| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.80116511062432 | -0.0989311795123792 | -0.00116511062431548 | -0.282751620481151 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.3111650143321 | -0.477189480934895 | -0.0111650143321000 | -1.09234441260947 |
| 4 | 7.5 | 7.50640511938206 | -0.791631310115204 | -0.00640511938205747 | -0.892873240433318 |
| 5 | 7.2 | 7.18503514599877 | -0.339964678960045 | 0.0149648540012271 | 1.28373061268300 |
| 6 | 7.4 | 7.38863829204952 | 0.182180591798653 | 0.0113617079504795 | 1.48396631035935 |
| 7 | 8.8 | 8.77102959225823 | 1.33506658076245 | 0.0289704077417715 | 3.27656850899902 |
| 8 | 9.3 | 9.33021728964243 | 0.589784159016862 | -0.0302172896424309 | -2.11813549261455 |
| 9 | 9.3 | 9.31161259681123 | 0.00538604414095833 | -0.0116125968112328 | -1.6608930432081 |
| 10 | 8.7 | 8.71268521128293 | -0.575097457634592 | -0.0126852112829362 | -1.64976748750803 |
| 11 | 8.2 | 8.1944642782976 | -0.520463752234779 | 0.00553572170239226 | 0.155272131963560 |
| 12 | 8.3 | 8.28387886134105 | 0.0653651703181595 | 0.0161211386589456 | 1.66495948069117 |
| 13 | 8.5 | 8.4994732046533 | 0.209633542448509 | 0.000526795346705918 | 0.410171625509456 |
| 14 | 8.6 | 8.60302724287449 | 0.10769334662923 | -0.00302724287448834 | -0.290885332876739 |
| 15 | 8.5 | 8.49939254551501 | -0.0906308482338243 | 0.000607454484992285 | -0.56915629633319 |
| 16 | 8.2 | 8.22114002512543 | -0.266503472689155 | -0.0211400251254290 | -0.499275050458061 |
| 17 | 8.1 | 8.06859506650381 | -0.159729499455314 | 0.0314049334961882 | 0.303494460607542 |
| 18 | 7.9 | 7.9504542607466 | -0.120752516451051 | -0.0504542607465975 | 0.110774490408360 |
| 19 | 8.6 | 8.52301694939901 | 0.529022662180614 | 0.0769830506009897 | 1.84670003104847 |
| 20 | 8.7 | 8.74171634371209 | 0.238192770378631 | -0.0417163437120898 | -0.826555246652197 |
| 21 | 8.7 | 8.69897726508716 | -0.0250918156324362 | 0.00102273491284020 | -0.748269937356021 |
| 22 | 8.5 | 8.50556690768398 | -0.182837382859991 | -0.00556690768397682 | -0.448321976087315 |
| 23 | 8.4 | 8.4088918022782 | -0.102086748566112 | -0.0088918022781924 | 0.229498022688034 |
| 24 | 8.5 | 8.48440480837169 | 0.0643545088790036 | 0.0155951916283108 | 0.47303647532219 |
| 25 | 8.7 | 8.6947721195464 | 0.201158835189445 | 0.0052278804536009 | 0.388981265434598 |
| 26 | 8.7 | 8.70717941319444 | 0.0241738054931103 | -0.00717941319444131 | -0.503921089884762 |
| 27 | 8.6 | 8.59185891650277 | -0.104863339065838 | 0.00814108349722883 | -0.368581482019345 |
| 28 | 8.5 | 8.52267464327635 | -0.0718135929079912 | -0.0226746432763477 | 0.0938686093731788 |
| 29 | 8.3 | 8.256898445496 | -0.251282773698354 | 0.0431015545040007 | -0.510083273041614 |
| 30 | 8 | 8.09768740595025 | -0.166063730839384 | -0.0976874059502524 | 0.242199854442588 |
