.0612	0.043	720.1795	459.5015	21.436
59	0.0584	-0.0697	0.0455	916.4957	501.0465	22.3841
60	0.0629	-0.0491	0.0458	445.8429	496.4462	22.2811
61	0.0677	-0.0378	0.0452	261.4016	478.3658	21.8716
62	0.073	-0.0523	0.0457	501.0959	479.9894	21.9087
63	0.0788	-0.0717	0.0474	944.9567	510.9872	22.605
64	0.0848	-0.072	0.0489	949.1263	538.3709	23.2028
65	0.091	-0.0946	0.0516	1619.1099	601.9438	24.5345
66	0.0971	-0.076	0.053	1030.0054	625.725	25.0145
67	0.1032	-0.0159	0.051	44.4919	595.1338	24.3954
68	0.1095	-0.0129	0.0491	29.1218	566.8332	23.8083
69	0.116	-0.0402	0.0487	282.1273	553.2757	23.5218
70	0.1228	-0.0478	0.0487	396.8436	546.1652	23.3702
71	0.1299	-0.044	0.0485	333.0929	536.9012	23.1711
72	0.1371	-0.0096	0.0468	15.7987	515.1886	22.6978