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paper: multiple regression

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Sun, 07 Dec 2008 08:13:05 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 07 Dec 2008 15:13:53 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
Feedback Forum:
2008-11-27 13:41:43 [a2386b643d711541400692649981f2dc] [reply
test

Post a new message
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
15107 0 15024 0 12083 0 15761 0 16943 0 15070 0 13660 0 14769 0 14725 0 15998 0 15371 0 14957 0 15470 0 15102 0 11704 0 16284 0 16727 0 14969 0 14861 0 14583 0 15306 0 17904 0 16379 0 15420 0 17871 0 15913 0 13867 0 17823 0 17872 0 17422 0 16705 0 15991 0 16584 0 19124 0 17839 0 17209 0 18587 0 16258 0 15142 0 19202 0 17747 0 19090 0 18040 0 17516 0 17752 0 21073 0 17170 0 19440 0 19795 0 17575 0 16165 0 19465 1 19932 1 19961 1 17343 1 18924 1 18574 1 21351 1 18595 1 19823 1 20844 1 19640 1 17735 1 19814 1 22239 1 20682 1 17819 1 21872 1 22117 1 21866 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time7 seconds
R Server'Herman Ole Andreas Wold' @ 193.190.124.10:1001


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
y[t] = + 16449.9803921569 + 3476.12487100103D[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)16449.9803921569250.62713365.635300
D3476.12487100103481.0611737.22600


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.659047705744802
R-squared0.434343878447487
Adjusted R-squared0.426025406071714
F-TEST (value)52.2143800961008
F-TEST (DF numerator)1
F-TEST (DF denominator)68
p-value5.54896795179616e-10
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation1789.83573338394
Sum Squared Residuals217838812.769866


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
11510716449.9803921569-1342.98039215688
21502416449.9803921569-1425.98039215687
31208316449.9803921569-4366.98039215686
41576116449.9803921569-688.980392156862
51694316449.9803921569493.019607843138
61507016449.9803921569-1379.98039215686
71366016449.9803921569-2789.98039215686
81476916449.9803921569-1680.98039215686
91472516449.9803921569-1724.98039215686
101599816449.9803921569-451.980392156862
111537116449.9803921569-1078.98039215686
121495716449.9803921569-1492.98039215686
131547016449.9803921569-979.980392156862
141510216449.9803921569-1347.98039215686
151170416449.9803921569-4745.98039215686
161628416449.9803921569-165.980392156862
171672716449.9803921569277.019607843138
181496916449.9803921569-1480.98039215686
191486116449.9803921569-1588.98039215686
201458316449.9803921569-1866.98039215686
211530616449.9803921569-1143.98039215686
221790416449.98039215691454.01960784314
231637916449.9803921569-70.9803921568624
241542016449.9803921569-1029.98039215686
251787116449.98039215691421.01960784314
261591316449.9803921569-536.980392156862
271386716449.9803921569-2582.98039215686
281782316449.98039215691373.01960784314
291787216449.98039215691422.01960784314
301742216449.9803921569972.019607843138
311670516449.9803921569255.019607843138
321599116449.9803921569-458.980392156862
331658416449.9803921569134.019607843138
341912416449.98039215692674.01960784314
351783916449.98039215691389.01960784314
361720916449.9803921569759.019607843138
371858716449.98039215692137.01960784314
381625816449.9803921569-191.980392156862
391514216449.9803921569-1307.98039215686
401920216449.98039215692752.01960784314
411774716449.98039215691297.01960784314
421909016449.98039215692640.01960784314
431804016449.98039215691590.01960784314
441751616449.98039215691066.01960784314
451775216449.98039215691302.01960784314
462107316449.98039215694623.01960784314
471717016449.9803921569720.019607843138
481944016449.98039215692990.01960784314
491979516449.98039215693345.01960784314
501757516449.98039215691125.01960784314
511616516449.9803921569-284.980392156862
521946519926.1052631579-461.105263157895
531993219926.10526315795.89473684210531
541996119926.105263157934.8947368421053
551734319926.1052631579-2583.10526315789
561892419926.1052631579-1002.10526315789
571857419926.1052631579-1352.10526315789
582135119926.10526315791424.89473684211
591859519926.1052631579-1331.10526315789
601982319926.1052631579-103.105263157895
612084419926.1052631579917.894736842105
621964019926.1052631579-286.105263157895
631773519926.1052631579-2191.10526315789
641981419926.1052631579-112.105263157895
652223919926.10526315792312.89473684211
662068219926.1052631579755.894736842105
671781919926.1052631579-2107.10526315789
682187219926.10526315791945.89473684211
692211719926.10526315792190.89473684211
702186619926.10526315791939.89473684211


