Home » date » 2008 » Dec » 15 »

Investeringsgoederen met seizoenale en lineaire trend

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 00:56:29 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/15/t12293278491mf3o8qzt5j7f70.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:57:29 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/15/t12293278491mf3o8qzt5j7f70.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
97.7 0 101.5 0 119.6 0 108.1 0 117.8 0 125.5 0 89.2 0 92.3 0 104.6 0 122.8 0 96.0 0 94.6 0 93.3 0 101.1 0 114.2 0 104.7 0 113.3 0 118.2 0 83.6 0 73.9 0 99.5 0 97.7 0 103.0 0 106.3 0 92.2 0 101.8 0 122.8 0 111.8 0 106.3 0 121.5 0 81.9 0 85.4 0 110.9 0 117.3 0 106.3 0 105.5 0 101.3 0 105.9 0 126.3 0 111.9 0 108.9 0 127.2 0 94.2 0 85.7 0 116.2 0 107.2 0 110.6 0 112.0 0 104.5 0 112.0 0 132.8 0 110.8 0 128.7 0 136.8 0 94.9 0 88.8 0 123.2 0 125.3 0 122.7 0 125.7 0 116.3 0 118.7 0 142.0 0 127.9 0 131.9 0 152.3 0 110.8 1 99.1 1 135.0 1 133.2 1 131.0 1 133.9 1 119.9 1 136.9 1 148.9 1 145.1 1 142.4 1 159.6 1 120.7 1 109.0 1 142.0 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time7 seconds
R Server'Herman Ole Andreas Wold' @ 193.190.124.10:1001


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 97.0556224899598 + 11.2265060240964X[t] -7.45731019315358M1[t] -0.263817173455731M2[t] + 17.7868187033850M3[t] + 5.12316886593995M4[t] + 8.9309475999235M5[t] + 21.7101549053356M6[t] -18.2001386498374M7[t] -24.4066456301396M8[t] + 3.42970453241538M9[t] + 4.92015681774718M10[t] -1.06492159112641M11[t] + 0.33507840887359t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)97.05562248995982.90247733.438900
X11.22650602409642.4163814.6461.6e-058e-06
M1-7.457310193153583.442468-2.16630.0338520.016926
M2-0.2638171734557313.440839-0.07670.9391130.469556
M317.78681870338503.4396715.17112e-061e-06
M45.123168865939953.4389641.48970.1409850.070492
M58.93094759992353.438722.59720.0115440.005772
M621.71015490533563.4389376.31300
M7-18.20013864983743.448464-5.27782e-061e-06
M8-24.40664563013963.446921-7.080700
M93.429704532415383.4458380.99530.3231630.161581
M104.920156817747183.5691441.37850.1726270.086313
M11-1.064921591126413.568476-0.29840.7663030.383151
t0.335078408873590.0398558.407400


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.946900247831163
R-squared0.896620079342718
Adjusted R-squared0.876561288767425
F-TEST (value)44.6996081831119
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)67
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation6.18039698072037
Sum Squared Residuals2559.21955823293


