| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.353448151874362 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 1239 | 2201 | -962 |
| 3 | 966 | 1860.98287789686 | -894.982877896864 |
| 4 | 1001 | 1544.65283374502 | -543.652833745019 |
| 5 | 1079 | 1352.49974439658 | -273.499744396582 |
| 6 | 909 | 1255.8317652015 | -346.8317652015 |
| 7 | 1038 | 1133.24471877971 | -95.244718779707 |
| 8 | 817 | 1099.58064895123 | -282.580648951226 |
| 9 | 817 | 999.703040823957 | -182.703040823957 |
| 10 | 926 | 935.126988702904 | -9.12698870290353 |
| 11 | 555 | 931.901071413684 | -376.901071413684 |
| 12 | 156 | 798.68608428305 | -642.68608428305 |
| 13 | 1604 | 571.529875557835 | 1032.47012444216 |
| 14 | 610 | 936.454532907411 | -326.454532907411 |
| 15 | 635 | 821.069781580279 | -186.069781580279 |
| 16 | 623 | 755.303761161063 | -132.303761161063 |
| 17 | 744 | 708.541241292658 | 35.4587587073418 |
| 18 | 939 | 721.074074025527 | 217.925925974473 |
| 19 | 993 | 798.099589806714 | 194.900410193286 |
| 20 | 634 | 866.986779589086 | -232.986779589086 |
| 21 | 858 | 784.638032932164 | 73.3619670678358 |
| 22 | 849 | 810.567684610159 | 38.4323153898413 |
| 23 | 458 | 824.151515456951 | -366.151515456951 |
| 24 | 109 | 694.735939012695 | -585.735939012695 |
| 25 | 1538 | 487.708653882263 | 1050.29134611774 |
| 26 | 739 | 858.932189097214 | -119.932189097214 |
| 27 | 855 | 816.542378510557 | 38.457621489443 |
| 28 | 834 | 830.135153751484 | 3.86484624851562 |
| 29 | 1004 | 831.501176515301 | 172.498823484699 |
| 30 | 1355 | 892.47056687647 | 462.52943312353 |
| 31 | 968 | 1055.95074020148 | -87.9507402014779 |
| 32 | 811 | 1024.86471362128 | -213.864713621283 |
| 33 | 1121 | 949.274625840701 | 171.725374159299 |
| 34 | 960 | 1009.97064196724 | -49.9706419672386 |
| 35 | 973 | 992.308610915943 | -19.3086109159428 |
| 36 | 233 | 985.484018072442 | -752.484018072442 |
| 37 | 1662 | 719.519932569743 | 942.480067430257 |
| 38 | 894 | 1052.63777058139 | -158.637770581392 |
| 39 | 966 | 996.56754375193 | -30.5675437519299 |
| 40 | 859 | 985.763501905471 | -126.763501905471 |
| 41 | 946 | 940.95917643186 | 5.04082356813956 |
| 42 | 1156 | 942.740846205944 | 213.259153794056 |
| 43 | 895 | 1018.11689998474 | -123.116899984744 |
| 44 | 952 | 974.601459220635 | -22.6014592206353 |
| 45 | 1078 | 966.613015229438 | 111.386984770562 |
| 46 | 689 | 1005.98253913945 | -316.982539139451 |
| 47 | 621 | 893.945646504169 | -272.945646504169 |
| 48 | 587 | 797.473512185118 | -210.473512185118 |
| 49 | 1425 | 723.082038284782 | 701.917961715218 |
| 50 | 1022 | 971.173644620445 | 50.8263553795548 |
| 51 | 1406 | 989.138125995858 | 416.861874004142 |
| 52 | 776 | 1136.47718494951 | -360.477184949506 |
| 53 | 1105 | 1009.06719013623 | 95.9328098637698 |
| 54 | 2244 | 1042.97446448669 | 1201.02553551331 |
| 55 | 679 | 1467.47472036779 | -788.474720367789 |
| 56 | 665 | 1188.78978765414 | -523.789787654139 |
| 57 | 704 | 1003.65725523712 | -299.657255237119 |
| 58 | 449 | 897.743952177815 | -448.743952177815 |
| 59 | 560 | 739.136231615769 | -179.136231615769 |
| 60 | 229 | 675.820861617438 | -446.820861617438 |
| 61 | 1158 | 517.892853859844 | 640.107146140156 |
| 62 | 908 | 744.137541664655 | 163.862458335345 |
| 63 | 1104 | 802.054424724872 | 301.945575275128 |
| 64 | 731 | 908.776530272507 | -177.776530272507 |
| 65 | 989 | 845.941744201053 | 143.058255798947 |
| 66 | 1308 | 896.505420323561 | 411.494579676439 |
| 67 | 757 | 1041.94741901652 | -284.947419016516 |
| 68 | 896 | 941.233280383759 | -45.2332803837587 |
| 69 | 917 | 925.245661028904 | -8.24566102890435 |
| 70 | 844 | 922.331247377256 | -78.3312473772557 |
| 71 | 815 | 894.645212757751 | -79.6452127577513 |
| 72 | 401 | 866.494759502884 | -465.494759502884 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 701.966497049389 | -124.950975422215 | 1528.88396952099 |
| 74 | 701.966497049389 | -175.082927275943 | 1579.01592137472 |
| 75 | 701.966497049389 | -222.50031097563 | 1626.43330507441 |
| 76 | 701.966497049389 | -267.601481779603 | 1671.53447587838 |
| 77 | 701.966497049389 | -310.695960041377 | 1714.62895414015 |
| 78 | 701.966497049389 | -352.02991586276 | 1755.96290996154 |
| 79 | 701.966497049389 | -391.802959857435 | 1795.73595395621 |
| 80 | 701.966497049389 | -430.179611583599 | 1834.11260568238 |
| 81 | 701.966497049389 | -467.29737296601 | 1871.23036706479 |
| 82 | 701.966497049389 | -503.272559799483 | 1907.20555389826 |
| 83 | 701.966497049389 | -538.204608316531 | 1942.13760241531 |
| 84 | 701.966497049389 | -572.179317610416 | 1976.11231170919 |
