| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 105.7 | 105.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 105.7 | 105.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 111.1 | 107.344641890952 | 0.192645853206376 | 2.61208368861288 | 0.338190942124921 |
| 4 | 82.4 | 100.326895275061 | -0.600075382294971 | -13.3728498193399 | -1.42240244421262 |
| 5 | 60 | 87.5174259941417 | -1.75053664145693 | -18.6911621834243 | -2.69747621349687 |
| 6 | 107.3 | 89.0505718051163 | -1.49024760263120 | 15.5605353932202 | 0.800690552131691 |
| 7 | 99.3 | 91.5510583669497 | -1.22151612148269 | 4.19590289301452 | 1.03906782151807 |
| 8 | 113.5 | 97.0803743430234 | -0.82649359825072 | 10.0842550171730 | 1.83162986128148 |
| 9 | 108.9 | 101.109892214078 | -0.573229049764033 | 3.07978723134908 | 1.35201187170876 |
| 10 | 100.2 | 101.863925582374 | -0.510117976845719 | -2.97895841956451 | 0.375707424520647 |
| 11 | 103.9 | 102.401034270145 | -0.463902980348401 | 0.446663665654385 | 0.299715812680959 |
| 12 | 138.7 | 110.632002148510 | -0.103094587762238 | 19.2449523969423 | 2.50755696337587 |
| 13 | 120.2 | 114.059543859670 | -0.190180560818469 | 1.92359980046363 | 1.23823994394763 |
| 14 | 100.2 | 111.897671017583 | -0.207307663468807 | -9.64748941798102 | -0.605839568422443 |
| 15 | 143.2 | 115.869341409268 | -0.0674033660246292 | 23.6302832681622 | 1.12517454127873 |
| 16 | 70.9 | 107.833054548370 | -0.40881613499513 | -30.2736412071263 | -2.06384449651805 |
| 17 | 85.2 | 105.324844806329 | -0.501441985889379 | -18.3500702207372 | -0.552217588272277 |
| 18 | 133 | 107.973186321593 | -0.369766808282961 | 22.2707069497622 | 0.854582903422955 |
| 19 | 136.6 | 114.966678922867 | -0.0879056676377233 | 14.9659936411966 | 2.05648191777593 |
| 20 | 117.9 | 116.096642695102 | -0.0456632230693495 | 0.670232969393747 | 0.347822952829285 |
| 21 | 106.3 | 114.168671211143 | -0.104755625208360 | -6.08193441103327 | -0.546295481200169 |
| 22 | 122.3 | 116.676648421222 | -0.0309511972668592 | 3.10592737659815 | 0.76709068478743 |
| 23 | 125.5 | 120.692182095864 | 0.0685164307821748 | 0.858464331763287 | 1.19918274733023 |
| 24 | 148.4 | 124.142749663215 | 0.132392437914821 | 20.9029679856657 | 1.01425815229225 |
| 25 | 126.3 | 125.061029125421 | 0.138413570838339 | 0.43181112242668 | 0.243563898297384 |
| 26 | 99.6 | 122.452534870750 | 0.105562095003110 | -20.1075419925221 | -0.83038327942993 |
| 27 | 140.4 | 119.344557009627 | 0.04145299970288 | 24.1072260256246 | -0.931303001259527 |
| 28 | 80.3 | 116.764696837760 | -0.0253619980276945 | -34.0559029742654 | -0.74137934681779 |
| 29 | 92.6 | 115.889376630318 | -0.0490861674383372 | -22.5142869220263 | -0.239630627759551 |
| 30 | 138.5 | 116.97627899392 | -0.0171800397997237 | 20.4791333381957 | 0.323196170420406 |
| 31 | 110.9 | 113.048117077832 | -0.122538944725756 | 1.50083197840010 | -1.12744357000475 |
| 32 | 119.6 | 113.275214429285 | -0.113758541897876 | 5.99364189556269 | 0.102086436374914 |
| 33 | 105 | 113.683652284626 | -0.101778182958227 | -9.18479299296355 | 0.15411037847406 |
| 34 | 109 | 113.091021042820 | -0.111845557685268 | -3.61473435456395 | -0.146100933780694 |
| 35 | 129.4 | 116.490495667621 | -0.0495630727102119 | 9.46964457735282 | 1.05258495626533 |
| 36 | 148.6 | 119.333678281753 | -0.00740157810017592 | 26.4063684877909 | 0.873169678890295 |
| 37 | 101.4 | 115.550594678437 | -0.0513249479897345 | -10.3879756007015 | -1.14689559312488 |
| 38 | 134.8 | 121.683903661659 | 0.0262799532029827 | 7.00925803213681 | 1.86291849004383 |
| 39 | 143.7 | 122.332912563487 | 0.0359178839176765 | 20.7638946239946 | 0.184605385249156 |
| 40 | 81.6 | 121.010149249715 | 0.0111010033999638 | -38.1150948868998 | -0.397874960559327 |
| 41 | 90.3 | 118.927498745418 | -0.0307478101275528 | -26.6455086896791 | -0.610582232646936 |
| 42 | 141.5 | 118.219588831063 | -0.0446698127104764 | 23.9223417303094 | -0.197972368086141 |
| 43 | 140.7 | 122.442773121828 | 0.0416232181086506 | 14.1856430975425 | 1.25537409573191 |
| 44 | 140.2 | 126.116926947210 | 0.111547948973462 | 10.5889732034897 | 1.07616620875523 |
| 45 | 100.2 | 124.027500026556 | 0.0722118925801899 | -21.6929123064011 | -0.65647133991494 |
| 46 | 125.7 | 125.434265889989 | 0.0938822776085803 | -1.03816030193676 | 0.400356465308575 |
| 47 | 119.6 | 123.205986542125 | 0.0602670909621095 | -1.32286003963186 | -0.6999493453182 |
| 48 | 134.7 | 119.542745794677 | 0.0126008804425881 | 18.8361764870504 | -1.12641386259487 |
| 49 | 109 | 119.600851986044 | 0.013132936655692 | -10.6459083574572 | 0.0137845121989755 |
| 50 | 116.3 | 117.467922575887 | -0.0124766503112657 | 0.948410174632398 | -0.647659949334143 |
| 51 | 146.9 | 118.325760144995 | -0.00104840327659503 | 27.7230476952086 | 0.260848333349537 |
| 52 | 97.4 | 121.810536767577 | 0.0495449346456143 | -27.792987438657 | 1.03843764354762 |
| 53 | 89.4 | 121.867909438974 | 0.0496666138056852 | -32.4754721804237 | 0.00232530902919012 |
| 54 | 132.1 | 120.066957932737 | 0.0200292356458956 | 13.8206473446498 | -0.550063539746591 |
| 55 | 139.8 | 121.161962578917 | 0.037155975146691 | 17.5966587690845 | 0.320454294340977 |
| 56 | 129 | 120.456755547761 | 0.0257230743440486 | 9.26568050088583 | -0.222191854850823 |
| 57 | 112.5 | 122.934935433748 | 0.0614070846420884 | -12.8335725962588 | 0.737088650664419 |
| 58 | 121.9 | 122.880465098057 | 0.0598412153965649 | -0.866591868259193 | -0.0349580802515319 |
| 59 | 121.7 | 122.282889722149 | 0.0516673438225211 | 0.0657419627520186 | -0.198935307335135 |
| 60 | 123.1 | 118.515419077226 | 0.00776149285919243 | 8.36315541656304 | -1.15800237558920 |
