| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 149 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 139 | 140.642680576515 | -8.49307815026848 | -1.64268057651493 | -1.53765266125616 |
| 3 | 135 | 133.500074333951 | -7.48479596270134 | 1.49992566604908 | 0.179646588980101 |
| 4 | 130 | 129.283276243248 | -4.92518488309534 | 0.716723756752483 | 0.429256154743507 |
| 5 | 127 | 126.651382555049 | -3.16631001843137 | 0.348617444950974 | 0.291079352906523 |
| 6 | 122 | 122.311849936321 | -4.06655159085912 | -0.311849936321065 | -0.149789544700316 |
| 7 | 117 | 117.091867312654 | -4.95319531857533 | -0.0918673126539773 | -0.147350847235532 |
| 8 | 112 | 111.898546268554 | -5.13780074827845 | 0.101453731446092 | -0.030678983366815 |
| 9 | 113 | 111.824958833281 | -1.24511431262927 | 1.17504116671907 | 0.646919143568898 |
| 10 | 149 | 142.446719252551 | 23.2474238085275 | 6.55328074744891 | 4.07033839229334 |
| 11 | 157 | 160.104218695606 | 18.9510630761748 | -3.10421869560569 | -0.713999477056228 |
| 12 | 157 | 160.519666867978 | 4.70448911649624 | -3.51966686797777 | -2.36759559411703 |
| 13 | 147 | 149.423130932804 | -7.41655389196125 | -2.42313093280427 | -2.01924575973931 |
| 14 | 137 | 138.651364472095 | -9.99854288348633 | -1.65136447209467 | -0.435433688410373 |
| 15 | 132 | 130.534993534140 | -8.61043184634518 | 1.46500646586046 | 0.230491923985758 |
| 16 | 125 | 124.486759690037 | -6.7092464825685 | 0.513240309963174 | 0.320020400182524 |
| 17 | 123 | 121.875694581931 | -3.66906382684766 | 1.12430541806935 | 0.503847616814496 |
| 18 | 117 | 117.154745667397 | -4.44511553052076 | -0.154745667396741 | -0.128904542228427 |
| 19 | 114 | 112.241921807902 | -4.79063040828097 | 1.75807819209767 | -0.0574491052755323 |
| 20 | 111 | 109.914705067346 | -2.96936429543693 | 1.08529493265401 | 0.302662382626359 |
| 21 | 112 | 116.976242299824 | 4.44713746808584 | -4.97624229982413 | 1.23251262198667 |
| 22 | 144 | 135.039765069888 | 14.5141101045557 | 8.96023493011166 | 1.67305690975416 |
| 23 | 150 | 150.237117393657 | 15.0191564854999 | -0.237117393656592 | 0.0839323489125045 |
| 24 | 149 | 152.117735497448 | 5.3147578699753 | -3.11773549744823 | -1.61305750864612 |
| 25 | 134 | 139.248256960133 | -8.11523536092009 | -5.24825696013339 | -2.2378636708975 |
| 26 | 123 | 125.537574114383 | -12.2528618936276 | -2.53757411438341 | -0.68856124472217 |
| 27 | 116 | 114.622774908123 | -11.2751993877573 | 1.37722509187697 | 0.162261823446907 |
| 28 | 117 | 114.934190035589 | -2.80887045221621 | 2.06580996441128 | 1.41518045008513 |
| 29 | 111 | 110.122835175705 | -4.27666918402211 | 0.877164824294993 | -0.24393608941861 |
| 30 | 105 | 104.312497403644 | -5.39670563159406 | 0.687502596355746 | -0.185893147778276 |
| 31 | 102 | 99.421513904895 | -5.02752634984793 | 2.57848609510502 | 0.0613714544182754 |
| 32 | 95 | 95.7214539580626 | -4.05752352454881 | -0.721453958062608 | 0.161219869519527 |
| 33 | 93 | 100.414362189554 | 2.33841008833955 | -7.4143621895544 | 1.06288312950126 |
| 34 | 124 | 114.355181575426 | 10.8185210445949 | 9.64481842457443 | 1.40936625470719 |
| 35 | 130 | 127.555301236208 | 12.5585016763959 | 2.44469876379205 | 0.289158446775954 |
| 36 | 124 | 125.734579232927 | 2.06014739807857 | -1.73457923292679 | -1.74557285435788 |
| 37 | 115 | 119.776311469382 | -3.79779900091381 | -4.77631146938185 | -0.975257794511677 |
| 38 | 106 | 110.058781352843 | -8.12081463749695 | -4.05878135284279 | -0.718291414599892 |
| 39 | 105 | 105.904108687892 | -5.24063090231314 | -0.904108687892376 | 0.478301449981572 |
| 40 | 105 | 102.157704601022 | -4.15587498894287 | 2.84229539897826 | 0.180798076324648 |
| 41 | 101 | 99.0789740558476 | -3.37194082832595 | 1.92102594415243 | 0.130375755907062 |
| 42 | 95 | 93.937052234357 | -4.65785530229202 | 1.06294776564306 | -0.213476291706792 |
| 43 | 93 | 89.62050641417 | -4.41014266812671 | 3.37949358583002 | 0.0411638873681076 |
| 44 | 84 | 86.587003679845 | -3.41035569721649 | -2.58700367984496 | 0.166174772278906 |
| 45 | 87 | 95.6373444638323 | 5.64313017181864 | -8.63734446383228 | 1.50454521176173 |
| 46 | 116 | 106.975877331137 | 9.78108234959173 | 9.02412266886324 | 0.687688851854283 |
| 47 | 120 | 114.692232025580 | 8.28158483850222 | 5.3077679744197 | -0.249204179611138 |
| 48 | 117 | 117.675976326169 | 4.43523333482768 | -0.675976326169283 | -0.639585710530923 |
| 49 | 109 | 113.874904078211 | -1.54813087197722 | -4.87490407821138 | -0.995393229057181 |
| 50 | 105 | 110.472914701071 | -2.89384823860998 | -5.47291470107083 | -0.223548606989907 |
| 51 | 107 | 108.300245479617 | -2.37204396861045 | -1.30024547961667 | 0.0866803898783519 |
| 52 | 109 | 106.305202687956 | -2.09933141825618 | 2.69479731204412 | 0.0453975352294533 |
| 53 | 109 | 105.741816728978 | -0.98629899255522 | 3.25818327102178 | 0.185116680497438 |
| 54 | 108 | 105.870806544331 | -0.178682118569657 | 2.12919345566875 | 0.134123914864716 |
| 55 | 107 | 103.829194688776 | -1.52632852533577 | 3.17080531122411 | -0.223899932731448 |
| 56 | 99 | 104.546454530491 | 0.0971454867296635 | -5.5464545304908 | 0.269819606800327 |
| 57 | 103 | 112.131042314681 | 5.51737273017742 | -9.13104231468078 | 0.900777278002992 |
| 58 | 131 | 121.366370110087 | 8.20885579141082 | 9.63362988991344 | 0.447291391219030 |
| 59 | 137 | 130.380943106825 | 8.7919556953649 | 6.61905689317495 | 0.0969124558026854 |
| 60 | 135 | 134.498138531539 | 5.40894923658199 | 0.50186146846088 | -0.562506573840623 |
