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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:44:12 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 01 Dec 2008 15:45:11 +0000
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj.htm/},
    year = {2008},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2008},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
 
Feedback Forum:
2008-11-27 13:41:43 [a2386b643d711541400692649981f2dc] [reply
test

Post a new message
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
blog
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
14929387,5 0 14717825,3 0 15826281,2 0 16301309,6 0 15033016,9 0 16998460,6 0 14066462,7 0 13328937,3 0 17319718,2 0 17586426,8 0 15887037,4 0 17935679,1 0 15869489 0 15892510,9 0 17556558,1 0 16791643 0 15953688,5 0 18144913,6 0 14390881 0 13885708,7 0 17332571,5 0 17152595,8 0 16003877,1 0 16841467,1 0 14783398,1 0 14667847,5 0 17714362,2 0 16282088 1 15014866,2 1 17722582,4 1 13876509,4 1 15495489,6 1 17799521,1 1 17920079,1 1 17248022,4 1 18813782,4 1 16249688,3 1 17823358,5 1 20424438,3 1 17814218,7 1 19699959,6 1 19776328,1 1 15679833,1 1 17119266,5 1 20092613 1 20863688,3 1 20925203,1 1 21032593 1 20664684,3 1 19711511,4 1 22553293,4 1 19498332,9 1 20722827,8 1 21321275 1 17960847,7 1 17789654,9 1 20003708,5 1 21169851,7 1 20422839,4 1 19810562,3 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time6 seconds
R Server'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ 193.190.124.24


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
x[t] = + 15453593.0116667 -187164.427777778y[t] -1341566.15125000M1[t] -1376771.60527778M2[t] + 777117.580694444M3[t] -761404.467777779M4[t] -912537.841805555M5[t] + 496815.564166667M6[t] -3199476.32986111M7[t] -2969058.44388889M8[t] -81730.1179166674M9[t] + 248685.028055555M10[t] -690934.165972223M11[t] + 98486.7340277778t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)15453593.0116667576154.59944626.82200
y-187164.427777778554405.021808-0.33760.7372040.368602
M1-1341566.15125000672370.86634-1.99530.0519550.025978
M2-1376771.60527778670654.415434-2.05290.0457980.022899
M3777117.580694444669316.3548431.16110.2516070.125803
M4-761404.467777779677494.127493-1.12390.2669060.133453
M5-912537.841805555674652.674481-1.35260.1827940.091397
M6496815.564166667672180.366020.73910.4635950.231797
M7-3199476.32986111670081.288069-4.77481.9e-059e-06
M8-2969058.44388889668358.957192-4.44235.6e-052.8e-05
M9-81730.1179166674667016.291839-0.12250.9030120.451506
M10248685.028055555666055.5880530.37340.7105880.355294
M11-690934.165972223665478.500071-1.03830.304580.15229
t98486.734027777816004.2944296.153800


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.912059686768993
R-squared0.831852872229153
Adjusted R-squared0.784333031772175
F-TEST (value)17.5053801576262
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value1.29785071578681e-13
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation1051909.56908919
Sum Squared Residuals50899632110904.9


