| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 111.4 | 111.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 87.4 | 99.8959539316997 | -0.224183712393462 | -12.4959539316997 | -3.77471157315384 |
| 3 | 96.8 | 94.339309268493 | -0.569131348621291 | 2.46069073150694 | -1.33271605733773 |
| 4 | 114.1 | 101.723564933706 | -0.0988441724438671 | 12.3764350662943 | 2.46831244139248 |
| 5 | 110.3 | 106.859804053141 | 0.116819811641048 | 3.44019594685947 | 1.83558024291616 |
| 6 | 103.9 | 107.063970905857 | 0.119137784906014 | -3.16397090585739 | 0.0316988220915472 |
| 7 | 101.6 | 104.948128028468 | 0.0773151079021414 | -3.348128028468 | -0.816544568468068 |
| 8 | 94.6 | 100.232015862647 | 0.0016220913592343 | -5.63201586264684 | -1.75189481224714 |
| 9 | 95.9 | 97.1668014595735 | -0.0452188529674338 | -1.26680145957346 | -1.11964241708753 |
| 10 | 104.7 | 99.2958365156745 | -0.0114825539596751 | 5.4041634843255 | 0.792862361470975 |
| 11 | 102.8 | 101.296936222331 | 0.0202459237017574 | 1.50306377766911 | 0.733381500474781 |
| 12 | 98.1 | 100.591111703502 | 0.0087643243230906 | -2.49111170350176 | -0.264507486948939 |
| 13 | 113.9 | 102.814221941408 | -0.0318593510066001 | 11.0857780585917 | 0.849107270893794 |
| 14 | 80.9 | 99.7935477949431 | -0.0117124586909016 | -18.8935477949431 | -1.13177845328493 |
| 15 | 95.7 | 98.987425219725 | -0.024086084943073 | -3.28742521972501 | -0.273720806017243 |
| 16 | 113.2 | 100.821593902115 | 0.0257799528720589 | 12.3784060978848 | 0.623623446985644 |
| 17 | 105.9 | 101.609855341732 | 0.0470167145532073 | 4.29014465826797 | 0.263729185843117 |
| 18 | 108.8 | 104.728303064001 | 0.119765190151101 | 4.0716969359988 | 1.09584152464600 |
| 19 | 102.3 | 104.485408696034 | 0.112983400460035 | -2.18540869603425 | -0.131478232683559 |
| 20 | 99 | 104.042183923285 | 0.104658715053347 | -5.04218392328478 | -0.20288370454963 |
| 21 | 100.7 | 103.846293945630 | 0.100876708529739 | -3.14629394563046 | -0.109821794033034 |
| 22 | 115.5 | 106.651232474146 | 0.129654255774177 | 8.84876752585427 | 0.987908168694762 |
| 23 | 100.7 | 104.489210383621 | 0.111252194241004 | -3.78921038362127 | -0.83656361546845 |
| 24 | 109.9 | 107.228668010539 | 0.122407658233233 | 2.67133198946094 | 0.960554293568703 |
| 25 | 114.6 | 105.884017559837 | 0.121336014739735 | 8.71598244016299 | -0.539045021946316 |
| 26 | 85.4 | 105.122614461517 | 0.118582981810548 | -19.7226144615167 | -0.321690397564941 |
| 27 | 100.5 | 105.143153537253 | 0.117625156977526 | -4.64315353725302 | -0.0348528561178327 |
| 28 | 114.8 | 104.620365045659 | 0.107496289118277 | 10.1796349543411 | -0.223986585483039 |
| 29 | 116.5 | 108.143511635826 | 0.171337116420478 | 8.35648836417352 | 1.19974494886135 |
| 30 | 112.9 | 109.104914131069 | 0.185930298729379 | 3.79508586893128 | 0.281552001571018 |
| 31 | 102 | 107.402868396962 | 0.154943985213279 | -5.40286839696195 | -0.68149192715483 |
