Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[44])
32	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.1	8.2114	7.8951	8.5277	0.245	0.755	0.0012	0.755
46	8	8.4168	7.9284	8.9051	0.0472	0.8982	0.3692	0.8982
47	7.9	8.6647	8.1072	9.2222	0.0036	0.9903	0.8239	0.9764
48	7.9	8.9549	8.3968	9.5129	1e-04	0.9999	0.9449	0.9987
49	8	8.9602	8.3865	9.534	5e-04	0.9999	0.813	0.9984
50	8	8.5762	7.9819	9.1704	0.0287	0.9713	0.3415	0.9418
51	7.9	8.0688	7.4747	8.6629	0.2888	0.5898	0.0398	0.459
52	8	7.737	7.1154	8.3586	0.2035	0.3037	0.0081	0.1262
53	7.7	7.6929	6.9916	8.3943	0.4921	0.1954	0.0449	0.1276
54	7.2	7.7677	6.9921	8.5432	0.0757	0.5679	0.2785	0.2005
55	7.5	8.4509	7.6411	9.2607	0.0107	0.9988	0.7282	0.8022
56	7.3	8.4921	7.6764	9.3078	0.0021	0.9914	0.827	0.827
57	7	8.384	7.5373	9.2306	7e-04	0.994	0.7445	0.7445
58	7	8.1494	7.2536	9.0451	0.006	0.994	0.6281	0.543
59	7	8.0444	7.0865	9.0023	0.0163	0.9837	0.6162	0.4547
60	7.2	8.244	7.2378	9.2502	0.021	0.9923	0.7486	0.6105
61	7.3	8.4482	7.4054	9.491	0.0155	0.9905	0.8002	0.7436
62	7.1	8.3792	7.309	9.4494	0.0096	0.9759	0.7563	0.6954
63	6.8	8.1008	6.9982	9.2034	0.0104	0.9624	0.6394	0.5006
64	6.4	7.7732	6.6254	8.921	0.0095	0.9517	0.3493	0.2884
65	6.1	7.5324	6.3204	8.7445	0.0103	0.9665	0.3932	0.1794
66	6.5	7.3426	6.0548	8.6305	0.0998	0.9707	0.5859	0.1245
67	7.7	7.8561	6.4915	9.2207	0.4113	0.9743	0.6955	0.3631
68	7.9	7.9026	6.4695	9.3358	0.4986	0.6092	0.7951	0.3936
69	7.5	7.9439	6.3831	9.5048	0.2886	0.522	0.8821	0.4223
70	6.9	7.887	6.1944	9.5797	0.1265	0.673	0.8478	0.4026
71	6.6	7.8721	6.069	9.6752	0.0834	0.8547	0.8284	0.4022
72	6.9	8.024	6.1482	9.8997	0.1201	0.9316	0.8054	0.4683

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
45	0.0197	-0.0136	0	0.0124	0	0
46	0.0296	-0.0495	0.0315	0.1737	0.093	0.305
47	0.0328	-0.0883	0.0504	0.5847	0.2569	0.5069
48	0.0318	-0.1178	0.0673	1.1127	0.4709	0.6862
49	0.0327	-0.1072	0.0753	0.9221	0.5611	0.7491
50	0.0354	-0.0672	0.0739	0.332	0.5229	0.7231
51	0.0376	-0.0209	0.0663	0.0285	0.4523	0.6725
52	0.041	0.034	0.0623	0.0692	0.4044	0.6359
53	0.0465	9e-04	0.0555	0	0.3595	0.5996
54	0.0509	-0.0731	0.0572	0.3222	0.3558	0.5964
55	0.0489	-0.1125	0.0623	0.9043	0.4056	0.6369
56	0.049	-0.1404	0.0688	1.4211	0.4902	0.7002
57	0.0515	-0.1651	0.0762	1.9154	0.5999	0.7745
58	0.0561	-0.141	0.0808	1.321	0.6514	0.8071
59	0.0608	-0.1298	0.0841	1.0908	0.6807	0.825
60	0.0623	-0.1266	0.0867	1.09	0.7063	0.8404
61	0.063	-0.1359	0.0896	1.3184	0.7423	0.8615
62	0.0652	-0.1527	0.0931	1.6363	0.7919	0.8899
63	0.0694	-0.1606	0.0967	1.6921	0.8393	0.9161
64	0.0753	-0.1767	0.1007	1.8856	0.8916	0.9443
65	0.0821	-0.1902	0.1049	2.0519	0.9469	0.9731
66	0.0895	-0.1148	0.1054	0.71	0.9361	0.9675
67	0.0886	-0.0199	0.1017	0.0244	0.8965	0.9468
68	0.0925	-3e-04	0.0975	0	0.8591	0.9269
69	0.1002	-0.0559	0.0958	0.1971	0.8326	0.9125
70	0.1095	-0.1251	0.0969	0.9742	0.8381	0.9155
71	0.1169	-0.1616	0.0993	1.6183	0.867	0.9311
72	0.1193	-0.1401	0.1008	1.2633	0.8811	0.9387