| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.719322263189433 |
| beta | 0.175883227652681 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 235243 | 226737.096173609 | 8505.90382639144 |
| 14 | 230354 | 229123.663657679 | 1230.33634232086 |
| 15 | 227184 | 228466.606944256 | -1282.60694425550 |
| 16 | 221678 | 223800.799736545 | -2122.79973654507 |
| 17 | 217142 | 219569.963404597 | -2427.96340459693 |
| 18 | 219452 | 221777.488382775 | -2325.48838277528 |
| 19 | 256446 | 253078.86492726 | 3367.13507274029 |
| 20 | 265845 | 275261.348592982 | -9416.34859298158 |
| 21 | 248624 | 249812.961546658 | -1188.96154665813 |
| 22 | 241114 | 248787.113109431 | -7673.11310943082 |
| 23 | 229245 | 230323.758223731 | -1078.75822373136 |
| 24 | 231805 | 230951.619090012 | 853.3809099879 |
| 25 | 219277 | 230021.713136055 | -10744.7131360545 |
| 26 | 219313 | 213007.912949720 | 6305.08705027957 |
| 27 | 212610 | 212302.915434283 | 307.084565716534 |
| 28 | 214771 | 205964.418159997 | 8806.58184000323 |
| 29 | 211142 | 208148.332026315 | 2993.66797368464 |
| 30 | 211457 | 213328.520399341 | -1871.52039934113 |
| 31 | 240048 | 244474.550451757 | -4426.55045175678 |
| 32 | 240636 | 254512.147891949 | -13876.147891949 |
| 33 | 230580 | 227069.630096231 | 3510.36990376926 |
| 34 | 208795 | 225903.193603848 | -17108.1936038479 |
| 35 | 197922 | 200792.922646433 | -2870.92264643265 |
| 36 | 194596 | 197141.523346073 | -2545.52334607317 |
| 37 | 194581 | 187540.072309868 | 7040.9276901315 |
| 38 | 185686 | 187093.073748093 | -1407.07374809266 |
| 39 | 178106 | 177822.535574330 | 283.464425669546 |
| 40 | 172608 | 172111.618182285 | 496.381817715155 |
| 41 | 167302 | 164666.660612638 | 2635.33938736227 |
| 42 | 168053 | 164733.29100947 | 3319.70899053002 |
| 43 | 202300 | 189312.370753273 | 12987.6292467267 |
| 44 | 202388 | 206422.384439344 | -4034.38443934402 |
| 45 | 182516 | 192976.209422581 | -10460.2094225812 |
| 46 | 173476 | 176004.181549568 | -2528.18154956779 |
| 47 | 166444 | 166722.951638836 | -278.951638836093 |
| 48 | 171297 | 165447.794630753 | 5849.20536924707 |
| 49 | 169701 | 166504.988684226 | 3196.01131577438 |
| 50 | 164182 | 162870.492996047 | 1311.50700395295 |
| 51 | 161914 | 158194.423186792 | 3719.57681320762 |
| 52 | 159612 | 157313.046426763 | 2298.95357323682 |
| 53 | 151001 | 154302.302218677 | -3301.30221867724 |
| 54 | 158114 | 151651.041667999 | 6462.9583320012 |
| 55 | 186530 | 181293.236881336 | 5236.76311866372 |
| 56 | 187069 | 188881.128254835 | -1812.12825483538 |
| 57 | 174330 | 177306.013959189 | -2976.01395918918 |
| 58 | 169362 | 170383.00391962 | -1021.00391961989 |
| 59 | 166827 | 165305.241737241 | 1521.75826275870 |
| 60 | 178037 | 169696.530607771 | 8340.46939222876 |
| 61 | 186412 | 174725.036040875 | 11686.9639591248 |
| 62 | 189226 | 180249.057187600 | 8976.9428124004 |
| 63 | 191563 | 186117.340911741 | 5445.65908825921 |
| 64 | 188906 | 190545.546284782 | -1639.54628478200 |
| 65 | 186005 | 186419.699256824 | -414.699256823573 |
| 66 | 195309 | 194188.497080277 | 1120.50291972345 |
| 67 | 223532 | 230249.192150284 | -6717.1921502841 |
| 68 | 226899 | 230891.317106715 | -3992.31710671465 |
| 69 | 214126 | 217945.224671812 | -3819.22467181191 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 70 | 212749.177448599 | 201158.928045624 | 224339.426851573 |
| 71 | 211087.295561823 | 196017.170010025 | 226157.421113621 |
| 72 | 220331.805448108 | 201147.479503513 | 239516.131392704 |
| 73 | 221516.021217242 | 198492.334928469 | 244539.707506015 |
| 74 | 216743.438960666 | 190321.804979516 | 243165.072941816 |
| 75 | 213364.77811028 | 183397.841609235 | 243331.714611325 |
| 76 | 209566.740699672 | 176100.354199004 | 243033.12720034 |
| 77 | 204836.148573866 | 168029.552205537 | 241642.744942196 |
| 78 | 212386.963886877 | 170027.002367126 | 254746.925406628 |
| 79 | 246091.041662252 | 192384.317915784 | 299797.765408720 |
| 80 | 251602.164189145 | 191711.285210845 | 311493.043167446 |
| 81 | 239704.508944503 | 178808.146533843 | 300600.871355164 |
