| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.4724 | -0.0932 | 0.0787 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.1101 ) | (0.1425 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.4669 | -0.0575 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.2788 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.4419 | 0 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.254999841102132 |
| 22.5732468268588 |
| 8.5596147852741 |
| 31.5510083806896 |
| 17.7834394335301 |
| 5.21813736680485 |
| -11.2987244182141 |
| -4.38255223982964 |
| -3.24547348619006 |
| -3.59637919863388 |
| -9.07894978141803 |
| -0.240418731932607 |
| -3.79241620359034 |
| -1.29009140859819 |
| -1.24114931369547 |
| -10.9930520256625 |
| 0.0533448917191777 |
| -6.76872604779652 |
| -1.69512986831029 |
| -12.8732240859462 |
| -1.75363551253247 |
| -1.33476612315008 |
| 0.671372163460262 |
| -1.33278905946827 |
| -3.65139472031865 |
| -2.17856424173738 |
| -5.33294663057808 |
| -0.467425303785319 |
| -0.668340508115875 |
| 5.38586532584151 |
| 19.6963007334884 |
| 16.5983676600472 |
| -0.354630141180735 |
| 1.38695359583159 |
| 2.63317728837711 |
| 0.274066203587665 |
| -12.5865552508293 |
| 11.2711571593877 |
| -10.2989185160563 |
| -1.70966970674186 |
| 4.07208645067777 |
| -3.5385607901714 |
| 8.08888004582155 |
| -6.45388800250976 |
| -9.15584403400885 |
| -0.942309262784647 |
| -11.6777735377835 |
| -3.69598005363599 |
| 0.482149923961288 |
| -14.6227228969566 |
| 1.59394840539613 |
| -0.629037738450194 |
| -1.84237428178946 |
| 2.18169872445679 |
| -4.06309575283458 |
| 0.0507237791042883 |
| -0.348455776255946 |
| 0.728212556173162 |
| -3.43851206571190 |
| 10.5170926019946 |
| -6.18613664041561 |
| 12.7579321519268 |
| -4.32620511098639 |
| 0.441912325372527 |
| 0.423179474917333 |
| -2.01620175989382 |
| -2.03082275269890 |
| 2.55052017276307 |
| -2.17372669913826 |
| -1.57158383748575 |
| 0.0933780839712028 |
| 0.787962152262793 |
| 1.41479754768844 |
| 0.835013716313426 |
| -0.449295204669227 |
| -4.10137984997564 |
| 1.52580596598852 |
| -0.848990819362086 |
| -0.949477138008746 |
| 2.06097456418360 |
| -2.97510654911395 |
| 2.11343937071442 |
| 1.80659486457100 |
| -3.26306870137677 |
| 5.56518989002774 |
| 3.31912172018303 |
| -4.51496872411559 |
| 2.34344167877362 |
| 0.706594864571002 |
| 2.95052555121936 |
| 0.840587219131635 |
| -1.61931725883983 |
| 1.76483409103309 |
| 0.252774570294264 |
| -1.44546272927766 |
| 1.56534477190945 |
| -0.53015450071274 |
| 2.05750057701476 |
| -0.533807731992965 |
| -0.87176039236897 |
| -0.403476676396906 |
| 0.827522631185332 |
| 0.0205476053899361 |
| -5.31132087129157 |
| 1.24515027628610 |
| 1.36128163871888 |
| -1.68259494501393 |
| -7.22315511268755 |
| 23.8785995200561 |
| 73.9733470195563 |
| -17.6059726437038 |
| -11.5005404547868 |
| 0.447958059877863 |
| -1.77007884631439 |
| -6.03015987916899 |
| -10.2756036246731 |
| -13.7165520212557 |
| 6.67505798383115 |
| 3.26672526270409 |
| -2.37860489851249 |
| -2.61285560314889 |
| -6.48709836161976 |
| -2.08971124737377 |
| -7.23959290883658 |
| -5.73310689091602 |
| 2.73515246282636 |
| -2.95653062894957 |
| -8.3740391521298 |
| 8.2564657691214 |
| 4.02131932557023 |
| -14.7639324920197 |
| 2.87085008485235 |
| 10.8573950604115 |
| -4.59398083531022 |
| -6.05931533194951 |
| 10.7521253020815 |
| -5.76891351876901 |
| -0.216818598192447 |
| 6.79685476036809 |
| -7.28105483470029 |
| 3.26419020127651 |
| 0.832534039439565 |
| 3.05139472031863 |
| 1.65870656133524 |
| 2.57196937716634 |
| 7.1688268267626 |
| -5.18450177041126 |
| 8.71298010352564 |
| 1.17677986830756 |
| -1.40413417147067 |
| 5.88924122327245 |
| -8.08504219197363 |
| -4.44521577693325 |
| -2.90210489410561 |
| -11.1183310162291 |
| 9.35819872886356 |
| -4.3637309340877 |
| 5.92930969384327 |
| -9.75613971081265 |
| 3.13109137804486 |
| 5.15463804968846 |
| 1.39090916400977 |
| 6.18382798079216 |
| -6.0709075178151 |
| 1.50339488120437 |
| 0.43812921525938 |
| -8.74495204840122 |
| 3.59743314947747 |
| 0.0980066417727699 |
| 2.39023822279552 |
