| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.641464199430926 |
| beta | 0.149080426851784 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 337698 | 338129.808201150 | -431.808201150445 |
| 14 | 335932 | 336292.340320842 | -360.340320842166 |
| 15 | 323931 | 324279.172300144 | -348.172300143982 |
| 16 | 313927 | 314044.535194918 | -117.535194918106 |
| 17 | 314485 | 314074.404418508 | 410.595581492351 |
| 18 | 313218 | 312734.832013465 | 483.167986534652 |
| 19 | 309664 | 311475.27546251 | -1811.27546250977 |
| 20 | 302963 | 306210.600288761 | -3247.60028876114 |
| 21 | 298989 | 296942.254665062 | 2046.74533493759 |
| 22 | 298423 | 295531.938077474 | 2891.06192252599 |
| 23 | 310631 | 301168.019999867 | 9462.98000013281 |
| 24 | 329765 | 337962.286114488 | -8197.2861144878 |
| 25 | 335083 | 336931.639738523 | -1848.63973852270 |
| 26 | 327616 | 334267.265346076 | -6651.26534607634 |
| 27 | 309119 | 317893.093062713 | -8774.09306271316 |
| 28 | 295916 | 301385.247821761 | -5469.24782176124 |
| 29 | 291413 | 296328.534686983 | -4915.53468698269 |
| 30 | 291542 | 289376.459657051 | 2165.54034294933 |
| 31 | 284678 | 286392.666639411 | -1714.66663941147 |
| 32 | 276475 | 278905.002845494 | -2430.00284549355 |
| 33 | 272566 | 270458.093180198 | 2107.90681980172 |
| 34 | 264981 | 267591.202643675 | -2610.20264367491 |
| 35 | 263290 | 268756.376123083 | -5466.37612308329 |
| 36 | 296806 | 281864.786578827 | 14941.2134211731 |
| 37 | 303598 | 295071.472084992 | 8526.52791500837 |
| 38 | 286994 | 296502.935654430 | -9508.93565442954 |
| 39 | 276427 | 277510.509852600 | -1083.50985259959 |
| 40 | 266424 | 267345.581287227 | -921.581287226756 |
| 41 | 267153 | 265141.351888260 | 2011.64811174042 |
| 42 | 268381 | 265544.267060637 | 2836.73293936258 |
| 43 | 262522 | 262427.393696742 | 94.6063032578095 |
| 44 | 255542 | 256872.579053333 | -1330.57905333309 |
| 45 | 253158 | 251750.116090872 | 1407.88390912814 |
| 46 | 243803 | 247717.896494066 | -3914.89649406596 |
| 47 | 250741 | 247270.440222814 | 3470.55977718590 |
| 48 | 280445 | 273433.001007394 | 7011.9989926056 |
| 49 | 285257 | 279818.680188764 | 5438.31981123617 |
| 50 | 270976 | 273870.314123761 | -2894.31412376126 |
| 51 | 261076 | 263653.918265663 | -2577.91826566315 |
| 52 | 255603 | 253905.966714528 | 1697.03328547216 |
| 53 | 260376 | 255554.211328954 | 4821.78867104626 |
| 54 | 263903 | 259474.819994835 | 4428.18000516525 |
| 55 | 264291 | 258088.372041888 | 6202.62795811243 |
| 56 | 263276 | 258092.895311786 | 5183.10468821405 |
| 57 | 262572 | 260848.558023756 | 1723.44197624366 |
| 58 | 256167 | 257641.672500395 | -1474.67250039469 |
| 59 | 264221 | 264795.580508491 | -574.580508490501 |
| 60 | 293860 | 294010.622286622 | -150.622286622121 |
| 61 | 300713 | 297605.562911227 | 3107.43708877300 |
| 62 | 287224 | 288536.835335810 | -1312.83533580956 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 63 | 281045.210151128 | 271896.405397039 | 290194.014905216 |
| 64 | 276320.704821048 | 265036.744675594 | 287604.664966502 |
| 65 | 280308.959914284 | 266633.598762833 | 293984.321065734 |
| 66 | 282727.645294841 | 266577.147055184 | 298878.143534497 |
| 67 | 280066.981204555 | 261571.462347718 | 298562.500061392 |
| 68 | 276019.089614769 | 255213.416693857 | 296824.762535681 |
| 69 | 274176.106518518 | 250877.545756216 | 297474.66728082 |
| 70 | 268364.756162014 | 242848.314389298 | 293881.197934729 |
| 71 | 277223.911670223 | 248121.780579891 | 306326.042760556 |
| 72 | 308524.808309352 | 273209.734091762 | 343839.882526941 |
| 73 | 313737.147427361 | 274632.855853515 | 352841.439001208 |
| 74 | 300362.909087304 | 260743.468607088 | 339982.34956752 |
