| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.216529821272695 |
| beta | 0.253710197629439 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1040 | 742 | 298 |
| 4 | 949 | 798.896762216096 | 150.103237783904 |
| 5 | 758 | 832.015509957596 | -74.0155099575961 |
| 6 | 1023 | 812.539762297137 | 210.460237702863 |
| 7 | 921 | 866.223303958371 | 54.7766960416292 |
| 8 | 775 | 889.205919087825 | -114.205919087825 |
| 9 | 907 | 869.324762523146 | 37.6752374768542 |
| 10 | 835 | 884.40012584979 | -49.4001258497902 |
| 11 | 871 | 877.90723971126 | -6.9072397112601 |
| 12 | 836 | 880.235875710305 | -44.2358757103054 |
| 13 | 789 | 872.051614556775 | -83.0516145567747 |
| 14 | 811 | 850.900079548992 | -39.9000795489924 |
| 15 | 996 | 836.900194966462 | 159.099805033538 |
| 16 | 778 | 874.7299986735 | -96.7299986735004 |
| 17 | 603 | 851.851078549376 | -248.851078549376 |
| 18 | 990 | 782.36256919729 | 207.63743080271 |
| 19 | 735 | 823.124168490266 | -88.1241684902659 |
| 20 | 800 | 795.003387760908 | 4.99661223909209 |
| 21 | 706 | 787.320526048954 | -81.3205260489542 |
| 22 | 766 | 756.480019724619 | 9.51998027538127 |
| 23 | 870 | 745.832179957503 | 124.167820042497 |
| 24 | 647 | 766.83027792146 | -119.83027792146 |
| 25 | 726 | 728.412536314865 | -2.41253631486541 |
| 26 | 784 | 715.286702642812 | 68.7132973571885 |
| 27 | 884 | 721.336554616381 | 162.663445383619 |
| 28 | 696 | 756.665465716455 | -60.6654657164549 |
| 29 | 893 | 740.304300278829 | 152.695699721171 |
| 30 | 674 | 778.53065390687 | -104.53065390687 |
| 31 | 703 | 755.317353577938 | -52.3173535779379 |
| 32 | 799 | 740.53569292218 | 58.46430707782 |
| 33 | 793 | 752.953350317668 | 40.046649682332 |
| 34 | 799 | 763.583031337686 | 35.4169686623138 |
| 35 | 1022 | 775.155908702003 | 246.844091297997 |
| 36 | 758 | 846.069646635548 | -88.0696466355481 |
| 37 | 1021 | 839.626394167474 | 181.373605832526 |
| 38 | 944 | 901.489549441958 | 42.5104505580424 |
| 39 | 915 | 935.620037142789 | -20.6200371427893 |
| 40 | 864 | 954.948112898753 | -90.9481128987534 |
| 41 | 1022 | 954.051753480428 | 67.9482465195716 |
| 42 | 891 | 991.293987262604 | -100.293987262604 |
| 43 | 1087 | 986.597027426187 | 100.402972573813 |
| 44 | 822 | 1030.87266443819 | -208.872664438189 |
| 45 | 890 | 996.706311164682 | -106.706311164682 |
| 46 | 1092 | 978.800021002653 | 113.199978997347 |
| 47 | 967 | 1014.7287346406 | -47.7287346405985 |
| 48 | 833 | 1013.18956532296 | -180.189565322955 |
| 49 | 1104 | 973.069813810261 | 130.930186189739 |
| 50 | 1063 | 1007.5095241188 | 55.4904758812035 |
| 51 | 1103 | 1028.66270244005 | 74.3372975599495 |
| 52 | 1039 | 1057.9805603676 | -18.9805603676 |
| 53 | 1185 | 1066.04960647756 | 118.950393522442 |
| 54 | 1047 | 1110.51945523458 | -63.5194552345752 |
| 55 | 1155 | 1111.98964665526 | 43.0103533447409 |
| 56 | 878 | 1138.88952767851 | -260.889527678512 |
| 57 | 879 | 1085.65384066882 | -206.653840668824 |
| 58 | 1133 | 1032.80909830616 | 100.190901693836 |
| 59 | 920 | 1051.90946288234 | -131.909462882339 |
| 60 | 943 | 1013.50662199594 | -70.5066219959416 |
| 61 | 938 | 984.525987913292 | -46.5259879132922 |
| 62 | 900 | 958.18193277087 | -58.1819327708696 |
| 63 | 781 | 926.117745567667 | -145.117745567667 |
| 64 | 1040 | 867.257199464199 | 172.742800535801 |
| 65 | 792 | 886.712708642086 | -94.7127086420857 |
| 66 | 653 | 843.053003550652 | -190.053003550652 |
| 67 | 866 | 768.30856313679 | 97.6914368632105 |
| 68 | 679 | 761.236134535135 | -82.2361345351352 |
| 69 | 799 | 710.686311264047 | 88.3136887359526 |
| 70 | 760 | 701.917195982851 | 58.0828040171489 |
| 71 | 697 | 689.793019320839 | 7.20698067916135 |
| 72 | 750 | 667.048631144694 | 82.9513688553055 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 665.262163581811 | 427.171012634464 | 903.353314529158 |
| 74 | 645.514250946363 | 398.806135444527 | 892.222366448199 |
| 75 | 625.766338310915 | 367.107776758662 | 884.424899863169 |
| 76 | 606.018425675467 | 331.887751277358 | 880.149100073577 |
| 77 | 586.270513040019 | 293.12007613671 | 879.420949943328 |
| 78 | 566.522600404571 | 250.904054762389 | 882.141146046753 |
| 79 | 546.774687769123 | 205.419376409966 | 888.129999128281 |
| 80 | 527.026775133675 | 156.885607154276 | 897.167943113074 |
| 81 | 507.278862498227 | 105.532260607788 | 909.025464388666 |
| 82 | 487.530949862779 | 51.5800912304319 | 923.481808495126 |
| 83 | 467.783037227331 | -4.76865319980055 | 940.334727654463 |
| 84 | 448.035124591883 | -63.3339573219355 | 959.404206505702 |
