Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[60])
48	136919	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	136151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	133001	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	125554	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	119647	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	114158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	116193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	152803	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	161761	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	160942	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	149470	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	139208	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	134588	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	130322	133820	128656.5945	138983.4055	0.0921	0.3853	0.1881	0.3853
62	126611	130670	123367.8419	137972.1581	0.138	0.5372	0.2658	0.1465
63	122401	123223	114279.7193	132166.2807	0.4285	0.2289	0.3047	0.0064
64	117352	117316	106989.1889	127642.8111	0.4973	0.1672	0.3291	5e-04
65	112135	111827	100281.2742	123372.7258	0.4792	0.1741	0.3462	1e-04
66	112879	113862	101214.2911	126509.7089	0.4395	0.6055	0.359	7e-04
67	148729	150472	136810.913	164133.087	0.4013	1	0.369	0.9887
68	157230	159430	144825.6837	174034.3163	0.3839	0.9245	0.3772	0.9996
69	157221	158611	143120.7834	174101.2166	0.4302	0.5694	0.384	0.9988
70	146681	147139	130810.878	163467.122	0.4781	0.1131	0.3898	0.934
71	136524	136877	119751.9212	154002.0788	0.4839	0.1309	0.3948	0.6033
72	132111	132257	114370.4385	150143.5615	0.4936	0.32	0.3992	0.3992

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
61	0.0197	-0.0261	0	12236004	0	0
62	0.0285	-0.0311	0.0286	16475481	14355742.5	3788.8973
63	0.037	-0.0067	0.0213	675684	9795723	3129.812
64	0.0449	3e-04	0.016	1296	7347116.25	2710.5564
65	0.0527	0.0028	0.0134	94864	5896665.8	2428.3051
66	0.0567	-0.0086	0.0126	966289	5074936.3333	2252.7619
67	0.0463	-0.0116	0.0125	3038049	4783952.4286	2187.2248
68	0.0467	-0.0138	0.0126	4840000	4790958.375	2188.8258
69	0.0498	-0.0088	0.0122	1932100	4473307.4444	2115.0195
70	0.0566	-0.0031	0.0113	209764	4046953.1	2011.704
71	0.0638	-0.0026	0.0105	124609	3690376.3636	1921.0352
72	0.069	-0.0011	0.0097	21316	3384621.3333	1839.734