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Multiple lineair regression

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Sun, 07 Dec 2008 08:26:14 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228663655md5ybse96v886gy.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 07 Dec 2008 15:27:45 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228663655md5ybse96v886gy.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
Feedback Forum:
2008-11-27 13:41:43 [a2386b643d711541400692649981f2dc] [reply
test

Post a new message
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
15107 0 15024 0 12083 0 15761 0 16943 0 15070 0 13660 0 14769 0 14725 0 15998 0 15371 0 14957 0 15470 0 15102 0 11704 0 16284 0 16727 0 14969 0 14861 0 14583 0 15306 0 17904 0 16379 0 15420 0 17871 0 15913 0 13867 0 17823 0 17872 0 17422 0 16705 0 15991 0 16584 0 19124 0 17839 0 17209 0 18587 0 16258 0 15142 0 19202 0 17747 0 19090 0 18040 0 17516 0 17752 0 21073 0 17170 0 19440 0 19795 0 17575 0 16165 0 19465 1 19932 1 19961 1 17343 1 18924 1 18574 1 21351 1 18595 1 19823 1 20844 1 19640 1 17735 1 19814 1 22239 1 20682 1 17819 1 21872 1 22117 1 21866 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
y[t] = + 14007.0238848242 + 38.1340571158834D[t] + 1043.13076075839M1[t] -410.401164345842M2[t] -2639.59975611675M3[t] + 869.679309259697M4[t] + 1294.98071748879M5[t] + 490.782125717882M6[t] -1063.41646605303M7[t] -285.448391157266M8[t] -144.813649594839M9[t] + 1804.98775863425M10[t] -205.801408229093M11[t] + 93.1985917709071t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)14007.0238848242404.73442734.607900
D38.1340571158834330.0977040.11550.9084430.454222
M11043.13076075839466.7348482.2350.0294270.014714
M2-410.401164345842466.363474-0.880.3826190.191309
M3-2639.59975611675466.103655-5.66311e-060
M4869.679309259697469.2088171.85350.0690810.034541
M51294.98071748879468.518982.7640.0077150.003857
M6490.782125717882467.9395371.04880.2987690.149384
M7-1063.41646605303467.470901-2.27480.0267660.013383
M8-285.448391157266467.113404-0.61110.5436130.271806
M9-144.813649594839466.867301-0.31020.7575740.378787
M101804.98775863425466.732773.86730.0002890.000145
M11-205.801408229093486.63376-0.42290.6739820.336991
t93.19859177090717.21997812.908400


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.955996621165197
R-squared0.913929539679274
Adjusted R-squared0.89394889710482
F-TEST (value)45.7407481402904
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)56
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation769.350843574968
Sum Squared Residuals33146440.3485328


