Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[50])
38	17.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	21.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	17.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	18.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	16.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	16.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	18.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	19.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	19.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	17.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	18.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	18.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	20.4	20.4363	19.5877	21.3295	0.4682	1	0.0098	1
52	18.1	19.8359	19.0573	20.6529	0	0.088	1	1
53	19.6	17.0703	16.2992	17.8855	0	0.0067	0	0.0067
54	19.9	20.9927	19.8705	22.1917	0.037	0.9886	0.9994	1
55	19.2	18.4078	17.4577	19.4207	0.0626	0.0019	0.9999	0.7243
56	17.8	16.4227	15.4406	17.4807	0.0054	0	0.1883	9e-04
57	19.2	20.8745	19.588	22.2638	0.0091	1	0.9993	1
58	22	21.0312	19.7196	22.4489	0.0902	0.9943	0.9917	1
59	21.1	19.6298	18.27	21.1128	0.026	9e-04	0.6193	0.9784
60	19.5	21.5183	20.0299	23.1415	0.0074	0.6933	1	1
61	22.2	18.8092	17.4842	20.2566	0	0.1748	0.6115	0.8316
62	20.9	20.5719	19.0641	22.225	0.3486	0.0268	0.9983	0.9983
63	22.2	23.512	21.7541	25.4431	0.0915	0.996	0.9992	1
64	23.5	20.7604	19.1512	22.5347	0.0012	0.0559	0.9984	0.9984
65	21.5	20.7085	19.1449	22.4278	0.1835	7e-04	0.8968	0.9985
66	24.3	23.2936	21.4985	25.2716	0.1593	0.9622	0.9996	1
67	22.8	18.7563	17.2988	20.3637	0	0	0.2942	0.7882
68	20.3	20.1382	18.5759	21.8608	0.427	0.0012	0.9961	0.9898
69	23.7	22.2928	20.4892	24.2902	0.0837	0.9747	0.9988	1
70	23.3	21.6527	19.9018	23.5917	0.0479	0.0193	0.3628	0.9998
71	19.6	24.1304	22.1496	26.3277	0	0.7706	0.9966	1
72	18	23.7166	21.68	25.9873	0	0.9998	0.9999	1
73	17.3	23.2798	21.3192	25.4608	0	1	0.8341	1
74	16.8	22.6852	20.7854	24.7973	0	1	0.9512	1
75	18.2	27.0237	24.6773	29.6429	0	1	0.9998	1
76	16.5	22.5876	20.7089	24.6747	0	1	0.1958	1
77	16	23.4567	21.4827	25.6525	0	1	0.9597	1
78	18.4	24.6773	22.5977	26.9907	0	1	0.6254	1

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
51	0.0223	-0.0018	0	0.0013	0	0
52	0.021	-0.0875	0.0446	3.0132	1.5073	1.2277
53	0.0244	0.1482	0.0792	6.3995	3.138	1.7714
54	0.0291	-0.052	0.0724	1.1939	2.652	1.6285
55	0.0281	0.043	0.0665	0.6275	2.2471	1.499
56	0.0329	0.0839	0.0694	1.8971	2.1888	1.4794
57	0.034	-0.0802	0.071	2.804	2.2766	1.5089
58	0.0344	0.0461	0.0678	0.9385	2.1094	1.4524
59	0.0385	0.0749	0.0686	2.1616	2.1152	1.4544
60	0.0385	-0.0938	0.0711	4.0737	2.311	1.5202
61	0.0393	0.1803	0.0811	11.4976	3.1462	1.7737
62	0.041	0.016	0.0756	0.1077	2.893	1.7009
63	0.0419	-0.0558	0.0741	1.7213	2.8028	1.6742
64	0.0436	0.132	0.0782	7.5052	3.1387	1.7716
65	0.0424	0.0382	0.0756	0.6265	2.9712	1.7237
66	0.0433	0.0432	0.0736	1.0128	2.8488	1.6878
67	0.0437	0.2156	0.0819	16.3517	3.6431	1.9087
68	0.0436	0.008	0.0778	0.0262	3.4422	1.8553
69	0.0457	0.0631	0.077	1.9802	3.3652	1.8345
70	0.0457	0.0761	0.077	2.7136	3.3327	1.8256
71	0.0465	-0.1877	0.0823	20.5247	4.1513	2.0375
72	0.0488	-0.241	0.0895	32.68	5.4481	2.3341
73	0.0478	-0.2569	0.0968	35.7578	6.7659	2.6011
74	0.0475	-0.2594	0.1035	34.6359	7.9272	2.8155
75	0.0495	-0.3265	0.1125	77.8575	10.7244	3.2748
76	0.0471	-0.2695	0.1185	37.0594	11.7373	3.426
77	0.0478	-0.3179	0.1259	55.6029	13.3619	3.6554
78	0.0478	-0.2544	0.1305	39.4041	14.292	3.7805