Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.423371990682941 |
beta | 0.0195569935214878 |
gamma | 0.730774983925955 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 55 | 58.9023392751817 | -3.90233927518170 |
14 | 60 | 62.8634077747937 | -2.86340777479365 |
15 | 59 | 60.546313553452 | -1.54631355345199 |
16 | 58 | 58.475457358636 | -0.47545735863595 |
17 | 53 | 52.6409854174408 | 0.359014582559205 |
18 | 57 | 56.1241628758627 | 0.875837124137291 |
19 | 57 | 61.2947882409337 | -4.29478824093374 |
20 | 53 | 55.6947116162030 | -2.69471161620295 |
21 | 54 | 46.554605496123 | 7.44539450387703 |
22 | 53 | 51.1657213287351 | 1.83427867126492 |
23 | 57 | 47.4515283774653 | 9.54847162253474 |
24 | 57 | 60.6274256909451 | -3.62742569094512 |
25 | 55 | 51.2492026821145 | 3.7507973178855 |
26 | 49 | 58.6305811592515 | -9.63058115925155 |
27 | 50 | 54.0261322304602 | -4.0261322304602 |
28 | 49 | 51.4089408524789 | -2.40894085247891 |
29 | 54 | 45.7257468904879 | 8.27425310951212 |
30 | 58 | 52.5544652279684 | 5.44553477203164 |
31 | 58 | 57.4309098105022 | 0.569090189497842 |
32 | 52 | 54.6943984799615 | -2.69439847996153 |
33 | 56 | 49.7645607960945 | 6.23543920390546 |
34 | 52 | 51.6194578680072 | 0.380542131992812 |
35 | 59 | 50.3566340598945 | 8.64336594010547 |
36 | 53 | 57.555527799128 | -4.55552779912804 |
37 | 52 | 51.0814827200731 | 0.91851727992691 |
38 | 53 | 51.3707331095737 | 1.62926689042625 |
39 | 51 | 54.0787039994874 | -3.07870399948737 |
40 | 50 | 52.7136347268283 | -2.71363472682827 |
41 | 56 | 51.3380282213526 | 4.66197177864736 |
42 | 52 | 55.5220162897591 | -3.5220162897591 |
43 | 46 | 54.5521144379234 | -8.55211443792344 |
44 | 48 | 47.0063366698534 | 0.993663330146553 |
45 | 46 | 47.249880566214 | -1.24988056621404 |
46 | 48 | 43.8421149534354 | 4.15788504656458 |
47 | 48 | 47.1188014458565 | 0.88119855414353 |
48 | 49 | 45.6174371822074 | 3.38256281779258 |
49 | 53 | 45.0174338622736 | 7.98256613772642 |
50 | 48 | 48.5925208556935 | -0.5925208556935 |
51 | 51 | 48.3359086650429 | 2.66409133495714 |
52 | 48 | 49.5868036537874 | -1.58680365378743 |
53 | 50 | 51.7158859689251 | -1.71588596892507 |
54 | 55 | 49.8087595693327 | 5.19124043066726 |
55 | 52 | 50.2720246748589 | 1.72797532514111 |
56 | 53 | 51.3386324166819 | 1.66136758331808 |
57 | 52 | 51.0562815592371 | 0.943718440762858 |
58 | 55 | 50.9875632933225 | 4.01243670667746 |
59 | 53 | 53.1057351936292 | -0.105735193629229 |
60 | 53 | 52.3621708859726 | 0.637829114027426 |
61 | 56 | 52.4967445865758 | 3.50325541342418 |
62 | 54 | 50.5598916583423 | 3.44010834165772 |
63 | 52 | 53.6694461616626 | -1.66944616166263 |
64 | 55 | 51.3529095740268 | 3.64709042597318 |
65 | 54 | 56.1215125883556 | -2.12151258835559 |
66 | 59 | 57.2550060558415 | 1.74499394415845 |
67 | 56 | 54.740933005483 | 1.25906699451698 |
68 | 56 | 55.764588620256 | 0.235411379743958 |
69 | 51 | 54.6501131039374 | -3.65011310393743 |
70 | 53 | 53.9979510761349 | -0.997951076134868 |
71 | 52 | 52.3255943171342 | -0.325594317134190 |
72 | 51 | 51.8514706285443 | -0.851470628544305 |
73 | 46 | 52.5242473405578 | -6.52424734055778 |
