Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 1 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | -0.0999999999999996 |
4 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0 |
5 | 8.1 | 8.3 | -0.199999999999999 |
6 | 7.7 | 8 | -0.3 |
7 | 6.9 | 7.3 | -0.4 |
8 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 0.499999999999999 |
9 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 0.400000000000001 |
10 | 7 | 6.8 | 0.199999999999999 |
11 | 7.1 | 7.3 | -0.2 |
12 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.199999999999999 |
13 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0 |
14 | 6.8 | 6.8 | -8.88178419700125e-16 |
15 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 0.100000000000001 |
16 | 7 | 6.8 | 0.2 |
17 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
18 | 6.8 | 7 | -0.2 |
19 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 0.100000000000001 |
20 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -8.88178419700125e-16 |
21 | 6.4 | 6.5 | -0.0999999999999988 |
22 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 0.199999999999999 |
23 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0 |
24 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 0.0999999999999996 |
25 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 0 |
26 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -0.199999999999999 |
27 | 6.3 | 6.4 | -0.100000000000001 |
28 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 0.100000000000001 |
29 | 6.1 | 6.1 | -8.88178419700125e-16 |
30 | 6.5 | 6 | 0.500000000000001 |
31 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 0.199999999999999 |
32 | 7.2 | 7.7 | -0.499999999999999 |
33 | 6.9 | 7.3 | -0.4 |
34 | 6.2 | 6.6 | -0.4 |
35 | 6 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
36 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 0.4 |
37 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 0.5 |
38 | 7.4 | 7.6 | -0.2 |
39 | 7.8 | 7.9 | -0.100000000000001 |
40 | 7.8 | 8.2 | -0.399999999999999 |
41 | 7.7 | 7.8 | -0.0999999999999996 |
42 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 0.0999999999999996 |
43 | 7.6 | 7.7 | -0.100000000000001 |
44 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 0.100000000000001 |
45 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 0.100000000000001 |
46 | 8 | 7.8 | 0.199999999999999 |
47 | 8.2 | 8.3 | -0.100000000000001 |
48 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 1.77635683940025e-15 |
49 | 8.2 | 8.6 | -0.400000000000002 |
50 | 8.1 | 8 | 0.100000000000001 |
51 | 8.1 | 8 | 0.0999999999999996 |
52 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 0.0999999999999996 |
53 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 1.77635683940025e-15 |
54 | 8.4 | 8.4 | -1.77635683940025e-15 |
55 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 |
56 | 8.3 | 8.6 | -0.299999999999999 |
57 | 8.1 | 8.1 | -1.77635683940025e-15 |
58 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 1.77635683940025e-15 |
59 | 7.7 | 7.7 | -8.88178419700125e-16 |
60 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 0.0999999999999996 |
61 | 7.4 | 7.5 | -0.0999999999999988 |
62 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 0.0999999999999988 |
63 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.199999999999999 |
64 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 0.0999999999999996 |
65 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 0.2 |
66 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 0.100000000000001 |
67 | 7.3 | 7 | 0.299999999999999 |
68 | 7.5 | 7.7 | -0.199999999999999 |
69 | 7.5 | 7.7 | -0.2 |
70 | 7.2 | 7.5 | -0.3 |
71 | 7 | 6.9 | 0.0999999999999996 |
72 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 0.100000000000001 |
73 | 7 | 6.8 | 0.199999999999999 |
74 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0 |
75 | 7.1 | 7.2 | -0.0999999999999996 |
76 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 0.100000000000001 |
77 | 7.3 | 7.3 | -8.88178419700125e-16 |
78 | 7.3 | 7.4 | -0.0999999999999996 |
79 | 7.2 | 7.3 | -0.0999999999999996 |
80 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 0.399999999999999 |
81 | 8 | 7.8 | 0.2 |
82 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 0.199999999999999 |
83 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.399999999999999 |
84 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.300000000000001 |
85 | 8.8 | 9 | -0.199999999999999 |
86 | 8.5 | 8.6 | -0.100000000000001 |
87 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 0.300000000000001 |
88 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 |
89 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 |
90 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 0.0999999999999996 |
91 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 0 |
92 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 1.77635683940025e-15 |
93 | 8.8 | 8.9 | -0.100000000000001 |
94 | 8.7 | 8.8 | -0.100000000000001 |
95 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 0.100000000000001 |
96 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 0.100000000000001 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 8.9 | 8.47514371334822 | 9.32485628665178 |
98 | 9 | 8.04999246237848 | 9.95000753762153 |
99 | 9.1 | 7.51033333673202 | 10.689666663268 |
100 | 9.20000000000001 | 6.87296628102939 | 11.5270337189706 |
101 | 9.30000000000001 | 6.14918144969998 | 12.4508185503 |
102 | 9.40000000000001 | 5.34712933194431 | 13.4528706680557 |
103 | 9.50000000000001 | 4.47303262363324 | 14.5269673763668 |
104 | 9.60000000000001 | 3.53183847291964 | 15.6681615270804 |
105 | 9.70000000000001 | 2.52760037869828 | 16.8723996213017 |
106 | 9.80000000000001 | 1.46371768961709 | 18.1362823103829 |
107 | 9.90000000000002 | 0.343094154507144 | 19.4569058454929 |
108 | 10 | -0.831752480550014 | 20.8317524805501 |