Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.911162626834157 |
beta | 0.0127439084794517 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 92.63 | 93.1837376454169 | -0.55373764541693 |
14 | 92.7 | 92.851162958723 | -0.15116295872302 |
15 | 92.47 | 92.5591704342222 | -0.0891704342222113 |
16 | 92.58 | 92.6195916102733 | -0.039591610273277 |
17 | 92.55 | 92.5367517732017 | 0.0132482267982965 |
18 | 92.56 | 92.5223642686529 | 0.0376357313471516 |
19 | 89.92 | 91.2562781549184 | -1.33627815491838 |
20 | 89.96 | 89.991106048618 | -0.0311060486180423 |
21 | 90.03 | 89.4938783334973 | 0.536121666502652 |
22 | 90.31 | 89.669498592687 | 0.640501407313025 |
23 | 90.8 | 90.0296723439245 | 0.77032765607548 |
24 | 90.36 | 90.357878994931 | 0.00212100506897173 |
25 | 90.31 | 90.9864681054127 | -0.676468105412695 |
26 | 93.8 | 90.5651590230631 | 3.23484097693691 |
27 | 93.95 | 93.3996267636057 | 0.550373236394279 |
28 | 93.99 | 94.0951847025459 | -0.105184702545913 |
29 | 94.44 | 94.0016534795075 | 0.438346520492544 |
30 | 94.15 | 94.427080773229 | -0.277080773229031 |
31 | 91.91 | 92.7718182179469 | -0.861818217946862 |
32 | 91.86 | 92.1094407889745 | -0.249440788974468 |
33 | 93.12 | 91.5044774747907 | 1.61552252520931 |
34 | 93.47 | 92.7268289547986 | 0.74317104520135 |
35 | 93.57 | 93.2497015895653 | 0.320298410434702 |
36 | 94.57 | 93.1453382019753 | 1.42466179802466 |
37 | 95.85 | 95.1134919415998 | 0.736508058400219 |
38 | 96.62 | 96.4489291833903 | 0.171070816609671 |
39 | 95.69 | 96.2990876593732 | -0.609087659373188 |
40 | 95.39 | 95.9242379313443 | -0.534237931344293 |
41 | 95.14 | 95.5250293742436 | -0.385029374243643 |
42 | 95.07 | 95.1621658260215 | -0.0921658260214713 |
43 | 94.21 | 93.6363156854454 | 0.57368431455464 |
44 | 95.4 | 94.387258155193 | 1.01274184480705 |
45 | 95.1 | 95.1507572236542 | -0.0507572236542018 |
46 | 94.89 | 94.8109413857848 | 0.0790586142151568 |
47 | 95.43 | 94.720610521423 | 0.709389478577009 |
48 | 94.88 | 95.0986403568399 | -0.218640356839941 |
49 | 96.03 | 95.5266555860179 | 0.503344413982092 |
50 | 96.37 | 96.6141029186162 | -0.244102918616193 |
51 | 96.04 | 96.0259569204449 | 0.0140430795551367 |
52 | 95.72 | 96.242432833223 | -0.522432833222965 |
53 | 95.74 | 95.8841877672734 | -0.144187767273422 |
54 | 95.78 | 95.7866137434055 | -0.00661374340552356 |
55 | 93.66 | 94.4078044994179 | -0.747804499417953 |
56 | 95.29 | 93.9955260746307 | 1.29447392536927 |
57 | 94.33 | 94.929460485005 | -0.599460485004954 |
58 | 95.66 | 94.1041962145285 | 1.55580378547153 |
59 | 95.2 | 95.4333163944259 | -0.233316394425856 |
60 | 94.61 | 94.8781098512689 | -0.268109851268889 |
61 | 96.21 | 95.3300669604653 | 0.879933039534649 |
62 | 96.27 | 96.7063621473819 | -0.436362147381928 |
63 | 95.12 | 95.975390144136 | -0.855390144136024 |
64 | 95.55 | 95.3489908336401 | 0.201009166359867 |
65 | 93.51 | 95.6906289940365 | -2.18062899403651 |
66 | 92.86 | 93.7311196892674 | -0.871119689267374 |
67 | 92.45 | 91.5130915214181 | 0.936908478581856 |
68 | 93.34 | 92.8023007542908 | 0.537699245709234 |
69 | 92.01 | 92.8704395545034 | -0.860439554503401 |
70 | 91.77 | 91.979176964635 | -0.20917696463502 |
71 | 92.19 | 91.5104735112788 | 0.679526488721194 |
72 | 91.97 | 91.7653949667404 | 0.204605033259597 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 92.7027997484455 | 91.1056202626251 | 94.2999792342658 |
74 | 93.1088207484284 | 90.9302504720413 | 95.2873910248154 |
75 | 92.7202254405099 | 90.0848935645049 | 95.3555573165148 |
76 | 92.9412809955144 | 89.8963431538858 | 95.986218837143 |
77 | 92.8637035124155 | 89.4559161013025 | 96.2714909235285 |
78 | 93.0102380278192 | 89.2596076261718 | 96.7608684294667 |
79 | 91.7588857476011 | 87.7370974113464 | 95.7806740838557 |
80 | 92.1591776353917 | 87.8173377242511 | 96.5010175465323 |
81 | 91.6163034002827 | 87.0083545648063 | 96.2242522357591 |
82 | 91.5745476786003 | 86.688128908256 | 96.4609664489446 |
83 | 91.3854907046783 | 86.2369934127098 | 96.5339879966469 |
84 | 90.9842111449641 | 71.1782085125972 | 110.790213777331 |