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ARIMA Forecast

*The author of this computation has been verified*

R Software Module: rwasp_arimaforecasting.wasp (opens new window with default values)

Title produced by software: ARIMA Forecasting

Date of computation: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 05:33:11 -0700

Cite this page as follows:

Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/13/t1229171662dx3q94hct5zdze8.htm/, Retrieved Sat, 13 Dec 2008 13:34:24 +0100

BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:

@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/13/t1229171662dx3q94hct5zdze8.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}

Original text written by user:

IsPrivate?

No (this computation is public)

User-defined keywords:

Dataseries X:

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13363 12530 11420 10948 10173 10602 16094 19631 17140 14345 12632 12894 11808 10673 9939 9890 9283 10131 15864 19283 16203 13919 11937 11795 11268 10522 9929 9725 9372 10068 16230 19115 18351 16265 14103 14115 13327 12618 12129 11775 11493 12470 20792 22337 21325 18581 16475 16581 15745 14453 13712 13766 13336 15346 24446 26178 24628 21282 18850 18822 18060 17536 16417 15842 15188 16905 25430 27962 26607 23364 20827 20506 19181 18016 17354 16256 15770 17538 26899 28915 25247 22856 19980 19856 16994 16839 15618 15883 15513 17106 25272 26731 22891 19583 16939 16757 15435 14786 13680 13208 12707 14277 22436 23229 18241 16145 13994 14780 13100 12329 12463 11532 10784 13106 19491 20418 16094 14491

Output produced by software:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Input	view raw input (R code)
Raw Output	view raw output of R engine
Computing time	1 seconds
R Server	'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[106])
94	19583	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
95	16939	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
96	16757	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
97	15435	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
98	14786	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
99	13680	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
100	13208	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
101	12707	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
102	14277	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
103	22436	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
104	23229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	18241	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
106	16145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
107	13994	13707.4338	12665.1533	14790.9226	0.3021	0	0	0
108	14780	13552.7433	12198.7394	14977.9895	0.0457	0.272	0	2e-04
109	13100	12165.1651	10646.0632	13785.5432	0.1291	8e-04	0	0
110	12329	11654.2075	9970.3968	13469.3283	0.2331	0.0592	4e-04	0
111	12463	10689.4236	8912.8534	12627.3377	0.0364	0.0486	0.0012	0
112	11532	10367.4545	8471.1085	12455.1783	0.1371	0.0246	0.0038	0
113	10784	9951.903	7963.3383	12161.8794	0.2303	0.0806	0.0073	0
114	13106	11327.8551	9066.8061	13840.3498	0.0827	0.6643	0.0107	1e-04
115	19491	18605.6912	15510.0375	21982.8245	0.3037	0.9993	0.0131	0.9234
116	20418	19480.8173	16152.7439	23120.4042	0.3069	0.4978	0.0218	0.9638
117	16094	15272.745	12213.5449	18673.4923	0.318	0.0015	0.0436	0.3076
118	14491	13216.5091	10268.2906	16536.3088	0.2259	0.0447	0.0419	0.0419

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
107	0.0403	0.0209	0.0017	82120.2083	6843.3507	82.7245
108	0.0537	0.0906	0.0075	1506159.0331	125513.2528	354.2785
109	0.068	0.0768	0.0064	873916.2518	72826.3543	269.8636
110	0.0795	0.0579	0.0048	455344.9032	37945.4086	194.7958
111	0.0925	0.1659	0.0138	3145573.3279	262131.1107	511.9874
112	0.1027	0.1123	0.0094	1356166.3346	113013.8612	336.1753
113	0.1133	0.0836	0.007	692385.4463	57698.7872	240.2057
114	0.1132	0.157	0.0131	3161799.2534	263483.2711	513.3062
115	0.0926	0.0476	0.004	783771.6635	65314.3053	255.5666
116	0.0953	0.0481	0.004	878311.4227	73192.6186	270.5413
117	0.1136	0.0538	0.0045	674459.8571	56204.9881	237.0759
118	0.1282	0.0964	0.008	1624327.0536	135360.5878	367.9138

Charts produced by software:

http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/13/t1229171662dx3q94hct5zdze8/1c49e1229171589.png (open in new window)

http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/13/t1229171662dx3q94hct5zdze8/1c49e1229171589.ps (open in new window)

http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/13/t1229171662dx3q94hct5zdze8/2hewl1229171589.png (open in new window)

http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/13/t1229171662dx3q94hct5zdze8/2hewl1229171589.ps (open in new window)

Parameters (Session):

par1 = 12 ; par2 = 0.5 ; par3 = 1 ; par4 = 1 ; par5 = 12 ; par6 = 0 ; par7 = 1 ; par8 = 0 ; par9 = 1 ; par10 = FALSE ;

Parameters (R input):

par1 = 12 ; par2 = 0.5 ; par3 = 1 ; par4 = 1 ; par5 = 12 ; par6 = 0 ; par7 = 1 ; par8 = 0 ; par9 = 1 ; par10 = FALSE ;

