| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 785.8 | 785.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 819.3 | 817.609282416434 | 2.67691669634891 | 1.69071758356565 | 0.39719223433328 |
| 3 | 849.4 | 847.720422441074 | 6.8457719559912 | 1.67957755892550 | 0.533925998333214 |
| 4 | 880.4 | 878.728299666824 | 11.6089242081624 | 1.67170033317598 | 0.457582594189363 |
| 5 | 900.1 | 898.430343864027 | 13.4318026707852 | 1.66965613597312 | 0.150572765794228 |
| 6 | 937.2 | 935.534877703158 | 19.1547469770608 | 1.66512229684247 | 0.435741924222337 |
| 7 | 948.9 | 947.233808359028 | 17.2823436060088 | 1.66619164097247 | -0.136394450123664 |
| 8 | 952.6 | 950.93235956639 | 13.8000063715200 | 1.66764043360883 | -0.247639628313144 |
| 9 | 947.3 | 945.630850424226 | 8.84811679642649 | 1.66914957577367 | -0.347566601463131 |
| 10 | 974.2 | 972.531904715653 | 13.5566759407004 | 1.66809528434752 | 0.3281445814981 |
| 11 | 1000.8 | 999.13246713868 | 16.9700300135244 | 1.66753286132071 | 0.236961926540982 |
| 12 | 1032.8 | 1031.13294532186 | 20.91030792724 | 1.66705467814030 | 0.272967387597524 |
| 13 | 1050.7 | 1064.19528093053 | 23.9861078329843 | -13.4952809305295 | 0.256142096431306 |
| 14 | 1057.3 | 1056.77482598595 | 16.140104236904 | 0.525174014053045 | -0.476856585731127 |
| 15 | 1075.4 | 1074.87717814867 | 16.6562750391262 | 0.522821851332131 | 0.0355656476534347 |
| 16 | 1118.4 | 1117.90047570500 | 23.5865448498081 | 0.499524295004611 | 0.478147592285431 |
| 17 | 1179.8 | 1179.32512473132 | 33.5280995815171 | 0.474875268683573 | 0.686401833691654 |
| 18 | 1227 | 1226.53169455762 | 37.1213936863546 | 0.468305442379223 | 0.248191353229814 |
| 19 | 1257.8 | 1257.32945512834 | 35.4602836533393 | 0.470544871660763 | -0.114758419392082 |
| 20 | 1251.5 | 1251.01854819546 | 24.4877623896678 | 0.481451804534982 | -0.758128365479101 |
| 21 | 1236.3 | 1235.81090598933 | 14.0603520655634 | 0.489094010668068 | -0.720510051317063 |
| 22 | 1170.6 | 1170.09958259550 | -6.89496964288594 | 0.500417404495105 | -1.44801390892128 |
| 23 | 1213.1 | 1212.60475273339 | 6.08229481863566 | 0.495247266608715 | 0.896746339175407 |
| 24 | 1265.5 | 1265.00832708782 | 18.2509826282907 | 0.491672912180066 | 0.840881089688386 |
| 25 | 1300.8 | 1302.58843568902 | 23.2522482701005 | -1.78843568902327 | 0.378965520562840 |
| 26 | 1348.4 | 1347.92035387033 | 28.8668834649575 | 0.479646129670325 | 0.360460365295743 |
| 27 | 1371.9 | 1371.41608794063 | 27.4542262841326 | 0.483912059369256 | -0.0974010858232042 |
| 28 | 1403.3 | 1402.81839950051 | 28.4919255256697 | 0.481600499488614 | 0.0716210713320114 |
| 29 | 1451.8 | 1451.32703971248 | 33.7513787005342 | 0.472960287518644 | 0.363203749207738 |
| 30 | 1474.2 | 1473.72342600172 | 30.7682430707837 | 0.4765739982753 | -0.206069355466187 |
| 31 | 1438.2 | 1437.70775553654 | 13.2240239121624 | 0.49224446345753 | -1.21211965582312 |