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
114929387.514210513.5944445718873.905555543
214717825.314273794.8744444444030.425555557
315826281.216526170.7944444-699889.594444444
416301309.615086135.481215174.12
515033016.915033488.84-471.939999998604
616998460.616541328.98457131.620000001
714066462.712943523.821122938.88
813328937.313272428.4456508.860000001
917319718.216258243.51061474.70000000
1017586426.816687145.38899281.42
1115887037.415846012.9241024.480000001
1217935679.116635433.821300245.28000000
131586948915392354.4027778477134.597222224
1415892510.915455635.6827778436875.217222221
1517556558.117708011.6027778-151453.502777776
161679164316267976.2883333523666.711666667
1715953688.516215329.6483333-261641.148333334
1818144913.617723169.7883333421743.811666667
191439088114125364.6283333265516.371666667
2013885708.714454269.2483333-568560.548333334
2117332571.517440084.3083333-107512.808333333
2217152595.817868986.1883333-716390.388333333
2316003877.117027853.7283333-1023976.62833333
2416841467.117817274.6283333-975807.528333332
2514783398.116574195.2111111-1790797.11111111
2614667847.516637476.4911111-1969628.99111111
2717714362.218889852.4111111-1175490.21111111
281628208817262652.6688889-980564.668888888
2915014866.217210006.0288889-2195139.82888889
3017722582.418717846.1688889-995263.76888889
3113876509.415120041.0088889-1243531.60888889
3215495489.615448945.628888946543.971111111
3317799521.118434760.6888889-635239.588888887
3417920079.118863662.5688889-943583.468888888
3517248022.418022530.1088889-774507.70888889
3618813782.418811951.00888891831.39111110945
3716249688.317568871.5916667-1319183.29166666
3817823358.517632152.8716667191205.628333334
3920424438.319884528.7916667539909.508333334
4017814218.718444493.4772222-630274.777222223
4119699959.618391846.83722221308112.76277778
4219776328.119899686.9772222-123358.877222221
4315679833.116301881.8172222-622048.717222223
4417119266.516630786.4372222488480.062777778
452009261319616601.4972222476011.502777778
4620863688.320045503.3772222818184.922777778
4720925203.119204370.91722221720832.18277778
482103259319993791.81722221038801.18277778
4920664684.318750712.41913971.90000000
5019711511.418813993.68897517.719999999
5122553293.421066369.61486923.80000000
5219498332.919626334.2855556-128001.385555557
5320722827.819573687.64555561149140.15444444
542132127521081527.7855556239747.214444443
5517960847.717483722.6255556477125.074444444
5617789654.917812627.2455556-22972.3455555567
5720003708.520798442.3055556-794733.805555556
5821169851.721227344.1855556-57492.4855555578
5920422839.420386211.725555636627.6744444429
6019810562.321175632.6255556-1365070.32555556


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.05811324812841610.1162264962568320.941886751871584
180.01900119919300940.03800239838601870.98099880080699
190.01756099079393340.03512198158786690.982439009206067
200.007413774198993480.01482754839798700.992586225801007
210.01019407259040300.02038814518080610.989805927409597
220.02105951684958680.04211903369917350.978940483150413
230.01237157762269310.02474315524538620.987628422377307
240.04588581657043750.0917716331408750.954114183429563
250.05865088955346010.1173017791069200.94134911044654
260.05460602452222750.1092120490444550.945393975477772
270.03813429482731460.07626858965462920.961865705172685
280.02048514554714400.04097029109428800.979514854452856
290.03735277628830560.07470555257661130.962647223711694
300.02399480041237210.04798960082474410.976005199587628
310.0143404038624910.0286808077249820.985659596137509
320.04071173879778180.08142347759556360.959288261202218
330.02334066927952510.04668133855905010.976659330720475
340.01602140138496400.03204280276992790.983978598615036
350.02145517622816330.04291035245632660.978544823771837
360.01574791412489360.03149582824978720.984252085875106
370.1152668293986210.2305336587972430.884733170601379
380.2011435859531220.4022871719062450.798856414046877
390.3773884219429600.7547768438859190.62261157805704
400.3393154837038820.6786309674077650.660684516296118
410.446041892772250.89208378554450.55395810722775
420.4050196621198110.8100393242396230.594980337880189
430.7316204539266860.5367590921466280.268379546073314


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level130.481481481481481NOK
10% type I error level170.62962962962963NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj/68vl11228146239.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj/7dq001228146239.ps (open in new window)


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http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj/8obbo1228146239.ps (open in new window)


http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj/9q8lw1228146239.png (open in new window)
http://127.0.0.1/wessadotnet/public_html/freestatisticsdotorg/blog/date/2008/Dec/01/t122814631110pf5rdjgsuv7rj/9q8lw1228146239.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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