Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999956082704757 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 100.93 | 100.64 | 0.290000000000006 |
3 | 101.41 | 100.929987263984 | 0.48001273601561 |
4 | 102.07 | 101.409978919139 | 0.660021080861043 |
5 | 102.42 | 102.069971013659 | 0.350028986340675 |
6 | 102.53 | 102.419984627674 | 0.11001537232633 |
7 | 102.43 | 102.529995168422 | -0.0999951684223959 |
8 | 102.6 | 102.430004391517 | 0.169995608482651 |
9 | 102.65 | 102.599992534253 | 0.0500074657473419 |
10 | 102.74 | 102.649997803807 | 0.0900021961926285 |
11 | 102.82 | 102.739996047347 | 0.0800039526530298 |
12 | 103.2 | 102.819996486443 | 0.380003513557227 |
13 | 102.75 | 103.199983311273 | -0.449983311273499 |
14 | 103.09 | 102.75001976205 | 0.339980237950073 |
15 | 103.71 | 103.089985068988 | 0.620014931012477 |
16 | 104.3 | 103.709972770621 | 0.590027229378776 |
17 | 104.58 | 104.2999740876 | 0.280025912400035 |
18 | 104.71 | 104.579987702019 | 0.130012297980656 |
19 | 104.44 | 104.709994290212 | -0.269994290211514 |
20 | 104.57 | 104.440011857419 | 0.129988142581041 |
21 | 104.95 | 104.569994291272 | 0.380005708727651 |
22 | 105.49 | 104.949983311177 | 0.540016688822888 |
23 | 106.03 | 105.489976283928 | 0.540023716072369 |
24 | 106.48 | 106.029976283619 | 0.450023716380969 |
25 | 106.25 | 106.479980236176 | -0.229980236175578 |
26 | 106.7 | 106.25001010011 | 0.44998989989007 |
27 | 107.6 | 106.699980237661 | 0.900019762339284 |
28 | 108.05 | 107.599960473566 | 0.450039526433628 |
29 | 108.72 | 108.049980235481 | 0.670019764518756 |
30 | 109.17 | 108.719970574544 | 0.450029425455824 |
31 | 109.08 | 109.169980235925 | -0.0899802359248554 |
32 | 109.04 | 109.080003951689 | -0.0400039516885755 |
33 | 109.34 | 109.040001756865 | 0.299998243134638 |
34 | 109.37 | 109.339986824889 | 0.0300131751114208 |
35 | 108.96 | 109.369998681903 | -0.409998681902536 |
36 | 108.77 | 108.960018006033 | -0.190018006033171 |
37 | 108.11 | 108.770008345077 | -0.660008345076861 |
38 | 108.67 | 108.110028985781 | 0.559971014218647 |
39 | 109.05 | 108.669975407588 | 0.380024592412354 |
40 | 109.43 | 109.049983310348 | 0.380016689652237 |
41 | 109.62 | 109.429983310695 | 0.190016689305153 |
42 | 109.85 | 109.619991654981 | 0.230008345019044 |
43 | 109.34 | 109.849989898656 | -0.50998989865559 |
44 | 109.65 | 109.340022397377 | 0.30997760262305 |
45 | 109.69 | 109.649986386622 | 0.0400136133778801 |
46 | 109.91 | 109.68999824271 | 0.22000175728968 |
47 | 110.09 | 109.909990338118 | 0.180009661882139 |
48 | 110.44 | 110.089992094463 | 0.350007905537467 |
49 | 109.9 | 110.439984628599 | -0.53998462859947 |
50 | 110.25 | 109.900023714664 | 0.349976285335629 |
51 | 111.26 | 110.249984629988 | 1.01001537001186 |
52 | 111.74 | 111.259955642857 | 0.480044357143186 |
53 | 111.91 | 111.73997891775 | 0.170021082249761 |
54 | 111.95 | 111.909992533134 | 0.0400074668660721 |
55 | 111.63 | 111.94999824298 | -0.319998242980276 |