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
50.7490431251197930.5019137497604140.250956874880207
60.6097700055257330.7804599889485350.390229994474267
70.5559457605831360.8881084788337280.444054239416864
80.4347970829796820.8695941659593650.565202917020318
90.3288773364349810.6577546728699620.671122663565019
100.2759007704736060.5518015409472110.724099229526394
110.200880383658930.401760767317860.79911961634107
120.1413676882639810.2827353765279620.85863231173602
130.09874893443745070.1974978688749010.90125106556255
140.0662185474834750.132437094966950.933781452516525
150.3531655134879060.7063310269758130.646834486512094
160.3372676585948370.6745353171896750.662732341405163
170.3473192626392740.6946385252785480.652680737360726
180.3030915020233780.6061830040467570.696908497976622
190.2703640251078570.5407280502157140.729635974892143
200.2590104385310520.5180208770621040.740989561468948
210.2302371952537110.4604743905074220.769762804746289
220.3601778916281030.7203557832562060.639822108371897
230.3356708236242350.6713416472484690.664329176375765
240.3090720382285030.6181440764570050.690927961771497
250.3920585059690580.7841170119381160.607941494030942
260.3587207144761630.7174414289523250.641279285523837
270.5022071912419170.9955856175161660.497792808758083
280.5599826322344210.8800347355311580.440017367765579
290.6016049294132350.796790141173530.398395070586765
300.598197403000920.803605193998160.40180259699908
310.5686018740753180.8627962518493630.431398125924681
320.5529169488412610.8941661023174780.447083051158739
330.528481545879820.943036908240360.47151845412018
340.6544607652977530.6910784694044930.345539234702247
350.6456154842458010.7087690315083970.354384515754199
360.6134981796099570.7730036407800860.386501820390043
370.6396844644758910.7206310710482180.360315535524109
380.6218657597387550.7562684805224910.378134240261245
390.7104253191818340.5791493616363330.289574680818166
400.7596738801498180.4806522397003650.240326119850182
410.7326037851575580.5347924296848840.267396214842442
420.7543879988508540.4912240022982920.245612001149146
430.7234897823529540.5530204352940920.276510217647046
440.6854814993903260.6290370012193480.314518500609674
450.6459570271345590.7080859457308820.354042972865441
460.838339631345930.3233207373081400.161660368654070
470.8033040847289670.3933918305420670.196695915271033
480.8178410126909250.3643179746181510.182158987309075
490.8802131663010820.2395736673978350.119786833698918
500.8517811098097130.2964377803805740.148218890190287
510.7988463831926760.4023072336146480.201153616807324
520.7386249757097310.5227500485805380.261375024290269
530.6650345667981080.6699308664037850.334965433201892
540.5826704507498810.8346590985002370.417329549250119
550.6778461313560110.6443077372879780.322153868643989
560.6282027614272150.743594477145570.371797238572785
570.6100641679175710.7798716641648580.389935832082429
580.5620632912312420.8758734175375160.437936708768758
590.5452563700408160.9094872599183680.454743629959184
600.4492700331171030.8985400662342060.550729966882897
610.3525320391973680.7050640783947370.647467960802632
620.2653815505634080.5307631011268150.734618449436592
630.4178826952420990.8357653904841990.5821173047579
640.3323095354615920.6646190709231830.667690464538408
650.2626749679987460.5253499359974920.737325032001254


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level00OK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/5wwfa1228662773.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/6ivgz1228662773.ps (open in new window)


http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/7xf5d1228662773.png (open in new window)
http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/7xf5d1228662773.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/8yt371228662773.ps (open in new window)


http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/9g8zr1228662773.png (open in new window)
http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/07/t1228662832d9toh8ry70z14p8/9g8zr1228662773.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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