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
11510715143.3532373535-36.3532373534897
21502413783.01990402011240.98009597986
31208311647.0199040201435.980095979866
41576115249.4975611675511.50243883251
51694315767.99756116751175.00243883251
61507015056.997561167513.0024388325070
71366013595.997561167564.0024388325062
81476914467.1642278342301.835772165840
91472514700.997561167524.0024388325080
101599816743.9975611675-745.997561167492
111537114826.4069860751544.593013924947
121495715125.4069860751-168.406986075054
131547016261.7363386044-791.736338604356
141510214901.4030052710200.596994728978
151170412765.4030052710-1061.40300527103
161628416367.8806624184-83.8806624183785
171672716886.3806624184-159.380662418378
181496916175.3806624184-1206.38066241838
191486114714.3806624184146.619337581622
201458315585.5473290850-1002.54732908504
211530615819.3806624184-513.380662418378
221790417862.380662418441.6193375816217
231637915944.7900873259434.209912674062
241542016243.7900873259-823.790087325937
251787117380.1194398552490.88056014476
261591316019.7861065219-106.786106521911
271386713883.7861065219-16.7861065219117
281782317486.2637636693336.736236330737
291787218004.7637636693-132.763763669263
301742217293.7637636693128.236236330737
311670515832.7637636693872.236236330737
321599116703.9304303359-712.930430335929
331658416937.7637636693-353.763763669263
341912418980.7637636693143.236236330737
351783917063.1731885768775.826811423177
361720917362.1731885768-153.173188576822
371858718498.502541106188.4974588938752
381625817138.1692077728-880.169207772796
391514215002.1692077728139.830792227203
401920218604.6468649201597.353135079851
411774719123.1468649201-1376.14686492015
421909018412.1468649201677.853135079853
431804016951.14686492011088.85313507985
441751617822.3135315868-306.313531586814
451775218056.1468649201-304.146864920148
462107320099.1468649201973.85313507985
471717018181.5562898277-1011.55628982771
481944018480.5562898277959.443710172292
491979519616.885642357178.11435764299
501757518256.5523090237-681.552309023682
511616516120.552309023744.4476909763180
521946519761.1640232869-296.164023286917
531993220279.6640232869-347.664023286917
541996119568.6640232869392.335976713083
551734318107.6640232869-764.664023286917
561892418978.8306899536-54.8306899535836
571857419212.6640232869-638.664023286917
582135121255.664023286995.3359767130826
591859519338.0734481945-743.073448194477
601982319637.0734481945185.926551805523
612084420773.402800723870.5971992762211
621964019413.0694673905226.930532609549
631773517277.0694673905457.930532609549
641981420879.5471245378-1065.54712453780
652223921398.0471245378840.952875462197
662068220687.0471245378-5.04712453780199
671781919226.0471245378-1407.04712453780
682187220097.21379120451774.78620879553
692211720331.04712453781785.95287546220
702186622374.0471245378-508.047124537802


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.07241588645314860.1448317729062970.927584113546851
180.02638609509382420.05277219018764840.973613904906176
190.07840511641605360.1568102328321070.921594883583946
200.04482528432190210.08965056864380420.955174715678098
210.02469091015306130.04938182030612260.97530908984694
220.1142153744283500.2284307488567010.88578462557165
230.08775035182404980.1755007036481000.91224964817595
240.05581678132129440.1116335626425890.944183218678706
250.1959672341345610.3919344682691230.804032765865439
260.1370767205785780.2741534411571550.862923279421422
270.1272514075754350.254502815150870.872748592424565
280.1036911391719220.2073822783438450.896308860828078
290.06801296703289270.1360259340657850.931987032967107
300.07621157999247370.1524231599849470.923788420007526
310.1051331262087880.2102662524175770.894866873791212
320.07971732242349820.1594346448469960.920282677576502
330.05336998195760040.1067399639152010.9466300180424
340.04121005711773060.08242011423546110.95878994288227
350.05289266472816190.1057853294563240.947107335271838
360.03802163676295620.07604327352591250.961978363237044
370.02460312685983640.04920625371967280.975396873140164
380.02798727812906330.05597455625812660.972012721870937
390.01921205504296000.03842411008591990.98078794495704
400.0194293757174990.0388587514349980.9805706242825
410.05180359516840440.1036071903368090.948196404831596
420.05506666356794390.1101333271358880.944933336432056
430.1739175745551370.3478351491102740.826082425444863
440.1546194068082780.3092388136165560.845380593191722
450.1270903065180220.2541806130360440.872909693481978
460.1994514046577380.3989028093154760.800548595342262
470.1960287747128440.3920575494256880.803971225287156
480.2187066435642310.4374132871284610.78129335643577
490.1617644297699340.3235288595398690.838235570230065
500.1121255383906290.2242510767812570.887874461609371
510.063921573931170.127843147862340.93607842606883
520.05848926026639250.1169785205327850.941510739733608
530.03116866288470240.06233732576940490.968831337115298


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level40.108108108108108NOK
10% type I error level100.270270270270270NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228663655md5ybse96v886gy/8fzk01228663569.ps (open in new window)


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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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