56 | 111.85 | 111.630014053457 | 0.219985946542693 |
57 | 112.16 | 111.849990338812 | 0.310009661187777 |
58 | 112.49 | 112.159986385214 | 0.330013614785813 |
59 | 112.66 | 112.489985506695 | 0.170014493305359 |
60 | 113.39 | 112.659992533423 | 0.730007466576708 |
61 | 112.92 | 113.389967940047 | -0.469967940046558 |
62 | 113.44 | 112.920020639721 | 0.519979360279223 |
63 | 114.68 | 113.439977163913 | 1.24002283608709 |
64 | 115.38 | 114.679945541551 | 0.700054458448989 |
65 | 115.48 | 115.379969255502 | 0.100030744498355 |
66 | 115.41 | 115.47999560692 | -0.0699956069202727 |
67 | 114.92 | 115.410003074018 | -0.490003074017736 |
68 | 115.16 | 114.92002151961 | 0.23997848039032 |
69 | 115.89 | 115.159989460794 | 0.730010539205779 |
70 | 116.25 | 115.889967939912 | 0.360032060088386 |
71 | 116.43 | 116.249984188366 | 0.180015811634291 |
72 | 116.83 | 116.429992094192 | 0.400007905807541 |
73 | 116.17 | 116.829982432735 | -0.659982432734694 |
74 | 116.78 | 116.170028984643 | 0.609971015356649 |
75 | 117.98 | 116.779973211723 | 1.20002678827717 |
76 | 118.53 | 117.979947298069 | 0.550052701930753 |
77 | 118.43 | 118.529975843173 | -0.0999758431730839 |
78 | 118.29 | 118.430004390669 | -0.140004390668622 |
79 | 117.85 | 118.290006148614 | -0.44000614861416 |
80 | 118.27 | 117.85001932388 | 0.419980676120062 |
81 | 119 | 118.269981555585 | 0.73001844441535 |
82 | 119.33 | 118.999967939564 | 0.330032060435542 |
83 | 119.17 | 119.329985505885 | -0.159985505884563 |
84 | 119.57 | 119.170007026131 | 0.399992973869303 |
85 | 118.62 | 119.56998243339 | -0.94998243339046 |
86 | 119.09 | 118.620041720659 | 0.469958279341 |
87 | 120.19 | 119.089979360703 | 1.1000206392965 |
88 | 120.17 | 120.189951690069 | -0.0199516900688081 |
89 | 120.29 | 120.170000876224 | 0.119999123775742 |
90 | 120.35 | 120.289994729963 | 0.0600052700369247 |
91 | 119.88 | 120.349997364731 | -0.469997364730844 |
92 | 120.04 | 119.880020641013 | 0.159979358986988 |
93 | 120.52 | 120.039992974139 | 0.480007025860729 |
94 | 120.43 | 120.51997891939 | -0.0899789193897078 |
95 | 120.34 | 120.430003951631 | -0.0900039516307771 |
96 | 120.75 | 120.34000395273 | 0.409996047269871 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 120.749981994083 | 119.941476330496 | 121.558487657669 |
98 | 120.749981994083 | 119.606607426618 | 121.893356561547 |
99 | 120.749981994083 | 119.349650106637 | 122.150313881529 |
100 | 120.749981994083 | 119.13302392769 | 122.366940060475 |
101 | 120.749981994083 | 118.942171887366 | 122.557792100799 |
102 | 120.749981994083 | 118.76962814302 | 122.730335845145 |
103 | 120.749981994083 | 118.610957597566 | 122.889006390599 |
104 | 120.749981994083 | 118.463270520729 | 123.036693467436 |
105 | 120.749981994083 | 118.324559689444 | 123.175404298721 |
106 | 120.749981994083 | 118.193363651562 | 123.306600336603 |
107 | 120.749981994083 | 118.06857912566 | 123.431384862505 |
108 | 120.749981994083 | 117.949348969879 | 123.550615018286 |