| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 161 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 149 | 150.652804954134 | -7.54703501666725 | -1.65280495413439 | -1.63771582823087 |
| 3 | 139 | 138.982655708135 | -10.5000705669800 | 0.0173442918654433 | -0.526939710259491 |
| 4 | 135 | 133.864161340926 | -6.58052551882916 | 1.13583865907379 | 0.668550281526714 |
| 5 | 130 | 129.954139671962 | -4.65587222479019 | 0.0458603280378227 | 0.332322471049674 |
| 6 | 127 | 126.988868997811 | -3.43357963074273 | 0.0111310021894042 | 0.211954297131278 |
| 7 | 122 | 122.480802464784 | -4.21141819954527 | -0.480802464784292 | -0.134828025796281 |
| 8 | 117 | 117.299039632372 | -4.91378274889712 | -0.299039632372054 | -0.121747720423399 |
| 9 | 112 | 112.158059721224 | -5.0782043812403 | -0.158059721223623 | -0.0285009187671397 |
| 10 | 113 | 112.152979939957 | -1.40695357739817 | 0.84702006004321 | 0.636375230284341 |
| 11 | 149 | 143.070980811444 | 21.9860350450926 | 5.92901918855637 | 4.05494630235283 |
| 12 | 157 | 160.047813503295 | 18.3609133248431 | -3.04781350329533 | -0.628379465082242 |
| 13 | 157 | 159.903599811193 | 5.10296396137905 | -2.90359981119305 | -2.38883808065303 |
| 14 | 147 | 149.560806664401 | -5.5817287150919 | -2.56080666440074 | -1.81943303091513 |
| 15 | 137 | 138.245352406242 | -9.49329810512953 | -1.24535240624249 | -0.687055826502149 |
| 16 | 132 | 130.547108147196 | -8.23855085620497 | 1.45289185280430 | 0.217680474947628 |
| 17 | 125 | 124.929951269511 | -6.41506099135959 | 0.0700487304888313 | 0.314266683881632 |
| 18 | 123 | 122.311131554423 | -3.77713230927587 | 0.68886844557734 | 0.457086040563384 |
| 19 | 117 | 117.442464820216 | -4.53720670332106 | -0.442464820216143 | -0.131772894658241 |
| 20 | 114 | 112.644613186522 | -4.7188049990728 | 1.35538681347791 | -0.0314766363061678 |
| 21 | 111 | 110.204986216342 | -3.1308828302234 | 0.795013783657597 | 0.275251575401009 |
| 22 | 112 | 116.883620972700 | 3.70319077371009 | -4.88362097269987 | 1.18467504374390 |
| 23 | 144 | 135.559334884308 | 14.1277381158775 | 8.44066511569167 | 1.80694466832398 |
| 24 | 150 | 150.249132854924 | 14.5182840473446 | -0.249132854923828 | 0.0678343163534942 |
| 25 | 149 | 151.241416944591 | 5.09798096032244 | -2.24141694459116 | -1.64794338283718 |
| 26 | 134 | 138.216390052434 | -7.37162961885366 | -4.21639005243418 | -2.14798335074383 |
| 27 | 123 | 125.000778753994 | -11.3489070289402 | -2.00077875399352 | -0.692409525363189 |
| 28 | 116 | 114.706233550882 | -10.6226325870103 | 1.29376644911757 | 0.126377475930886 |
| 29 | 117 | 115.506657540663 | -2.75215508903027 | 1.49334245933688 | 1.35936480510199 |
| 30 | 111 | 110.708874214596 | -4.15790634141863 | 0.291125785404126 | -0.243353609475447 |
| 31 | 105 | 104.903816307861 | -5.29123277787877 | 0.0961836921393925 | -0.196488507873823 |
| 32 | 102 | 99.9516012637417 | -5.0577121332045 | 2.04839873625832 | 0.0404777932819462 |
| 33 | 95 | 95.9994195843924 | -4.29603794845461 | -0.999419584392443 | 0.132029390768921 |
| 34 | 93 | 100.575947362725 | 1.81514406999319 | -7.57594736272543 | 1.05934968470607 |
| 35 | 124 | 114.716730869536 | 10.2949290478122 | 9.28326913046433 | 1.47009361589350 |
| 36 | 130 | 127.458922979255 | 11.9773660584991 | 2.54107702074514 | 0.292347366832890 |
| 37 | 124 | 124.778545006160 | 1.88230592681973 | -0.778545006160475 | -1.75505818445573 |
| 38 | 115 | 118.497472376771 | -3.70343843832279 | -3.4974723767715 | -0.965125704944754 |
| 39 | 106 | 109.174032358363 | -7.52463032938233 | -3.1740323583633 | -0.663538604465324 |
| 40 | 105 | 105.755526274766 | -4.71574222647919 | -0.755526274765991 | 0.488514565709078 |
| 41 | 105 | 102.742947895194 | -3.54856038586611 | 2.25705210480565 | 0.201972304211223 |
| 42 | 101 | 99.8632794521701 | -3.09119351949751 | 1.13672054782987 | 0.0791583705697196 |
| 43 | 95 | 94.6588556491954 | -4.53655741085967 | 0.341144350804620 | -0.250532278129223 |
| 44 | 93 | 90.2396448656509 | -4.45620607426935 | 2.76035513434908 | 0.0139285858809953 |
| 45 | 84 | 86.9085081809692 | -3.68554823403002 | -2.90850818096915 | 0.133585736338728 |
| 46 | 87 | 95.858702493427 | 4.96625720967545 | -8.85870249342702 | 1.49970820122581 |
| 47 | 116 | 107.161890545002 | 9.30092899023232 | 8.83810945499783 | 0.751662415942542 |
| 48 | 120 | 114.589597038435 | 8.01944986891799 | 5.41040296156527 | -0.222564300568298 |
| 49 | 117 | 116.777751253016 | 4.02677612580734 | 0.222248746983824 | -0.69282149433411 |
| 50 | 109 | 112.572077361047 | -1.58619846105863 | -3.57207736104712 | -0.971012714933745 |
| 51 | 105 | 109.467059550568 | -2.61781299630844 | -4.46705955056778 | -0.178979442183705 |
| 52 | 107 | 108.081673612220 | -1.77786881547401 | -1.08167361222045 | 0.145955639649442 |
| 53 | 109 | 106.789387532202 | -1.44627945369066 | 2.21061246779847 | 0.0574403511461303 |
| 54 | 109 | 106.601581858759 | -0.588191073262772 | 2.39841814124124 | 0.148539974470227 |
| 55 | 108 | 106.71782747458 | -0.108014553164348 | 1.28217252542003 | 0.0832118945730557 |
| 56 | 107 | 104.475962916450 | -1.56378235106117 | 2.5240370835505 | -0.252350865505948 |
| 57 | 99 | 104.861227371625 | -0.233559643920123 | -5.86122737162458 | 0.230580814859165 |
| 58 | 103 | 112.418024398797 | 5.08136494623352 | -9.4180243987968 | 0.921317388795852 |
| 59 | 131 | 121.528368754438 | 7.8284185439313 | 9.4716312455623 | 0.476423357856821 |
| 60 | 137 | 130.136884001081 | 8.3605269039473 | 6.86311599891946 | 0.0923648662541242 |
