| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.85113803258568 |
| beta | 0.000776052458181784 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 642.1 | 631.018990384616 | 11.0810096153845 |
| 14 | 645.3 | 643.663037746213 | 1.63696225378703 |
| 15 | 647.6 | 647.682478475829 | -0.0824784758291344 |
| 16 | 648.4 | 649.055049993036 | -0.655049993035732 |
| 17 | 648.8 | 649.619018103533 | -0.819018103532812 |
| 18 | 648.9 | 649.813719068193 | -0.913719068192677 |
| 19 | 648.9 | 649.26054623663 | -0.360546236629602 |
| 20 | 648.9 | 648.027961689804 | 0.872038310195649 |
| 21 | 650.3 | 656.732552734673 | -6.43255273467298 |
| 22 | 650.3 | 650.849012982438 | -0.549012982438171 |
| 23 | 650 | 651.76448170791 | -1.76448170790957 |
| 24 | 650 | 650.085919951226 | -0.0859199512262876 |
| 25 | 650.5 | 652.939696752137 | -2.43969675213668 |
| 26 | 658.4 | 652.66223941392 | 5.73776058608041 |
| 27 | 666 | 659.911117117006 | 6.08888288299408 |
| 28 | 675.5 | 666.450262111264 | 9.04973788873633 |
| 29 | 680.7 | 675.25547318668 | 5.44452681331995 |
| 30 | 690.6 | 680.776892838364 | 9.82310716163613 |
| 31 | 690.6 | 689.461354289501 | 1.13864571049919 |
| 32 | 691.1 | 689.706030978773 | 1.39396902122724 |
| 33 | 692.9 | 697.785583048908 | -4.8855830489083 |
| 34 | 693.8 | 694.113686891617 | -0.313686891617522 |
| 35 | 692.8 | 695.067792533913 | -2.26779253391271 |
| 36 | 697.5 | 693.22966434243 | 4.27033565757051 |
| 37 | 699 | 699.462652099881 | -0.46265209988087 |
| 38 | 702.1 | 702.10837491168 | -0.0083749116799936 |
| 39 | 704.8 | 704.538101292678 | 0.261898707322189 |
| 40 | 715.5 | 706.573922640835 | 8.92607735916533 |
| 41 | 721.8 | 714.752606541265 | 7.04739345873452 |
| 42 | 726.4 | 722.306553597568 | 4.09344640243228 |
| 43 | 727.7 | 724.834174801593 | 2.86582519840749 |
| 44 | 727.4 | 726.6007463789 | 0.799253621100434 |
| 45 | 731.3 | 733.252753058162 | -1.95275305816176 |
| 46 | 734.4 | 732.773044701903 | 1.62695529809696 |
| 47 | 733.4 | 735.104657753112 | -1.70465775311197 |
| 48 | 733.4 | 734.736130627043 | -1.33613062704273 |
| 49 | 738.1 | 735.50599361551 | 2.5940063844904 |
| 50 | 742.6 | 740.83631210334 | 1.76368789665958 |
| 51 | 747.2 | 744.831045287364 | 2.36895471263642 |
| 52 | 751.1 | 749.967923875615 | 1.13207612438521 |
| 53 | 752.6 | 751.245919220381 | 1.35408077961858 |
| 54 | 758.9 | 753.523327265407 | 5.37667273459317 |
| 55 | 759.1 | 756.970239015856 | 2.12976098414367 |
| 56 | 764.3 | 757.812032162707 | 6.48796783729301 |
| 57 | 765.6 | 768.909356020471 | -3.30935602047089 |
| 58 | 767.6 | 767.820082923837 | -0.220082923837026 |
| 59 | 767.6 | 768.094650210511 | -0.49465021051094 |
| 60 | 765.6 | 768.82265462753 | -3.22265462753046 |
| 61 | 768.2 | 768.582415546898 | -0.382415546897619 |
| 62 | 770.9 | 771.264361604261 | -0.364361604260921 |
| 63 | 775.1 | 773.545102816125 | 1.55489718387457 |
| 64 | 777.6 | 777.8116148775 | -0.211614877499755 |
| 65 | 778.6 | 777.984737187726 | 0.615262812273954 |
| 66 | 778.9 | 780.237377535784 | -1.33737753578441 |
| 67 | 779.4 | 777.487186682304 | 1.91281331769596 |
| 68 | 779.9 | 778.793777970835 | 1.10622202916500 |
| 69 | 781.7 | 783.84916889733 | -2.14916889733036 |
| 70 | 789.1 | 784.205141305567 | 4.89485869443308 |
| 71 | 788.7 | 788.79362672087 | -0.0936267208702475 |
| 72 | 788.8 | 789.458395673745 | -0.658395673745531 |
| 73 | 790.8 | 791.826726552271 | -1.02672655227127 |
| 74 | 794.1 | 793.965765028985 | 0.134234971015076 |
| 75 | 795.1 | 796.95971720046 | -1.85971720046018 |
| 76 | 797.3 | 798.057830996494 | -0.757830996494249 |
| 77 | 803.8 | 797.889654207331 | 5.91034579266875 |
| 78 | 805.6 | 804.362480304937 | 1.23751969506338 |
| 79 | 804.6 | 804.293426133758 | 0.306573866241706 |
