Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999919076409994 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.2 |
3 | 2.2 | 2.199983815282 | 1.61847180013552e-05 |
4 | 2 | 2.19999999869027 | -0.199999998690275 |
5 | 2.3 | 2.0000161847179 | 0.299983815282105 |
6 | 2.6 | 2.29997572423272 | 0.300024275767277 |
7 | 3.2 | 2.59997572095852 | 0.600024279041484 |
8 | 3.2 | 3.19995144388125 | 4.85561187506534e-05 |
9 | 3.1 | 3.19999999607066 | -0.0999999960706646 |
10 | 2.8 | 3.10000809235868 | -0.300008092358683 |
11 | 2.3 | 2.80002427773186 | -0.500024277731864 |
12 | 1.9 | 2.30004046375964 | -0.400040463759644 |
13 | 1.9 | 1.90003237271047 | -3.23727104747373e-05 |
14 | 2 | 1.90000000261972 | 0.0999999973802843 |
15 | 2 | 1.99999190764121 | 8.09235878862502e-06 |
16 | 1.8 | 1.99999999934514 | -0.199999999345137 |
17 | 1.6 | 1.80001618471795 | -0.200016184717948 |
18 | 1.4 | 1.60001618602773 | -0.200016186027727 |
19 | 0.2 | 1.40001618602783 | -1.20001618602783 |
20 | 0.3 | 0.200097109617838 | 0.0999028903821618 |
21 | 0.4 | 0.299991915499458 | 0.100008084500542 |
22 | 0.7 | 0.399991906986773 | 0.300008093013227 |
23 | 1 | 0.699975722268083 | 0.300024277731917 |
24 | 1.1 | 0.999975720958357 | 0.100024279041643 |
25 | 0.8 | 1.09999190567625 | -0.299991905676252 |
26 | 0.8 | 0.80002427642198 | -2.42764219799962e-05 |
27 | 1 | 0.800000001964535 | 0.199999998035465 |
28 | 1.1 | 0.999983815282158 | 0.100016184717842 |
29 | 1 | 1.09999190633127 | -0.099991906331274 |
30 | 0.8 | 1.00000809170403 | -0.200008091704032 |
31 | 1.6 | 0.800016185372811 | 0.799983814627189 |
32 | 1.5 | 1.59993526243777 | -0.0999352624377741 |
33 | 1.6 | 1.5000080871202 | 0.0999919128797955 |
34 | 1.6 | 1.59999190829544 | 8.09170456173014e-06 |
35 | 1.6 | 1.59999999934519 | 6.54809761968522e-10 |
36 | 1.9 | 1.59999999999995 | 0.300000000000053 |
37 | 2 | 1.899975722923 | 0.100024277077002 |
38 | 1.9 | 1.99999190567641 | -0.0999919056764114 |
39 | 2 | 1.90000809170398 | 0.0999919082960214 |
40 | 2.1 | 1.99999190829581 | 0.100008091704191 |
41 | 2.3 | 2.09999190698619 | 0.20000809301381 |
42 | 2.3 | 2.29998381462708 | 1.61853729170325e-05 |
43 | 2.6 | 2.29999999869022 | 0.300000001309779 |
44 | 2.6 | 2.59997572292289 | 2.42770771077261e-05 |
45 | 2.7 | 2.59999999803541 | 0.100000001964589 |
46 | 2.6 | 2.69999190764084 | -0.0999919076408404 |
47 | 2.6 | 2.60000809170414 | -8.09170413784699e-06 |
48 | 2.4 | 2.60000000065481 | -0.20000000065481 |
49 | 2.5 | 2.40001618471805 | 0.0999838152819459 |
50 | 2.5 | 2.49999190895072 | 8.09104927501636e-06 |
51 | 2.5 | 2.49999999934524 | 6.54756693307945e-10 |
52 | 2.4 | 2.49999999999995 | -0.0999999999999472 |
53 | 2.1 | 2.400008092359 | -0.300008092359 |
54 | 2.1 | 2.10002427773186 | -2.42777318644194e-05 |
55 | 2.3 | 2.10000000196464 | 0.199999998035358 |
56 | 2.3 | 2.29998381528216 | 1.61847178423713e-05 |
57 | 2.3 | 2.29999999869027 | 1.3097256612582e-09 |
58 | 2.9 | 2.29999999999989 | 0.600000000000106 |
59 | 2.8 | 2.899951445846 | -0.0999514458459969 |
60 | 2.9 | 2.80000808842982 | 0.099991911570176 |
61 | 3 | 2.89999190829554 | 0.100008091704456 |
62 | 3 | 2.99999190698619 | 8.09301381066163e-06 |
63 | 2.9 | 2.99999999934508 | -0.0999999993450844 |
64 | 2.6 | 2.90000809235895 | -0.300008092358947 |
65 | 2.8 | 2.60002427773186 | 0.199975722268135 |
66 | 2.9 | 2.79998381724664 | 0.10001618275336 |
67 | 3.1 | 2.89999190633143 | 0.200008093668567 |
68 | 2.8 | 3.09998381462703 | -0.299983814627031 |
69 | 2.4 | 2.80002427576722 | -0.400024275767223 |
70 | 1.6 | 2.40003237140048 | -0.800032371400484 |
71 | 1.5 | 1.60006474149161 | -0.100064741491614 |
72 | 1.7 | 1.50000809759811 | 0.199991902401885 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.69998381593729 | 1.13829986614531 | 2.26166776572926 |
74 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.905674896189049 | 2.49429273568552 |
75 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.727171161553457 | 2.67279647032111 |
76 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.576684095886127 | 2.82328353598844 |
77 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.444101631333685 | 2.95586600054089 |
78 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.324237523141113 | 3.07573010873346 |
79 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.214010847582843 | 3.18595678429173 |
80 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.111414187870006 | 3.28855344400456 |
81 | 1.69998381593729 | 0.0150531753008485 | 3.38491445657372 |
82 | 1.69998381593729 | -0.0760874282117816 | 3.47605506008635 |
83 | 1.69998381593729 | -0.16277404938792 | 3.56274168126249 |
84 | 1.69998381593729 | -0.245602128031424 | 3.645569759906 |