Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[33])
21	3.77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	3.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	3.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	3.81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	3.82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	3.89	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	4.05	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	4.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	4.07	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	4.26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	4.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	4.61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	4.63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	4.48	4.7202	4.1833	5.2571	0.1903	0.629	0.9998	0.629
35	4.46	4.8144	4.1552	5.4737	0.146	0.8399	0.9992	0.7083
36	4.45	4.9222	4.1449	5.6995	0.1169	0.8781	0.9975	0.7694
37	4.32	5.0195	4.1308	5.9081	0.0614	0.8954	0.9959	0.8048
38	4.52	5.1149	4.09	6.1399	0.1276	0.9358	0.9904	0.8231
39	4.21	5.2103	4.0401	6.3806	0.0469	0.8762	0.974	0.8345
40	3.97	5.3074	3.9865	6.6283	0.0236	0.9483	0.9634	0.8426
41	4.12	5.4045	3.9293	6.8798	0.0439	0.9717	0.9619	0.8483
42	4.5	5.5015	3.866	7.1369	0.115	0.9511	0.9316	0.8518
43	4.73	5.5982	3.7964	7.3999	0.1725	0.8839	0.9038	0.8539
44	5.26	5.6949	3.7213	7.6685	0.3329	0.831	0.8594	0.8549
45	4.52	5.7917	3.6411	7.9423	0.1232	0.686	0.8551	0.8551
46	4.94	5.8885	3.5559	8.2211	0.2127	0.8749	0.8817	0.8549
47	4.95	5.9853	3.4658	8.5048	0.2103	0.7919	0.8823	0.8541
48	3.52	6.0821	3.3709	8.7933	0.032	0.7934	0.881	0.8531
49	3.85	6.1789	3.2713	9.0865	0.0582	0.9635	0.8949	0.8518
50	2.41	6.2757	3.1672	9.3843	0.0074	0.9369	0.8659	0.8503
51	2.95	6.3725	3.0586	9.6865	0.0215	0.9905	0.8996	0.8486
52	2.68	6.4693	2.9456	9.993	0.0175	0.9749	0.9178	0.8469
53	2.53	6.5661	2.8283	10.3039	0.0172	0.9792	0.9002	0.845
54	2.44	6.6629	2.7069	10.6189	0.0182	0.9797	0.8581	0.8431
55	2.16	6.7597	2.5814	10.938	0.0155	0.9786	0.8295	0.8411
56	2.2	6.8565	2.4518	11.2612	0.0191	0.9817	0.7613	0.8391
57	2.1	6.9533	2.3183	11.5883	0.0201	0.9778	0.8483	0.8371
58	2.29	7.0501	2.1809	11.9193	0.0277	0.9768	0.8022	0.835
59	2.03	7.1469	2.0396	12.2542	0.0248	0.9688	0.8004	0.833
60	2.05	7.2437	1.8946	12.5928	0.0285	0.972	0.9138	0.8309
61	2.07	7.3405	1.7459	12.9351	0.0324	0.9681	0.8893	0.8288

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
34	0.058	-0.0509	0	0.0577	0	0
35	0.0699	-0.0736	0.0623	0.1256	0.0917	0.3028
36	0.0806	-0.0959	0.0735	0.223	0.1354	0.368
37	0.0903	-0.1394	0.0899	0.4893	0.2239	0.4732
38	0.1022	-0.1163	0.0952	0.3539	0.2499	0.4999
39	0.1146	-0.192	0.1113	1.0007	0.375	0.6124
40	0.127	-0.252	0.1314	1.7886	0.577	0.7596
41	0.1393	-0.2377	0.1447	1.65	0.7111	0.8433
42	0.1517	-0.182	0.1489	1.0029	0.7435	0.8623
43	0.1642	-0.1551	0.1495	0.7537	0.7445	0.8629
44	0.1768	-0.0764	0.1428	0.1891	0.694	0.8331
45	0.1894	-0.2196	0.1492	1.6172	0.771	0.8781
46	0.2021	-0.1611	0.1501	0.8997	0.7809	0.8837
47	0.2148	-0.173	0.1518	1.0719	0.8017	0.8954
48	0.2274	-0.4213	0.1697	6.5645	1.1859	1.089
49	0.2401	-0.3769	0.1827	5.4239	1.4507	1.2045
50	0.2527	-0.616	0.2082	14.9438	2.2444	1.4981
51	0.2653	-0.5371	0.2264	11.7136	2.7705	1.6645
52	0.2779	-0.5857	0.2454	14.3589	3.3804	1.8386
53	0.2904	-0.6147	0.2638	16.2902	4.0259	2.0065
54	0.3029	-0.6338	0.2814	17.833	4.6834	2.1641
55	0.3154	-0.6805	0.2996	21.1574	5.4322	2.3307
56	0.3278	-0.6791	0.3161	21.6831	6.1388	2.4777
57	0.3401	-0.698	0.332	23.5546	6.8644	2.62
58	0.3524	-0.6752	0.3457	22.6587	7.4962	2.7379
59	0.3646	-0.716	0.36	26.1828	8.2149	2.8662
60	0.3768	-0.717	0.3732	26.9746	8.9097	2.9849
61	0.3889	-0.718	0.3855	27.7783	9.5836	3.0957