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
197.789.933390705687.76660929432008
2101.597.46196213425134.0380378657487
3119.6115.8476764199663.75232358003443
4108.1103.5191049913944.58089500860585
5117.8107.66196213425110.1380378657487
6125.5120.7762478485374.723752151463
789.281.20103270223757.99896729776249
892.375.32960413080916.9703958691910
9104.6103.5010327022381.09896729776248
10122.8105.32656339644317.4734366035571
119699.676563396443-3.67656339644291
1294.6101.076563396443-6.47656339644292
1393.393.954331612163-0.654331612162926
14101.1101.482903040734-0.382903040734366
15114.2119.868617326449-5.66861732644865
16104.7107.540045897877-2.84004589787722
17113.3111.6829030407341.61709695926564
18118.2124.79718875502-6.59718875502008
1983.685.2219736087206-1.6219736087206
2073.979.350545037292-5.45054503729202
2199.5107.521973608721-8.0219736087206
2297.7109.347504302926-11.6475043029260
23103103.697504302926-0.697504302925987
24106.3105.0975043029261.20249569707401
2592.297.975272518646-5.77527251864599
26101.8105.503843947217-3.70384394721744
27122.8123.889558232932-1.08955823293173
28111.8111.5609868043600.239013195639701
29106.3115.703843947217-9.40384394721744
30121.5128.818129661503-7.31812966150316
3181.989.2429145152037-7.34291451520367
3285.483.37148594377512.02851405622491
33110.9111.542914515204-0.642914515203668
34117.3113.3684452094093.93155479059093
35106.3107.718445209409-1.41844520940907
36105.5109.118445209409-3.61844520940907
37101.3101.996213425129-0.69621342512908
38105.9109.524784853701-3.62478485370051
39126.3127.910499139415-1.61049913941481
40111.9115.581927710843-3.68192771084337
41108.9119.724784853701-10.8247848537005
42127.2132.839070567986-5.63907056798623
4394.293.26385542168680.93614457831325
4485.787.3924268502582-1.69242685025817
45116.2115.5638554216870.63614457831325
46107.2117.389386115892-10.1893861158921
47110.6111.739386115892-1.13938611589215
48112113.139386115892-1.13938611589215
49104.5106.017154331612-1.51715433161216
50112113.545725760184-1.54572576018359
51132.8131.9314400458980.868559954102129
52110.8119.602868617326-8.80286861732645
53128.7123.7457257601844.9542742398164
54136.8136.860011474469-0.0600114744692986
5594.997.2847963281698-2.38479632816982
5688.891.4133677567413-2.61336775674126
57123.2119.5847963281703.61520367183018
58125.3121.4103270223753.88967297762478
59122.7115.7603270223756.93967297762479
60125.7117.1603270223758.53967297762478
61116.3110.0380952380956.26190476190476
62118.7117.5666666666671.13333333333333
63142135.9523809523816.04761904761904
64127.9123.6238095238104.27619047619048
65131.9127.7666666666674.13333333333334
66152.3140.88095238095211.4190476190476
67110.8112.532243258749-1.73224325874929
6899.1106.660814687321-7.56081468732072
69135134.8322432587490.167756741250717
70133.2136.657773952955-3.45777395295468
71131131.007773952955-0.00777395295467315
72133.9132.4077739529551.49222604704533
73119.9125.285542168675-5.38554216867468
74136.9132.8141135972464.08588640275388
75148.9151.199827882960-2.29982788296041
76145.1138.8712564543896.22874354561101
77142.4143.014113597246-0.614113597246122
78159.6156.1283993115323.47160068846815
79120.7116.5531841652324.14681583476764
80109110.681755593804-1.68175559380379
81142138.8531841652323.14681583476764


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.06795006613307880.1359001322661580.932049933866921
180.05626816164825780.1125363232965160.943731838351742
190.02447000811056580.04894001622113160.975529991889434
200.5287563007291820.9424873985416370.471243699270818
210.4134593140691420.8269186281382850.586540685930858
220.9089994989050260.1820010021899480.091000501094974
230.9654199219389530.0691601561220940.034580078061047
240.9932042436720180.01359151265596420.00679575632798209
250.9888552946787060.02228941064258710.0111447053212936
260.9863385521186660.02732289576266810.0136614478813340
270.9906762100200910.01864757995981740.00932378997990872
280.993737126317150.01252574736570070.00626287368285033
290.9914384721785450.01712305564291000.00856152782145499
300.9866578966857590.02668420662848240.0133421033142412
310.979082350002680.04183529999464060.0209176499973203
320.988372800287990.02325439942402160.0116271997120108
330.9914300617515680.01713987649686360.00856993824843178
340.9985510035436060.002897992912787000.00144899645639350
350.998349293576190.003301412847619350.00165070642380967
360.997412286124070.005175427751859840.00258771387592992
370.998030556647310.003938886705380760.00196944335269038
380.996976822169050.006046355661901910.00302317783095095
390.9968190645372130.006361870925574070.00318093546278704
400.9956746854932460.008650629013507780.00432531450675389
410.995372194058620.009255611882759570.00462780594137979
420.9932523955026170.01349520899476610.00674760449738305
430.993981105919060.01203778816188160.00601889408094081
440.995654127332380.008691745335238250.00434587266761912
450.99600834655230.007983306895401640.00399165344770082
460.9967414752612970.006517049477405710.00325852473870286
470.9948060981344250.01038780373114930.00519390186557465
480.9925394076291730.01492118474165440.00746059237082718
490.988377461456440.02324507708712040.0116225385435602
500.981255605838880.03748878832223880.0187443941611194
510.9769725965323170.04605480693536540.0230274034676827
520.9927621832933770.01447563341324670.00723781670662334
530.9969841468885070.006031706222985420.00301585311149271
540.9959465553791890.008106889241622060.00405344462081103
550.9966204073838570.006759185232285190.00337959261614260
560.9925441261136880.01491174777262470.00745587388631234
570.9867920930320.02641581393600070.0132079069680004
580.976696553037880.04660689392423890.0233034469621195
590.9633393059307450.07332138813851010.0366606940692551
600.9453162702010780.1093674595978450.0546837297989225
610.9605502751009440.07889944979811140.0394497248990557
620.9696076599614710.06078468007705780.0303923400385289
630.9530221179646590.09395576407068250.0469778820353412
640.9881613341768190.02367733164636230.0118386658231812


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level140.291666666666667NOK
5% type I error level370.770833333333333NOK
10% type I error level420.875NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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