Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	100.09	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	100.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	100.78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	99.81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	98.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	98.49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	97.48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	97.91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	96.94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	98.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	96.82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	95.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	95.27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	97.32	95.4435	93.2536	97.6334	0.0465	0.5617	0	0.5617
50	96.68	95.387	92.3023	98.4716	0.2057	0.1097	3e-04	0.5296
51	97.87	95.6493	91.8765	99.4221	0.1243	0.2962	0.0153	0.5781
52	97.42	95.4384	91.0849	99.792	0.1862	0.1368	0.0876	0.5302
53	97.94	95.3785	90.5131	100.244	0.1511	0.2054	0.105	0.5174
54	99.52	95.3613	90.0329	100.6897	0.063	0.1714	0.2179	0.5134
55	100.99	95.4382	89.684	101.1924	0.0293	0.0822	0.1999	0.5228
56	99.92	94.8618	88.7111	101.0124	0.0535	0.0254	0.2539	0.4482
57	101.97	95.39	88.867	101.913	0.024	0.0867	0.1727	0.5144
58	101.58	95.715	88.8398	102.5903	0.0473	0.0373	0.3764	0.5505
59	99.54	95.0863	87.876	102.2966	0.113	0.0388	0.4273	0.4801
60	100.83	95.0749	87.5445	102.6053	0.0671	0.1226	0.4797	0.4797

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0117	0.0197	0.0016	3.5213	0.2934	0.5417
50	0.0165	0.0136	0.0011	1.6719	0.1393	0.3733
51	0.0201	0.0232	0.0019	4.9315	0.411	0.6411
52	0.0233	0.0208	0.0017	3.9266	0.3272	0.572
53	0.026	0.0269	0.0022	6.5612	0.5468	0.7394
54	0.0285	0.0436	0.0036	17.2947	1.4412	1.2005
55	0.0308	0.0582	0.0048	30.8225	2.5685	1.6027
56	0.0331	0.0533	0.0044	25.5857	2.1321	1.4602
57	0.0349	0.069	0.0057	43.2961	3.608	1.8995
58	0.0366	0.0613	0.0051	34.3978	2.8665	1.6931
59	0.0387	0.0468	0.0039	19.8352	1.6529	1.2857
60	0.0404	0.0605	0.005	33.1213	2.7601	1.6614