R code (references can be found in the software module):

par1 <- as.numeric(par1) #cut off periods

par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #lambda

par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing

par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing

par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period

par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #p

par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #q

par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #P

par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #Q

if (par10 == 'TRUE') par10 <- TRUE

if (par10 == 'FALSE') par10 <- FALSE

if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x)

if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2

lx <- length(x)

first <- lx - 2*par1

nx <- lx - par1

nx1 <- nx + 1

fx <- lx - nx

if (fx < 1) {

fx <- par5

nx1 <- lx + fx - 1

first <- lx - 2*fx

}

first <- 1

if (fx < 3) fx <- round(lx/10,0)

(arima.out <- arima(x[1:nx], order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5), include.mean=par10, method='ML'))

(forecast <- predict(arima.out,fx))

(lb <- forecast$pred - 1.96 * forecast$se)

(ub <- forecast$pred + 1.96 * forecast$se)

if (par2 == 0) {

x <- exp(x)

forecast$pred <- exp(forecast$pred)

lb <- exp(lb)

ub <- exp(ub)

}

if (par2 != 0) {

x <- x^(1/par2)

forecast$pred <- forecast$pred^(1/par2)

lb <- lb^(1/par2)

ub <- ub^(1/par2)

}

if (par2 < 0) {

olb <- lb

lb <- ub

ub <- olb

}

(actandfor <- c(x[1:nx], forecast$pred))

(perc.se <- (ub-forecast$pred)/1.96/forecast$pred)

bitmap(file='test1.png')

opar <- par(mar=c(4,4,2,2),las=1)

ylim <- c( min(x[first:nx],lb), max(x[first:nx],ub))

plot(x,ylim=ylim,type='n',xlim=c(first,lx))

usr <- par('usr')

rect(usr[1],usr[3],nx+1,usr[4],border=NA,col='lemonchiffon')

rect(nx1,usr[3],usr[2],usr[4],border=NA,col='lavender')

abline(h= (-3:3)*2 , col ='gray', lty =3)

polygon( c(nx1:lx,lx:nx1), c(lb,rev(ub)), col = 'orange', lty=2,border=NA)

lines(nx1:lx, lb , lty=2)

lines(nx1:lx, ub , lty=2)

lines(x, lwd=2)

lines(nx1:lx, forecast$pred , lwd=2 , col ='white')

box()

par(opar)

dev.off()

prob.dec <- array(NA, dim=fx)

prob.sdec <- array(NA, dim=fx)

prob.ldec <- array(NA, dim=fx)

prob.pval <- array(NA, dim=fx)

perf.pe <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.mape <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.se <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.mse <- array(0, dim=fx)

perf.rmse <- array(0, dim=fx)

for (i in 1:fx) {

locSD <- (ub[i] - forecast$pred[i]) / 1.96

perf.pe[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / forecast$pred[i]

perf.mape[i] = perf.mape[i] + abs(perf.pe[i])

perf.se[i] = (x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i])^2

perf.mse[i] = perf.mse[i] + perf.se[i]

prob.dec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-1] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

prob.sdec[i] = pnorm((x[nx+i-par5] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

prob.ldec[i] = pnorm((x[nx] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

prob.pval[i] = pnorm(abs(x[nx+i] - forecast$pred[i]) / locSD)

}

perf.mape = perf.mape / fx

perf.mse = perf.mse / fx

perf.rmse = sqrt(perf.mse)

bitmap(file='test2.png')

plot(forecast$pred, pch=19, type='b',main='ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast', ylab='Forecast and 95% CI', xlab='time',ylim=c(min(lb),max(ub)))

dum <- forecast$pred

dum[1:12] <- x[(nx+1):lx]

lines(dum, lty=1)

lines(ub,lty=3)

lines(lb,lty=3)

dev.off()

load(file='createtable')

a<-table.start()

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast',9,TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Y[t]',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'F[t]',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'95% LB',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'95% UB',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'p-value<br />(H0: Y[t] = F[t])',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-1])',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'P(F[t]>Y[t-s])',1,header=TRUE)

mylab <- paste('P(F[t]>Y[',nx,sep='')

mylab <- paste(mylab,'])',sep='')

a<-table.element(a,mylab,1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

for (i in (nx-par5):nx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,x[i])

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.element(a,'-')

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

for (i in 1:fx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,round(x[nx+i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(forecast$pred[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(lb[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(ub[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.pval[i]),4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.dec[i]),4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.sdec[i]),4))

a<-table.element(a,round((1-prob.ldec[i]),4))

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

a<-table.end(a)

table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')

a<-table.start()

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance',7,TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'time',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'% S.E.',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'PE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'MAPE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Sq.E',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'MSE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'RMSE',1,header=TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

for (i in 1:fx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,round(perc.se[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.pe[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mape[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.se[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.mse[i],4))

a<-table.element(a,round(perf.rmse[i],4))

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

a<-table.end(a)

table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa

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