| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[28]) |
| 16 | 125.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 17 | 137.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | 134 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | 140.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 20 | 152.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 21 | 150.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 22 | 167.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 23 | 153.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 24 | 142 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 25 | 154.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 26 | 158.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 27 | 180.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 28 | 181.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 29 | 172.4 | 192.4368 | 175.8171 | 209.0565 | 0.0091 | 0.9055 | 1 | 0.9055 |
| 30 | 192 | 185.2191 | 157.4724 | 212.9658 | 0.316 | 0.8174 | 0.9999 | 0.609 |
| 31 | 199.3 | 197.0945 | 164.5015 | 229.6875 | 0.4472 | 0.6203 | 0.9997 | 0.8289 |
| 32 | 215.4 | 214.8096 | 180.4683 | 249.151 | 0.4866 | 0.812 | 0.9998 | 0.9721 |
| 33 | 214.3 | 215.955 | 180.3428 | 251.5672 | 0.4637 | 0.5122 | 0.9998 | 0.9718 |
| 34 | 201.5 | 235.7015 | 198.1745 | 273.2285 | 0.037 | 0.8682 | 0.9998 | 0.9978 |
| 35 | 190.5 | 213.6879 | 173.5883 | 253.7876 | 0.1285 | 0.7243 | 0.9984 | 0.9433 |
| 36 | 196 | 195.7979 | 153.2043 | 238.3914 | 0.4963 | 0.5963 | 0.9933 | 0.7477 |
| 37 | 215.7 | 211.8824 | 167.261 | 256.5038 | 0.4334 | 0.7573 | 0.9942 | 0.9104 |
| 38 | 209.4 | 218.0962 | 171.7606 | 264.4318 | 0.3565 | 0.5404 | 0.9941 | 0.9402 |
| 39 | 214.1 | 246.4577 | 198.4609 | 294.4545 | 0.0932 | 0.9349 | 0.9963 | 0.9961 |
| 40 | 237.8 | 245.8716 | 196.1543 | 295.5889 | 0.3752 | 0.8948 | 0.9945 | 0.9945 |
| 41 | 239 | 256.3253 | 193.9345 | 318.7161 | 0.2931 | 0.7197 | 0.9958 | 0.9908 |
| 42 | 237.8 | 247.4992 | 170.0609 | 324.9374 | 0.403 | 0.5852 | 0.9199 | 0.9531 |
| 43 | 251.5 | 262.0848 | 175.7558 | 348.4139 | 0.405 | 0.7093 | 0.923 | 0.9667 |
| 44 | 248.8 | 282.5905 | 191.5752 | 373.6059 | 0.2334 | 0.7484 | 0.926 | 0.9854 |
| 45 | 215.4 | 284.9405 | 190.0549 | 379.826 | 0.0754 | 0.7723 | 0.9277 | 0.9839 |
| 46 | 201.2 | 306.0928 | 206.4464 | 405.7391 | 0.0195 | 0.9628 | 0.9802 | 0.9929 |
| 47 | 203.1 | 280.3544 | 175.1191 | 385.5896 | 0.0751 | 0.9298 | 0.9529 | 0.9675 |
| 48 | 214.2 | 259.3302 | 148.6911 | 369.9693 | 0.212 | 0.8404 | 0.869 | 0.9166 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 29 | 0.0441 | -0.1041 | 0.0052 | 401.475 | 20.0738 | 4.4804 |
| 30 | 0.0764 | 0.0366 | 0.0018 | 45.981 | 2.299 | 1.5163 |
| 31 | 0.0844 | 0.0112 | 6e-04 | 4.8643 | 0.2432 | 0.4932 |
| 32 | 0.0816 | 0.0027 | 1e-04 | 0.3485 | 0.0174 | 0.132 |
| 33 | 0.0841 | -0.0077 | 4e-04 | 2.7391 | 0.137 | 0.3701 |
| 34 | 0.0812 | -0.1451 | 0.0073 | 1169.7408 | 58.487 | 7.6477 |
| 35 | 0.0957 | -0.1085 | 0.0054 | 537.6797 | 26.884 | 5.185 |
| 36 | 0.111 | 0.001 | 1e-04 | 0.0409 | 0.002 | 0.0452 |
| 37 | 0.1074 | 0.018 | 9e-04 | 14.5741 | 0.7287 | 0.8536 |
| 38 | 0.1084 | -0.0399 | 0.002 | 75.6246 | 3.7812 | 1.9445 |
| 39 | 0.0994 | -0.1313 | 0.0066 | 1047.0217 | 52.3511 | 7.2354 |
| 40 | 0.1032 | -0.0328 | 0.0016 | 65.1508 | 3.2575 | 1.8049 |
| 41 | 0.1242 | -0.0676 | 0.0034 | 300.1666 | 15.0083 | 3.8741 |
| 42 | 0.1596 | -0.0392 | 0.002 | 94.074 | 4.7037 | 2.1688 |
| 43 | 0.1681 | -0.0404 | 0.002 | 112.0389 | 5.6019 | 2.3668 |
| 44 | 0.1643 | -0.1196 | 0.006 | 1141.7999 | 57.09 | 7.5558 |
| 45 | 0.1699 | -0.2441 | 0.0122 | 4835.8801 | 241.794 | 15.5497 |
| 46 | 0.1661 | -0.3427 | 0.0171 | 11002.4923 | 550.1246 | 23.4547 |
| 47 | 0.1915 | -0.2756 | 0.0138 | 5968.2382 | 298.4119 | 17.2746 |
| 48 | 0.2177 | -0.174 | 0.0087 | 2036.7372 | 101.8369 | 10.0914 |