| 80 | 804.5 | 804.117468118063 | 0.38253188193687 |
| 81 | 805.8 | 808.076469869447 | -2.27646986944671 |
| 82 | 806.8 | 809.376770229757 | -2.57677022975668 |
| 83 | 805.2 | 806.862427975836 | -1.66242797583618 |
| 84 | 814.9 | 806.10597728766 | 8.79402271233937 |
| 85 | 816.6 | 816.469153470103 | 0.130846529896871 |
| 86 | 819.5 | 819.771397022999 | -0.271397022998826 |
| 87 | 823 | 822.128136386768 | 0.87186361323154 |
| 88 | 824 | 825.721895388378 | -1.72189538837767 |
| 89 | 831.4 | 825.731831791799 | 5.66816820820134 |
| 90 | 831.7 | 831.308792431808 | 0.391207568192272 |
| 91 | 831.1 | 830.38613556318 | 0.713864436820813 |
| 92 | 832.1 | 830.573722497607 | 1.52627750239321 |
| 93 | 833.3 | 835.116718085362 | -1.81671808536248 |
| 94 | 838.8 | 836.77026372229 | 2.02973627771064 |
| 95 | 838 | 838.322484216557 | -0.3224842165572 |
| 96 | 837.3 | 840.273642590616 | -2.97364259061635 |
| 97 | 994.2 | 839.334085104341 | 154.865914895659 |
| 98 | 994.2 | 974.38234963584 | 19.8176503641607 |
| 99 | 994.2 | 994.126096754754 | 0.0739032452460151 |
| 100 | 994.2 | 996.772309653661 | -2.57230965366114 |
| 101 | 994.2 | 997.275704199483 | -3.07570419948252 |
| 102 | 1092.6 | 994.736286828652 | 97.8637131713479 |
| 103 | 1100 | 1077.00000433284 | 22.9999956671645 |
| 104 | 1100 | 1096.46760955858 | 3.53239044142470 |
| 105 | 1092.6 | 1102.41227135412 | -9.81227135412018 |
| 106 | 1000.7 | 1098.01963907956 | -97.3196390795565 |
| 107 | 1000.7 | 1014.78259930551 | -14.0825993055078 |
| 108 | 1000.5 | 1004.73918258754 | -4.23918258753804 |
| 109 | 1000.5 | 1026.32978586146 | -25.8297858614569 |
| 110 | 1000.5 | 987.46916519302 | 13.0308348069794 |
| 111 | 1000.5 | 998.484467943944 | 2.01553205605614 |
| 112 | 1000.5 | 1002.37780252342 | -1.87780252342316 |
| 113 | 1000.5 | 1003.38628895331 | -2.88628895331226 |
| 114 | 1087.7 | 1016.02316223005 | 71.6768377699486 |
| 115 | 1113.2 | 1064.82560855981 | 48.3743914401898 |
| 116 | 1116 | 1102.98083626988 | 13.0191637301211 |
| 117 | 1085.2 | 1115.00830048850 | -29.8083004884954 |
| 118 | 1031.3 | 1080.55132194164 | -49.251321941643 |
| 119 | 1028.7 | 1050.63118855406 | -21.9311885540603 |
| 120 | 1027.5 | 1035.38096919761 | -7.88096919761483 |
| 121 | 1027.5 | 1050.66360399335 | -23.1636039933524 |
| 122 | 1027.5 | 1019.86461594267 | 7.63538405732743 |
| 123 | 1027.5 | 1024.65179725382 | 2.84820274617641 |
| 124 | 1027.5 | 1028.67874161845 | -1.17874161845452 |
| 125 | 1027.5 | 1030.13702338420 | -2.63702338420171 |
| 126 | 1152.2 | 1054.09075774105 | 98.109242258949 |
| 127 | 1155.3 | 1121.94452808830 | 33.3554719116967 |
| 128 | 1154 | 1142.06616028115 | 11.9338397188540 |
| 129 | 1119.9 | 1146.80639334363 | -26.9063933436250 |
| 130 | 1079.3 | 1111.93883866952 | -32.638838669523 |
| 131 | 1074.3 | 1100.24995018375 | -25.9499501837502 |
| 132 | 1069.8 | 1083.69289851987 | -13.8928985198734 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 1091.60172275452 | 1043.68974546214 | 1139.51370004690 |
| 134 | 1085.13643141071 | 1022.19896939723 | 1148.07389342419 |
| 135 | 1082.74064876656 | 1007.71215543054 | 1157.76914210258 |
| 136 | 1083.77047030927 | 998.330364773994 | 1169.21057584455 |
| 137 | 1086.04226951660 | 991.314572444378 | 1180.76996658881 |
| 138 | 1127.26683222121 | 1024.07162064847 | 1230.46204379395 |
| 139 | 1101.94098774343 | 990.910546270021 | 1212.97142921683 |
| 140 | 1090.42587692981 | 972.066845494074 | 1208.78490836554 |
| 141 | 1079.16128303771 | 953.891343066026 | 1204.43122300939 |
| 142 | 1066.29356380199 | 934.464683994943 | 1198.12244360903 |
| 143 | 1083.35423603938 | 945.268214308324 | 1221.44025777043 |
| 144 | 1090.66983370732 | 946.589136170892 | 1234.75053124375 |