| -8.89094982078495 |
| 6.74466126841133 |
| -6.34346604100335 |
| 0.973569128028544 |
| -5.75177757077120 |
| -5.32663716754075 |
| 0.231167794781186 |
| 2.42833769736893 |
| -4.13766725884244 |
| -3.17871643439094 |
| 6.35138665263429 |
| -0.283689393455859 |
| -6.3865552508293 |
| 0.876353190209443 |
| 5.35936405640899 |
| -5.85038965311116 |
| 4.61016630065865 |
| -5.36189245774221 |
| -5.62382336467385 |
| -1.17578286878449 |
| -8.4359369883283 |
| 1.75697644999781 |
| -0.520115389658969 |
| 10.4050330812558 |
| -3.73803935238249 |
| 1.60810190415148 |
| 3.0571447780201 |
| 0.258706561335231 |
| 0.825634789561434 |
| -5.39110470266661 |
| 1.62738942230527 |
| -7.74917006347349 |
| 5.40159975086215 |
| 3.41106854049093 |
| 2.90905286844321 |
| -2.16426661801282 |
| -1.06580672832641 |
| 0.747915354693589 |
| 1.77280880557964 |
| 5.41863271230818 |
| 71.4677567405503 |
| 79.5712963916553 |
| -51.108057464799 |
| 6.77650422717727 |
| 3.44702182336465 |
| -11.5400928328006 |
| 6.4530405064121 |
| -17.7220519557424 |
| -4.85077567443415 |
| 2.53997924851291 |
| -1.30393799199487 |
| -0.144264812641495 |
| -2.92422788812797 |
| 3.84809190957691 |
| -6.8045711248389 |
| -10.3940273521839 |
| 0.700187470972423 |
| -4.57204784231180 |
| -14.8984489735973 |
| 9.11431407744664 |
| -5.61323512355438 |
| -0.357633785894848 |
| -7.4561234162673 |
| 3.14305076063675 |
| -5.99711246962494 |
| 3.6735420765707 |
| -6.50040721268226 |
| 3.81885261319462 |
| -6.9413475415804 |
| 5.31136421729474 |
| -2.17132279818179 |
| 2.06483409103305 |
| 18.8127034104953 |
| 29.1406851496928 |
| 4.79128362842471 |
| 24.058088923041 |
| 6.34202908053061 |
| -3.40380891315755 |
| -5.96429431028963 |
| -19.8363475310577 |
| 1.30633398444371 |
| -11.3383185754643 |
| -7.48172023828175 |
| 0.333384383941961 |
| 7.64589225578044 |
| -10.5004261964558 |
| -4.29990792953726 |
| -5.8435829553381 |
| 2.32976089334772 |
| -6.52864950954142 |
| -5.35799496334579 |
| -8.16326139162874 |
| 2.87977038523445 |
| -3.29225863248047 |
| 0.460102705856173 |
| -0.393407824657118 |
| 5.06358207148128 |
| -3.28138896069345 |
| 3.64290663566749 |
| -8.81152178840455 |
| 3.52184028171678 |
| 0.421186116690194 |
| -3.87927315049865 |
| 10.5801639925995 |
| -18.8566964269204 |
| 8.28186119238052 |
| 17.9993377672890 |
| 4.74625596328286 |
| -9.68682182776615 |
| -2.05786508451285 |
| -3.26517359548234 |
| -7.8071623375912 |
| 5.86428560178632 |
| -1.47536156914271 |
| -10.3203683612785 |
| 2.69099047756004 |
| -6.9765675534631 |
| 0.228587338941338 |
| 2.22189771467959 |
| -1.43853642794164 |
| -0.80416660138468 |
| -7.17996576471461 |
| 0.426159075755095 |
| 6.90464754157517 |
| -8.83298459812511 |
| -2.00601378623350 |
| -0.0580436878053092 |
| -0.312754824182832 |
| -2.35384734573461 |
| -6.29686013882434 |
| 5.64652743703368 |
| -0.505133219402865 |
| -9.03465253886247 |
| 15.8195642111842 |
| -2.46303025218748 |
| -8.26140677991458 |
| 7.50965024132603 |
| -7.04067928959427 |
| 1.66539080714085 |
| -4.80247967687393 |
| 3.24182848177094 |
| -5.14865669336893 |
| 18.2118775873992 |
| -15.2701547814083 |
| 5.32753828491178 |
| 6.64853219299221 |
| -10.5500284756603 |
| 3.14627177618598 |
| 1.17188822279275 |
| -2.94147537200422 |
| 0.948629641911054 |
| -9.4388705539347 |
| -0.222603775036134 |
| 11.2072523596447 |
| -3.04677976783421 |
| -3.84173103285195 |
| 9.37860489851244 |
| -6.15547145882641 |
| -6.14242633629601 |
| -4.64284161666268 |
| 16.1391668715575 |
| -6.4421241585747 |
| 0.336007385789344 |
| -3.21323845360138 |
| -4.63552708641794 |
| 2.49930200732786 |
| 27.0368771957075 |
| -23.6579756571066 |
| 13.5590178918654 |
| 19.2516070351631 |
| -1.48872532311651 |
| 5.87281892167323 |
| -11.7503084987377 |
| 19.1288667211998 |
| -10.8816819482691 |
| 2.48517207080658 |
| -15.6012520195517 |
| 1.39031953634566 |
| 1.52253353675172 |
| -5.99343218688688 |
| 15.3907922496751 |
| -7.16318244484108 |
| 6.85047080748473 |
| -21.8131025554932 |
| 8.84561712951688 |
| 3.28850052541611 |
| -4.28399646799113 |
| -2.184618684746 |
| 3.50191220385364 |
