| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 8.6 | 8.59450288184909 | 0.186336498471207 | 0.00549711815091083 | 0.542139808952547 |
| 5 | 8.9 | 8.89818757487719 | 0.298820878666345 | 0.00181242512281285 | 0.327604743032395 |
| 6 | 8.8 | 8.81218879419231 | -0.0701036903600278 | -0.0121887941923082 | -1.0744078602474 |
| 7 | 8.3 | 8.30982820712854 | -0.484497368791315 | -0.00982820712853705 | -1.20682693844648 |
| 8 | 7.5 | 7.50619437027392 | -0.790443779007934 | -0.00619437027391512 | -0.890998953192124 |
| 9 | 7.2 | 7.1841981799698 | -0.341356654372683 | 0.0158018200302004 | 1.30786355065082 |
| 10 | 7.4 | 7.38783991849545 | 0.181117624453733 | 0.0121600815045500 | 1.52158685435875 |
| 11 | 8.8 | 8.76940313327973 | 1.33195018155721 | 0.0305968667202731 | 3.35153664288356 |
| 12 | 9.3 | 9.33141796858167 | 0.593835381079452 | -0.0314179685816659 | -2.14959055962222 |
| 13 | 9.3 | 9.31206024620503 | 0.00614229913265951 | -0.0120602462050237 | -1.71219001997661 |
| 14 | 8.7 | 8.71417121390012 | -0.573184008276645 | -0.0141712139001166 | -1.69423863951449 |
| 15 | 8.2 | 8.19291377757677 | -0.524590012218204 | 0.00708622242323257 | 0.142937770280577 |
| 16 | 8.3 | 8.27870651858461 | 0.0460847758066103 | 0.0212934814153921 | 1.66000271945657 |
| 17 | 8.5 | 8.49082657038934 | 0.201233413953079 | 0.00917342961065437 | 0.451892590507891 |
| 18 | 8.6 | 8.61026011305591 | 0.124775165732414 | -0.0102601130559145 | -0.222666517111757 |
| 19 | 8.5 | 8.49906162872325 | -0.0957893751730662 | 0.0009383712767499 | -0.642344401582395 |
| 20 | 8.2 | 8.22059950369853 | -0.266530263226196 | -0.0205995036985341 | -0.497243774358148 |
| 21 | 8.1 | 8.0671242661379 | -0.160859902044925 | 0.0328757338620984 | 0.307740764488693 |
| 22 | 7.9 | 7.9519178929486 | -0.118188339236399 | -0.0519178929486033 | 0.124271169664202 |
| 23 | 8.6 | 8.51974095973871 | 0.523020367497446 | 0.080259040261289 | 1.86737445325227 |
| 24 | 8.7 | 8.7424253381197 | 0.242306274407083 | -0.0424253381196999 | -0.8175171896451 |
| 25 | 8.7 | 8.69797842724487 | -0.0256417206056453 | 0.00202157275512926 | -0.780709100960954 |
| 26 | 8.5 | 8.50132251246483 | -0.185569562503805 | -0.00132251246482670 | -0.466614956822868 |
| 27 | 8.4 | 8.41811469353935 | -0.0911547063213842 | -0.0181146935393472 | 0.276352870301122 |
| 28 | 8.5 | 8.4836511593258 | 0.0535992036847195 | 0.0163488406741942 | 0.421298118657457 |
| 29 | 8.7 | 8.68738617815933 | 0.192128800651334 | 0.0126138218406734 | 0.403448763895573 |
| 30 | 8.7 | 8.71184394878778 | 0.0373675017945224 | -0.0118439487877778 | -0.450712780267858 |
| 31 | 8.6 | 8.59304152670997 | -0.106783563881493 | 0.00695847329002688 | -0.419806817830184 |
| 32 | 8.5 | 8.52145780871233 | -0.0742934064926835 | -0.0214578087123312 | 0.0946201826656657 |
| 33 | 8.3 | 8.25530817586004 | -0.251378877726735 | 0.0446918241399638 | -0.515720954263528 |
| 34 | 8 | 8.09985758883582 | -0.162835388833424 | -0.0998575888358217 | 0.257862671210054 |
| 35 | 8.2 | 8.10177341255155 | -0.0107652022417415 | 0.0982265874484516 | 0.442870737944124 |
| 36 | 8.1 | 8.12955809375315 | 0.0248150432402895 | -0.0295580937531451 | 0.103619748756330 |
| 37 | 8.1 | 8.08810141986608 | -0.0363394533713269 | 0.0118985801339163 | -0.178202264373939 |
| 38 | 8 | 8.00409711361563 | -0.0803437981701123 | -0.00409711361562836 | -0.128225093271845 |