74 | 49 | 46.5600251488706 | 2.43997485112942 |
75 | 46 | 47.0591717230597 | -1.05917172305969 |
76 | 55 | 47.0552876934929 | 7.9447123065071 |
77 | 57 | 51.1087416372215 | 5.89125836277847 |
78 | 53 | 57.2586583767913 | -4.25865837679129 |
79 | 52 | 52.1779199812679 | -0.177919981267898 |
80 | 53 | 52.1355367781645 | 0.8644632218355 |
81 | 50 | 49.7694773413206 | 0.230522658679448 |
82 | 54 | 51.8315330125222 | 2.16846698747776 |
83 | 53 | 51.8456996817621 | 1.15430031823792 |
84 | 50 | 51.8421779770833 | -1.84217797708325 |
85 | 51 | 49.6141042896784 | 1.38589571032156 |
86 | 52 | 50.9394342440312 | 1.06056575596885 |
87 | 47 | 49.3879241678224 | -2.38792416782242 |
88 | 51 | 52.7086080942778 | -1.70860809427776 |
89 | 49 | 51.7175238785488 | -2.71752387854877 |
90 | 53 | 49.8816189863834 | 3.11838101361658 |
91 | 52 | 49.7127336984029 | 2.28726630159712 |
92 | 45 | 51.1621189657747 | -6.16211896577473 |
93 | 53 | 45.752511049142 | 7.24748895085803 |
94 | 51 | 51.5505192219968 | -0.550519221996836 |
95 | 48 | 50.0404845254472 | -2.04048452544724 |
96 | 48 | 47.5014491799112 | 0.498550820088795 |
97 | 48 | 47.6145105029583 | 0.385489497041654 |
98 | 48 | 48.3219208580364 | -0.321920858036364 |
99 | 40 | 44.9262089909116 | -4.92620899091164 |
100 | 43 | 46.9442843611873 | -3.94428436118725 |
101 | 40 | 44.5513370720774 | -4.55133707207737 |
102 | 39 | 44.0083697566031 | -5.00836975660307 |
103 | 39 | 40.2145498272243 | -1.21454982722427 |
104 | 36 | 37.0151467322396 | -1.01514673223964 |
105 | 41 | 38.5153669693893 | 2.48463303061067 |
106 | 39 | 38.9201937746157 | 0.0798062253843028 |
107 | 40 | 37.2793976429623 | 2.7206023570377 |
108 | 39 | 37.7825650532049 | 1.21743494679509 |
109 | 46 | 38.0220027391725 | 7.97799726082753 |
110 | 40 | 41.5297337835317 | -1.52973378353173 |
111 | 37 | 36.2868820656346 | 0.713117934365442 |
112 | 37 | 40.5493501836833 | -3.54935018368331 |
113 | 44 | 38.0524330466864 | 5.94756695331359 |
114 | 41 | 41.7288759229973 | -0.728875922997325 |
115 | 40 | 41.4643457946619 | -1.46434579466186 |
116 | 36 | 38.2481997700295 | -2.24819977002948 |
117 | 38 | 40.8968713160479 | -2.89687131604788 |
118 | 43 | 38.0964923106784 | 4.90350768932164 |
119 | 42 | 39.6663427236364 | 2.33365727636360 |
120 | 45 | 39.4302618704117 | 5.56973812958829 |
121 | 46 | 44.4262479507252 | 1.57375204927482 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
122 | 41.2495753911415 | 35.0356598989813 | 47.4634908833018 |
123 | 37.5874894903192 | 30.7270154223533 | 44.4479635582851 |
124 | 39.8137142224284 | 32.0687297611420 | 47.5586986837148 |
125 | 42.9685072469998 | 34.2176522859268 | 51.7193622080729 |
126 | 41.3718965473154 | 32.1550643280524 | 50.5887287665783 |
127 | 41.1597321952546 | 31.3233004842789 | 50.9961639062304 |
128 | 38.2167786122307 | 28.2214641605535 | 48.212093063908 |
129 | 41.7879389438208 | 30.4944730619125 | 53.0814048257292 |
130 | 43.6901237194493 | 31.3802880272407 | 55.9999594116578 |
131 | 42.1128691228340 | 29.5472617001239 | 54.678476545544 |
132 | 42.1848186594751 | 28.9909225032004 | 55.3787148157497 |
133 | 43.0901751614808 | 6.84186215887056 | 79.3384881640911 |