| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 283.042 | 283.042 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 276.687 | 279.643099949226 | -2.92361682846477 | -2.95609994922578 | -1.60260866952763 |
| 3 | 277.915 | 276.140559463114 | -3.26175628566210 | 1.77444053688619 | -0.125865216510943 |
| 4 | 277.128 | 275.559759426404 | -1.65533158744298 | 1.56824057359594 | 0.625674700662030 |
| 5 | 277.103 | 276.338883741368 | -0.180007006998245 | 0.764116258632077 | 0.536882429936485 |
| 6 | 275.037 | 275.60117321584 | -0.51149442481712 | -0.564173215840185 | -0.120727948617283 |
| 7 | 270.15 | 271.60358070987 | -2.58377139671973 | -1.45358070987009 | -0.761464920927339 |
| 8 | 267.14 | 267.303320934953 | -3.60804292510288 | -0.163320934952686 | -0.376027613640751 |
| 9 | 264.993 | 264.329183977815 | -3.22942193172469 | 0.663816022184723 | 0.138895032605294 |
| 10 | 287.259 | 278.896504964221 | 7.39846997122516 | 8.36249503577857 | 3.89920571124566 |
| 11 | 291.186 | 291.461100071561 | 10.4826558430896 | -0.275100071561301 | 1.13156009519430 |
| 12 | 292.3 | 295.863621442826 | 6.85348046703138 | -3.56362144282566 | -1.33148594559240 |
| 13 | 288.186 | 292.255746405733 | 0.659880772553535 | -4.06974640573311 | -2.31104249620351 |
| 14 | 281.477 | 286.251855201344 | -3.29403221142526 | -4.77485520134415 | -1.46225990329933 |
| 15 | 282.656 | 281.892745223988 | -3.90720772337637 | 0.763254776012354 | -0.222981966516256 |
| 16 | 280.19 | 279.177391289139 | -3.22641961421955 | 1.01260871086094 | 0.253176943380808 |
| 17 | 280.408 | 278.155724777872 | -1.94890680913889 | 2.25227522212757 | 0.472296549723932 |
| 18 | 276.836 | 275.44314718552 | -2.3901821268414 | 1.39285281447971 | -0.161077836539959 |
| 19 | 275.216 | 273.85075963422 | -1.93187859289896 | 1.36524036577975 | 0.167747256630069 |
| 20 | 274.352 | 274.118593889419 | -0.666967996970173 | 0.233406110580757 | 0.464367161811322 |
| 21 | 271.311 | 277.005124913504 | 1.38092983527905 | -5.69412491350405 | 0.751506378766255 |
| 22 | 289.802 | 282.616787170681 | 3.82032419108576 | 7.18521282931867 | 0.894942062131855 |
| 23 | 290.726 | 288.395970810411 | 4.94872345148285 | 2.33002918958949 | 0.414038742564155 |
| 24 | 292.3 | 292.35330596947 | 4.37838610119883 | -0.0533059694697586 | -0.209592664946352 |
| 25 | 278.506 | 285.316536319926 | -2.19633091444993 | -6.81053631992616 | -2.42343573801538 |
| 26 | 269.826 | 276.256467579431 | -6.14771431710252 | -6.43046757943118 | -1.45003376242421 |
| 27 | 265.861 | 266.634641590441 | -8.12879440977871 | -0.773641590440527 | -0.724380148669477 |
| 28 | 269.034 | 265.086978257636 | -4.3924438531557 | 3.9470217423637 | 1.37611885262853 |
| 29 | 264.176 | 261.384315302726 | -3.99864143943873 | 2.79168469727378 | 0.145243433947237 |
| 30 | 255.198 | 254.689111649302 | -5.54084907698173 | 0.508888350698388 | -0.565358817642569 |
| 31 | 253.353 | 251.237668901975 | -4.34973827492976 | 2.11533109802521 | 0.435929106413505 |
| 32 | 246.057 | 247.567923625875 | -3.96258950990762 | -1.51092362587526 | 0.141949478481996 |
| 33 | 235.372 | 243.730269033852 | -3.89139064501295 | -8.3582690338519 | 0.0261260507276766 |
| 34 | 258.556 | 248.955687365365 | 1.30715314276691 | 9.60031263463508 | 1.90760936506891 |
| 35 | 260.993 | 256.290579633762 | 4.74320958488971 | 4.70242036623771 | 1.26134079557061 |
| 36 | 254.663 | 253.667085475468 | 0.543443375764997 | 0.995914524532434 | -1.54329364666324 |
| 37 | 250.643 | 253.641545189888 | 0.218748236195865 | -2.99854518988786 | -0.119323540000477 |
| 38 | 243.422 | 250.621368195597 | -1.62730637310546 | -7.1993681955969 | -0.676709885244777 |
| 39 | 247.105 | 249.983560617877 | -1.06592851870523 | -2.87856061787672 | 0.205616875082688 |
| 40 | 248.541 | 246.003758049731 | -2.71543378950017 | 2.53724195026863 | -0.606230501450016 |
| 41 | 245.039 | 241.424549571363 | -3.77324081855548 | 3.61445042863657 | -0.389366177369497 |
| 42 | 237.08 | 236.939737742876 | -4.17786799784796 | 0.140262257124481 | -0.148538252076744 |
| 43 | 237.085 | 233.95956975557 | -3.49776021738589 | 3.12543024443020 | 0.249143942575550 |
| 44 | 225.554 | 228.694666217751 | -4.49947570767945 | -3.14066621775122 | -0.367107800009838 |
| 45 | 226.839 | 234.702560242164 | 1.45475009444517 | -7.86356024216446 | 2.18424387096914 |
| 46 | 247.934 | 239.935409873783 | 3.59631437949716 | 7.99859012621723 | 0.78606664695112 |
| 47 | 248.333 | 241.837933750243 | 2.6358952621466 | 6.49506624975652 | -0.352698905034626 |
| 48 | 246.969 | 245.163425907907 | 3.0271714506196 | 1.80557409209291 | 0.143736203847724 |
| 49 | 245.098 | 247.574727806296 | 2.67755544773851 | -2.47672780629557 | -0.128339536551380 |
| 50 | 246.263 | 252.688653132227 | 4.05883059350544 | -6.42565313222742 | 0.506263793426672 |
| 51 | 255.765 | 257.312633909106 | 4.37833178738536 | -1.54763390910607 | 0.117099126771383 |
| 52 | 264.319 | 261.029390743114 | 4.00478444917048 | 3.28960925688568 | -0.137195330543637 |
| 53 | 268.347 | 264.245999316680 | 3.55907301537736 | 4.10100068332029 | -0.163895920974508 |
| 54 | 273.046 | 271.033684397402 | 5.38764542366191 | 2.01231560259847 | 0.671488106668861 |
| 55 | 273.963 | 272.762415832025 | 3.31660379504582 | 1.20058416797530 | -0.75918263216 |
| 56 | 267.43 | 275.194322775954 | 2.81665594756149 | -7.76432277595415 | -0.183216475363602 |
| 57 | 271.993 | 280.186083401745 | 4.04463347747718 | -8.19308340174468 | 0.450382121364642 |
| 58 | 292.71 | 284.211792784952 | 4.03394963943675 | 8.4982072150479 | -0.00392200071173293 |
| 59 | 295.881 | 289.068561433317 | 4.49877102502402 | 6.81243856668293 | 0.170729131214369 |
| 60 | 293.299 | 292.135336776130 | 3.68914657189752 | 1.16366322386956 | -0.2973494716982 |
