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Werkloosheid <25 jaar ~ effect generatiepact

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Sun, 23 Nov 2008 05:17:19 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Nov/23/t1227442961tp69vocosxibcot.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 23 Nov 2008 12:22:50 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Nov/23/t1227442961tp69vocosxibcot.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
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Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
21.1 0 21 0 20.4 0 19.5 0 18.6 0 18.8 0 23.7 0 24.8 0 25 0 23.6 0 22.3 0 21.8 0 20.8 0 19.7 0 18.3 0 17.4 0 17 0 18.1 0 23.9 0 25.6 0 25.3 0 23.6 0 21.9 0 21.4 0 20.6 0 20.5 0 20.2 0 20.6 0 19.7 0 19.3 0 22.8 0 23.5 0 23.8 0 22.6 0 22 0 21.7 0 20.7 1 20.2 1 19.1 1 19.5 1 18.7 1 18.6 1 22.2 1 23.2 1 23.5 1 21.3 1 20 1 18.7 1 18.9 1 18.3 1 18.4 1 19.9 1 19.2 1 18.5 1 20.9 1 20.5 1 19.4 1 18.1 1 17 1 17 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Werkloosheid<25jr[t] = + 21.6955555555555 -0.663888888888897Generatiepact[t] -0.100277777777804M1[t] -0.543888888888886M2[t] -1.16750000000000M3[t] -1.03111111111111M4[t] -1.73472222222222M5[t] -1.67833333333333M6[t] + 2.39805555555556M7[t] + 3.25444444444445M8[t] + 3.17083333333334M9[t] + 1.64722222222222M10[t] + 0.483611111111110M11[t] -0.0363888888888885t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)21.69555555555550.74809229.001200
Generatiepact-0.6638888888888970.671806-0.98820.3282170.164109
M1-0.1002777777778040.833915-0.12020.9048090.452405
M2-0.5438888888888860.829166-0.65590.5151260.257563
M3-1.167500000000000.824846-1.41540.1636820.081841
M4-1.031111111111110.820961-1.2560.2154650.107732
M5-1.734722222222220.817518-2.12190.039260.01963
M6-1.678333333333330.814522-2.06050.0450310.022515
M72.398055555555560.8119782.95330.0049380.002469
M83.254444444444450.8098914.01840.0002150.000108
M93.170833333333340.8082643.9230.000290.000145
M101.647222222222220.80712.04090.0470220.023511
M110.4836111111111100.8064010.59970.5516390.275819
t-0.03638888888888850.019393-1.87640.0669590.03348


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.863258118963442
R-squared0.7452145799563
Adjusted R-squared0.673210004726559
F-TEST (value)10.3495448390409
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value1.03778219351369e-09
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation1.27466297525389
Sum Squared Residuals74.7392222222224


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
121.121.558888888889-0.458888888889002
22121.0788888888889-0.0788888888888846
320.420.4188888888889-0.0188888888888837
419.520.5188888888889-1.01888888888888
518.619.7788888888889-1.17888888888888
618.819.7988888888889-0.99888888888888
723.723.8388888888889-0.138888888888885
824.824.65888888888890.141111111111125
92524.53888888888890.461111111111118
1023.622.97888888888890.621111111111117
1122.321.77888888888890.521111111111116
1221.821.25888888888890.541111111111117
1320.821.1222222222222-0.32222222222219
1419.720.6422222222222-0.94222222222222
1518.319.9822222222222-1.68222222222222
1617.420.0822222222222-2.68222222222222
171719.3422222222222-2.34222222222222
1818.119.3622222222222-1.26222222222222
1923.923.40222222222220.49777777777778
2025.624.22222222222221.37777777777778
2125.324.10222222222221.19777777777778
2223.622.54222222222221.05777777777778
2321.921.34222222222220.557777777777779
2421.420.82222222222220.577777777777778
2520.620.6855555555555-0.0855555555555277
2620.520.20555555555560.294444444444442
2720.219.54555555555560.65444444444444
2820.619.64555555555560.954444444444443
2919.718.90555555555560.79444444444444
3019.318.92555555555560.374444444444441
3122.822.9655555555556-0.165555555555557
3223.523.7855555555556-0.285555555555561
3323.823.66555555555560.134444444444442
3422.622.10555555555560.494444444444442
352220.90555555555561.09444444444444
3621.720.38555555555561.31444444444444
3720.719.58500000000001.11500000000003
3820.219.1051.095
3919.118.4450.655000000000002
4019.518.5450.955000000000001
4118.717.8050.895
4218.617.8250.775
4322.221.8650.335000000000001
4423.222.6850.514999999999998
4523.522.5650.935
4621.321.0050.295
472019.8050.195000000000001
4818.719.285-0.585
4918.919.1483333333333-0.248333333333309
5018.318.6683333333333-0.368333333333336
5118.418.00833333333330.391666666666661
5219.918.10833333333331.79166666666666
5319.217.36833333333331.83166666666666
5418.517.38833333333331.11166666666666
5520.921.4283333333333-0.528333333333338
5620.522.2483333333333-1.74833333333334
5719.422.1283333333333-2.72833333333334
5818.120.5683333333333-2.46833333333334
591719.3683333333333-2.36833333333334
601718.8483333333333-1.84833333333334


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.2150618823144590.4301237646289180.784938117685541
180.2172860527521970.4345721055043930.782713947247803
190.3017520197254940.6035040394509880.698247980274506
200.4346233897939400.8692467795878790.56537661020606
210.3926629198059900.7853258396119810.60733708019401
220.308363327372320.616726654744640.69163667262768
230.2176450637559170.4352901275118340.782354936244083
240.1468237452216280.2936474904432550.853176254778372
250.1119612806469390.2239225612938770.888038719353061
260.0964846747426110.1929693494852220.903515325257389
270.1173839576419680.2347679152839350.882616042358032
280.298366200262920.596732400525840.70163379973708
290.4039479117532130.8078958235064270.596052088246787
300.4131136637424820.8262273274849630.586886336257518
310.4332611861434290.8665223722868580.566738813856571
320.4972555409898180.9945110819796350.502744459010182
330.4745263681691310.9490527363382620.525473631830869
340.4058647888525510.8117295777051020.594135211147449
350.3097137730594330.6194275461188650.690286226940567
360.2236686045989410.4473372091978810.77633139540106
370.1508748009427570.3017496018855140.849125199057243
380.0956043783509940.1912087567019880.904395621649006
390.06435239196142310.1287047839228460.935647608038577
400.0864953498827210.1729906997654420.913504650117279
410.192532030133020.385064060266040.80746796986698
420.4227803057418110.8455606114836220.577219694258189
430.5280981385055160.9438037229889680.471901861494484


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level00OK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Nov/23/t1227442961tp69vocosxibcot/8bwip1227442634.ps (open in new window)


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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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