| 39 | 7.9 | 7.9241028133476 | -0.080023604231224 | -0.0241028133476076 | 0.000934916941762015 |
| 40 | 7.9 | 7.89861201034747 | -0.0299689247701155 | 0.00138798965252551 | 0.145753330538329 |
| 41 | 8 | 7.97379475851115 | 0.0664268345841462 | 0.0262052414888480 | 0.280701723197123 |
| 42 | 8 | 8.00277087301101 | 0.0320854763466518 | -0.00277087301101287 | -0.100014939197683 |
| 43 | 7.9 | 7.91018055910298 | -0.0822476986425896 | -0.0101805591029809 | -0.332968048500968 |
| 44 | 8 | 7.99301301521662 | 0.0691358795899048 | 0.00698698478337603 | 0.440870367703134 |
| 45 | 7.7 | 7.67726132357204 | -0.283812957491661 | 0.0227386764279626 | -1.02788278615441 |
| 46 | 7.2 | 7.3141959239161 | -0.356489541200404 | -0.114195923916094 | -0.211653986485931 |
| 47 | 7.5 | 7.38278412037487 | 0.0333207469073576 | 0.117215879625126 | 1.13523790722274 |
| 48 | 7.3 | 7.33239981069436 | -0.0434311786450603 | -0.032399810694358 | -0.223525681529458 |
| 49 | 7 | 7.00145157623927 | -0.307046239928848 | -0.00145157623927222 | -0.768172856093289 |
| 50 | 7 | 6.98466972743133 | -0.0409007030036084 | 0.0153302725686740 | 0.77512340161062 |
| 51 | 7 | 7.02053972426448 | 0.0291743944877572 | -0.0205397242644795 | 0.204371834297510 |
| 52 | 7.2 | 7.20162942663088 | 0.168063168540456 | -0.00162942663088353 | 0.404538839841147 |
| 53 | 7.3 | 7.27829417803854 | 0.0845877803907532 | 0.0217058219614643 | -0.243056860738686 |
| 54 | 7.1 | 7.10447766873797 | -0.151449040374118 | -0.00447766873797478 | -0.687434972770834 |
| 55 | 6.8 | 6.84491095858611 | -0.250218854362103 | -0.044910958586107 | -0.287643356539499 |
| 56 | 6.4 | 6.37048585356149 | -0.455039514945662 | 0.0295141464385114 | -0.596493447011743 |
| 57 | 6.1 | 6.04662841713655 | -0.335201367206379 | 0.0533715828634461 | 0.349001215668825 |
| 58 | 6.5 | 6.60630158823162 | 0.482295506431774 | -0.106301588231619 | 2.38077547677439 |
| 59 | 7.7 | 7.56100590096338 | 0.913854115088924 | 0.138994099036624 | 1.25681899661878 |
| 60 | 7.9 | 7.93198033091878 | 0.417984603653717 | -0.0319803309187814 | -1.44415926819459 |
| 61 | 7.5 | 7.56674274440778 | -0.297445557429344 | -0.06674274440778 | -2.08462594732407 |
| 62 | 6.9 | 6.90371487086696 | -0.631307123974338 | -0.00371487086695706 | -0.972161148286413 |
| 63 | 6.6 | 6.61464816362608 | -0.319647774563612 | -0.0146481636260801 | 0.908425293627625 |
| 64 | 6.9 | 6.86899601328774 | 0.203719304920818 | 0.0310039867122609 | 1.52458534731289 |
| 65 | 7.7 | 7.63511448773715 | 0.716126230078677 | 0.0648855122628517 | 1.49193598767762 |
| 66 | 8 | 8.0266609508785 | 0.420394582704619 | -0.0266609508785065 | -0.861286443508214 |
| 67 | 8 | 8.03730886785195 | 0.0470167974500614 | -0.0373088678519463 | -1.08737666402777 |
| 68 | 7.7 | 7.66381937553885 | -0.336168985306571 | 0.0361806244611525 | -1.11593967357225 |
| 69 | 7.3 | 7.30718183205484 | -0.354820772858166 | -0.00718183205484464 | -0.0543190866513019 |
| 70 | 7.4 | 7.53910678983084 | 0.17984804454146 | -0.139106789830835 | 1.55710462546365 |
| 71 | 8.1 | 7.93571205300436 | 0.377362761122093 | 0.164287946995636 | 0.575216160067762 |
| 72 | 8.3 | 8.28099711948655 | 0.348136768855624 | 0.0190028805134527 | -0.0851193254992055 |
| 73 | 8.2 | 8.24143453405873 | -0.00513654574708017 | -0.0414345340587352 | -1.02927863813055 |