| 32 | 106 | 108.604171570326 | 0.169321676514080 | -2.60417157032571 | 0.380494672759458 |
| 33 | 105.3 | 109.364808944887 | 0.175880164664117 | -4.06480894488655 | 0.215661624190514 |
| 34 | 118.8 | 109.507922805753 | 0.175598725468891 | 9.29207719424673 | -0.0119566864945872 |
| 35 | 106.1 | 110.158244289759 | 0.178568838772146 | -4.05824428975929 | 0.173204522851695 |
| 36 | 109.3 | 108.588350629317 | 0.170817746450212 | 0.711649370683478 | -0.637986259099148 |
| 37 | 117.2 | 108.049112317866 | 0.168039804163992 | 9.15088768213435 | -0.258756733401266 |
| 38 | 92.5 | 109.660093389787 | 0.175858398132718 | -17.1600933897867 | 0.522480712336001 |
| 39 | 104.2 | 110.049179881987 | 0.177665422541725 | -5.84917988198659 | 0.0763843959498218 |
| 40 | 112.5 | 108.043011623097 | 0.152169523350219 | 4.45698837690309 | -0.776126929599112 |
| 41 | 122.4 | 109.985855610696 | 0.176858386032477 | 12.4141443893039 | 0.636497263966404 |
| 42 | 113.3 | 110.023077976287 | 0.174855751904514 | 3.27692202371337 | -0.0499614453383717 |
| 43 | 100 | 108.645603649194 | 0.153848165145766 | -8.64560364919415 | -0.559863637242873 |
| 44 | 110.7 | 110.305101237087 | 0.171707941163754 | 0.394898762912872 | 0.546220229590452 |
| 45 | 112.8 | 113.217060017035 | 0.198633909638723 | -0.41706001703455 | 0.997129139653574 |
| 46 | 109.8 | 109.030296798522 | 0.164403277977921 | 0.769703201477491 | -1.59748156769750 |
| 47 | 117.3 | 112.370138977343 | 0.183820112320123 | 4.92986102265674 | 1.15692001427661 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 111.706875313938 | 0.179516311244377 | -2.60687531393763 | -0.308471097693046 |
| 49 | 115.9 | 110.011860855866 | 0.170129700851168 | 5.88813914413376 | -0.681263823932619 |
| 50 | 96 | 110.767733414340 | 0.173635599652390 | -14.7677334143401 | 0.211947954752422 |
| 51 | 99.8 | 108.719273771245 | 0.156503024925510 | -8.91927377124538 | -0.799428676081407 |
| 52 | 116.8 | 110.067692960709 | 0.167911013648672 | 6.73230703929065 | 0.426988954180712 |
| 53 | 115.7 | 107.728951054722 | 0.140447058280278 | 7.97104894527806 | -0.897619062052119 |
| 54 | 99.4 | 102.695974272664 | 0.0809280947449408 | -3.29597427266353 | -1.85854962906632 |
| 55 | 94.3 | 102.256967692620 | 0.0751193400567024 | -7.95696769261977 | -0.187663958651076 |
| 56 | 91 | 98.1206288792811 | 0.0323539467074631 | -7.12062887928114 | -1.52625463107751 |
| 57 | 93.2 | 94.8211628678034 | 0.00315485374652326 | -1.62116286780336 | -1.21053837022496 |
| 58 | 103.1 | 97.5671834813805 | 0.0232589938868739 | 5.5328165186195 | 0.997738158170022 |
| 59 | 94.1 | 94.6454119296282 | 0.00513789010988046 | -0.545411929628159 | -1.07157936364149 |
| 60 | 91.8 | 93.409164439378 | -0.00166425573088006 | -1.60916443937796 | -0.451452290412623 |
| 61 | 102.7 | 94.317388015458 | 0.00329904417405525 | 8.38261198454195 | 0.330353121774033 |
