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Q1 Case: the Seatbelt: lineaire trend

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:48:34 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Nov/24/t12275561493dr9zkxo12q0y2d.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:49:19 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Nov/24/t12275561493dr9zkxo12q0y2d.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
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Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
1687 0 1508 0 1507 0 1385 0 1632 0 1511 0 1559 0 1630 0 1579 0 1653 0 2152 0 2148 0 1752 0 1765 0 1717 0 1558 0 1575 0 1520 0 1805 0 1800 0 1719 0 2008 0 2242 0 2478 0 2030 0 1655 0 1693 0 1623 0 1805 0 1746 0 1795 0 1926 0 1619 0 1992 0 2233 0 2192 0 2080 0 1768 0 1835 0 1569 0 1976 0 1853 0 1965 0 1689 0 1778 0 1976 0 2397 0 2654 0 2097 0 1963 0 1677 0 1941 0 2003 0 1813 0 2012 0 1912 0 2084 0 2080 0 2118 0 2150 0 1608 0 1503 0 1548 0 1382 0 1731 0 1798 0 1779 0 1887 0 2004 0 2077 0 2092 0 2051 0 1577 0 1356 0 1652 0 1382 0 1519 0 1421 0 1442 0 1543 0 1656 0 1561 0 1905 0 2199 0 1473 0 1655 0 1407 0 1395 0 1530 0 1309 0 1526 0 1327 0 1627 0 1748 0 1958 0 2274 0 1648 0 1401 0 1411 0 1403 0 1394 0 1520 0 1528 0 1643 0 1515 0 1685 0 2000 0 2215 0 1956 0 1462 0 1563 0 1459 0 1446 0 1622 0 1657 0 1638 0 1643 0 1683 0 2050 0 2262 0 1813 0 1445 0 1762 0 1461 0 1556 0 1431 0 1427 0 1554 0 1645 0 1653 0 2016 0 2207 0 1665 0 1361 0 1506 0 1360 0 1453 0 1522 0 1460 0 1552 0 1548 0 1827 0 1737 0 1941 0 1474 0 1458 0 1542 0 1404 0 1522 0 1385 0 1641 0 1510 0 1681 0 1938 0 1868 0 1726 0 1456 0 1445 0 1456 0 1365 0 1487 0 1558 0 1488 0 1684 0 1594 0 1850 0 1998 0 2079 0 1494 0 1057 1 1218 1 1168 1 1236 1 1076 1 1174 1 1139 1 1427 1 1487 1 1483 1 1513 1 1357 1 1165 1 1282 1 1110 1 1297 1 1185 1 1222 1 1284 1 1444 1 1575 1 1737 1 1763 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
y[t] = + 1846.02995173261 -251.176611180784x[t] -1.50915849932545t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)1846.0299517326138.7814347.600900
x-251.17661118078467.520939-3.720.0002630.000131
t-1.509158499325450.395585-3.8150.0001849.2e-05


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.505523756005193
R-squared0.255554267885598
Adjusted R-squared0.247676535270630
F-TEST (value)32.4400789384575
F-TEST (DF numerator)2
F-TEST (DF denominator)189
p-value7.73159314348959e-13
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation251.198646170456
Sum Squared Residuals11926043.6093574


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
116871844.52079323326-157.520793233258
215081843.01163473395-335.011634733954
315071841.50247623463-334.502476234629
413851839.99331773530-454.993317735303
516321838.48415923598-206.484159235977
615111836.97500073665-325.975000736652
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915791832.44752523868-253.447525238675
1016531830.93836673935-177.93836673935
1121521829.42920824002322.570791759975
1221481827.9200497407320.079950259301
1317521826.41089124137-74.4108912413737
1417651824.90173274205-59.9017327420482
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1715751820.37425724407-245.374257244072
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2018001815.84678174610-15.8467817460955
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3117951799.24603825352-4.24603825351549
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14218271631.72944482839195.27055517161
14317371630.22028632906106.779713670935
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14514741627.20196933041-153.201969330414
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18611851314.14985967729-129.149859677286
18712221312.64070117796-90.6407011779603
18812841311.13154267863-27.1315426786349
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19217631305.09490868133457.905091318667
 
Charts produced by software:
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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 0 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 0 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
 





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