| 31 | 8.2 | 8.10462034736826 | -0.0059377504203659 | 0.0953796526317395 | 0.455087165429725 |
| 32 | 8.1 | 8.13036200215647 | 0.0233841422091786 | -0.0303620021564676 | 0.0833345244824027 |
| 33 | 8.1 | 8.09014705982349 | -0.0354815638235687 | 0.0098529401765114 | -0.167299726482142 |
| 34 | 8 | 8.00655886836528 | -0.0800081143337638 | -0.00655886836527993 | -0.126547020089523 |
| 35 | 7.9 | 7.9148843387258 | -0.090806451314017 | -0.0148843387257907 | -0.0306895626239415 |
| 36 | 7.9 | 7.8960375512163 | -0.0242053365183239 | 0.00396244878370423 | 0.189284883186909 |
| 37 | 8 | 7.9813592280208 | 0.0771458592453621 | 0.0186407719792000 | 0.288205654434986 |
| 38 | 8 | 8.00060964775332 | 0.0235476075564089 | -0.000609647753322567 | -0.152418334971885 |
| 39 | 7.9 | 7.90799502759682 | -0.0831752697023524 | -0.00799502759681478 | -0.304111733842731 |
| 40 | 8 | 7.99479706720854 | 0.0732671557566858 | 0.00520293279145892 | 0.444540005722395 |
| 41 | 7.7 | 7.67793272093754 | -0.28537064321275 | 0.0220672790624626 | -1.01918476015459 |
| 42 | 7.2 | 7.31235165181671 | -0.359125510900463 | -0.112351651816708 | -0.209622129067310 |
| 43 | 7.5 | 7.38514215681945 | 0.0380552893580257 | 0.114857843180549 | 1.12880724109671 |
| 44 | 7.3 | 7.3338869911354 | -0.0440714939602683 | -0.0338869911353984 | -0.233409192515345 |
| 45 | 7 | 7.00332994115018 | -0.307510243260277 | -0.00332994115017805 | -0.748708086482017 |
| 46 | 7 | 6.98591465417594 | -0.040750106309603 | 0.0140853458240569 | 0.758147806048401 |
| 47 | 7 | 7.01293555706717 | 0.0215699729508071 | -0.0129355570671717 | 0.177117933216027 |
| 48 | 7.2 | 7.19920910614585 | 0.173010844470607 | 0.00079089385415466 | 0.430409039622866 |
| 49 | 7.3 | 7.28469687495622 | 0.0925418831471268 | 0.0153031250437844 | -0.228827733082672 |
| 50 | 7.1 | 7.1033193555692 | -0.159316911146325 | -0.00331935556920586 | -0.715843643918503 |
| 51 | 6.8 | 6.84155945681376 | -0.253084869175999 | -0.0415594568137613 | -0.266886673704591 |
| 52 | 6.4 | 6.3722661816598 | -0.451292429441536 | 0.0277338183402029 | -0.563372996812719 |
| 53 | 6.1 | 6.04811626816333 | -0.33485233658452 | 0.0518837318366739 | 0.330873375589449 |
| 54 | 6.5 | 6.60579968606385 | 0.482676445456254 | -0.105799686063849 | 2.32356290755763 |
| 55 | 7.7 | 7.56406066544086 | 0.91833694420958 | 0.135939334559141 | 1.23816733332057 |
| 56 | 7.9 | 7.93429932424964 | 0.416252565729041 | -0.0342993242496419 | -1.42695310587975 |
| 57 | 7.5 | 7.56597644032848 | -0.302447461947194 | -0.0659764403284789 | -2.04258685254906 |
| 58 | 6.9 | 6.90093570241678 | -0.63459888729584 | -0.000935702416784052 | -0.943994372545665 |
| 59 | 6.6 | 6.60725402942677 | -0.322304655662228 | -0.00725402942676914 | 0.88756062858964 |
| 60 | 6.9 | 6.86927917180645 | 0.212898058094026 | 0.0307208281935522 | 1.52112584256506 |