| 32 | 1513.6 | 1513.11851407799 | 29.5603326892345 | 0.481485922008465 | 1.12876620314203 |
| 33 | 1562.2 | 1561.72094300987 | 34.5626687168323 | 0.4790569901292 | 0.345655853288744 |
| 34 | 1546.2 | 1545.71618730810 | 21.2785175141530 | 0.483812691902991 | -0.917944182211116 |
| 35 | 1527.5 | 1527.01341499785 | 10.7752302529652 | 0.486585002153875 | -0.725794894781744 |
| 36 | 1418.7 | 1418.20730152607 | -20.6397594865404 | 0.492698473930562 | -2.17084571764114 |
| 37 | 1448.5 | 1447.77614094509 | -7.57910563285872 | 0.72385905490675 | 0.960074783422643 |
| 38 | 1492.1 | 1491.6213716054 | 5.61123607123262 | 0.47862839460027 | 0.865517533559587 |
| 39 | 1395.4 | 1394.86114539285 | -21.3056704956263 | 0.538854607147992 | -1.85696181010308 |
| 40 | 1403.7 | 1403.17399088462 | -13.521747457278 | 0.526009115377599 | 0.537408060928477 |
| 41 | 1316.6 | 1316.05045698711 | -32.8602069476179 | 0.549543012891735 | -1.33569010807091 |
| 42 | 1274.5 | 1273.94827825169 | -35.2882279703313 | 0.551721748310102 | -0.167738647801777 |
| 43 | 1264.4 | 1263.85265703700 | -28.6699786105155 | 0.547342962996684 | 0.457273961923214 |
| 44 | 1323.9 | 1323.36395757756 | -5.50446386409072 | 0.536042422442138 | 1.60067779808003 |
| 45 | 1332.1 | 1331.56525257134 | -1.90390376092505 | 0.534747428658438 | 0.248798403139152 |
| 46 | 1250.2 | 1249.65967937765 | -22.9208508660966 | 0.540320622345836 | -1.45229757317388 |
| 47 | 1096.7 | 1096.15297219280 | -57.2269050840887 | 0.547027807197017 | -2.37061674091869 |
| 48 | 1080.8 | 1080.25453725348 | -46.369458607251 | 0.545462746522689 | 0.750275514409668 |
| 49 | 1039.2 | 1044.25763222343 | -43.6643470865065 | -5.05763222342639 | 0.195832418939757 |
| 50 | 792 | 793.278437919647 | -97.1088401705711 | -1.27843791964651 | -3.54866067243658 |
| 51 | 746.6 | 747.902599241084 | -83.5087750771732 | -1.30259924108436 | 0.938570404677832 |
| 52 | 688.8 | 690.111454041365 | -76.750486622232 | -1.31145404136497 | 0.466683921680099 |
| 53 | 715.8 | 717.137797289207 | -49.4842359072828 | -1.33779728920699 | 1.88344525119048 |
| 54 | 672.9 | 674.239029796824 | -47.7541191975249 | -1.33902979682444 | 0.119530812847165 |
| 55 | 629.5 | 630.839630696876 | -46.6100959362039 | -1.33963069687565 | 0.0790462235088793 |
| 56 | 681.2 | 682.549633566706 | -20.7807519469652 | -1.34963356670612 | 1.78477045555338 |
| 57 | 755.4 | 756.756758657565 | 4.17325989438115 | -1.35675865756537 | 1.72433530226900 |
| 58 | 760.6 | 761.956815444139 | 4.44300874407886 | -1.35681544413915 | 0.0186400750996998 |
| 59 | 765.9 | 767.256850389777 | 4.66815896021728 | -1.35685038977692 | 0.0155583692333735 |
| 60 | 836.8 | 838.158841592364 | 22.0686346454974 | -1.35884159236399 | 1.20241617704689 |
| 61 | 904.9 | 887.949577141857 | 29.3093455405917 | 16.9504228581431 | 0.519368014977001 |
