| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.136400379311296 |
| beta | 0.764143764094036 |
| gamma | 0.532919558253932 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 4163 | 3804.99851942050 | 358.001480579503 |
| 14 | 4962 | 4619.58026217785 | 342.419737822145 |
| 15 | 5208 | 4981.75591859466 | 226.244081405342 |
| 16 | 4755 | 4696.32685219716 | 58.6731478028414 |
| 17 | 4491 | 4606.84339277074 | -115.843392770738 |
| 18 | 5732 | 6053.94153285779 | -321.941532857792 |
| 19 | 5731 | 5164.57701725345 | 566.422982746551 |
| 20 | 5040 | 5590.1229855836 | -550.122985583603 |
| 21 | 6102 | 6501.5443895458 | -399.544389545799 |
| 22 | 4904 | 6076.11507828765 | -1172.11507828765 |
| 23 | 5369 | 6849.45840771214 | -1480.45840771214 |
| 24 | 5578 | 6194.96725752462 | -616.96725752462 |
| 25 | 4619 | 4437.27060010126 | 181.729399898736 |
| 26 | 4731 | 4995.53102873729 | -264.531028737289 |
| 27 | 5011 | 4855.59017182273 | 155.409828177272 |
| 28 | 5299 | 4172.7003702016 | 1126.29962979840 |
| 29 | 4146 | 3966.68293802328 | 179.317061976718 |
| 30 | 4625 | 4988.03121163714 | -363.031211637135 |
| 31 | 4736 | 4378.29640626406 | 357.703593735944 |
| 32 | 4219 | 4106.43064278002 | 112.569357219979 |
| 33 | 5116 | 4799.29332900233 | 316.70667099767 |
| 34 | 4205 | 4197.89174511871 | 7.10825488129285 |
| 35 | 4121 | 4818.03501444208 | -697.035014442075 |
| 36 | 5103 | 4731.8580955895 | 371.141904410494 |
| 37 | 4300 | 3831.01667102751 | 468.983328972488 |
| 38 | 4578 | 4353.20337485126 | 224.796625148739 |
| 39 | 3809 | 4714.65886382585 | -905.658863825853 |
| 40 | 5526 | 4478.61104419984 | 1047.38895580016 |
| 41 | 4247 | 3974.55105242518 | 272.448947574816 |
| 42 | 3830 | 4894.23934140712 | -1064.23934140712 |
| 43 | 4394 | 4591.87346856672 | -197.873468566718 |
| 44 | 4826 | 4145.53482018947 | 680.465179810531 |
| 45 | 4409 | 5105.9198748165 | -696.919874816502 |
| 46 | 4569 | 4201.86143670517 | 367.13856329483 |
| 47 | 4106 | 4564.54500082431 | -458.545000824312 |
| 48 | 4794 | 5059.56625581318 | -265.566255813183 |
| 49 | 3914 | 4082.84941219792 | -168.849412197923 |
| 50 | 3793 | 4306.68283092809 | -513.682830928088 |
| 51 | 4405 | 3886.98621259734 | 518.013787402663 |
| 52 | 4022 | 4659.15224601824 | -637.152246018236 |
| 53 | 4100 | 3507.96398467972 | 592.036015320284 |
| 54 | 4788 | 3676.24787308608 | 1111.75212691392 |
| 55 | 3163 | 4119.94164016574 | -956.94164016574 |
| 56 | 3585 | 3963.46161866683 | -378.461618666835 |
| 57 | 3903 | 3990.49342470667 | -87.493424706674 |
| 58 | 4178 | 3642.44519888634 | 535.554801113656 |
| 59 | 3863 | 3615.82003964365 | 247.179960356350 |
| 60 | 4187 | 4226.08359918485 | -39.0835991848535 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 3487.72670805667 | 2799.90973148786 | 4175.54368462548 |
| 62 | 3618.45899558128 | 2872.71547901424 | 4364.20251214832 |
| 63 | 3839.05702656775 | 2971.64043732906 | 4706.47361580644 |
| 64 | 4052.96786056963 | 2993.2048673035 | 5112.73085383576 |
| 65 | 3688.73142366956 | 2495.36892381734 | 4882.09392352178 |
| 66 | 4037.82782078263 | 2516.70063302386 | 5558.9550085414 |
| 67 | 3354.14820932174 | 1811.20209724205 | 4897.09432140144 |
| 68 | 3608.04107720640 | 1697.0913864528 | 5518.99076796001 |
| 69 | 3884.34865237854 | 1524.19376531099 | 6244.50353944608 |
| 70 | 3913.38138564548 | 1192.88062443812 | 6633.88214685284 |
| 71 | 3705.40062296169 | 777.086115053747 | 6633.71513086963 |
| 72 | 4139.26143821402 | 542.566114842396 | 7735.95676158564 |
