| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 103.9 | 101.97 | 1.93000000000001 |
| 3 | 106.85 | 103.899872413565 | 2.9501275864354 |
| 4 | 106.93 | 106.84980497603 | 0.0801950239703615 |
| 5 | 107.13 | 106.929994698551 | 0.200005301449337 |
| 6 | 107.07 | 107.129986778257 | -0.0599867782572687 |
| 7 | 107.2 | 107.070003965544 | 0.129996034456369 |
| 8 | 107.78 | 107.199991406357 | 0.58000859364283 |
| 9 | 108 | 107.779961657394 | 0.22003834260569 |
| 10 | 108.11 | 107.999985453934 | 0.110014546066211 |
| 11 | 107.26 | 108.109992727273 | -0.84999272727265 |
| 12 | 105.3 | 107.260056190436 | -1.96005619043638 |
| 13 | 105.55 | 105.300129573359 | 0.249870426641181 |
| 14 | 105.38 | 105.549983481825 | -0.169983481825355 |
| 15 | 106.12 | 105.380011237091 | 0.739988762908553 |
| 16 | 106.85 | 106.119951081591 | 0.730048918408542 |
| 17 | 107.92 | 106.849951738684 | 1.07004826131565 |
| 18 | 107.97 | 107.919929262361 | 0.0500707376390466 |
| 19 | 107.76 | 107.969996689976 | -0.209996689975668 |
| 20 | 107.99 | 107.760013882243 | 0.229986117756923 |
| 21 | 108.41 | 107.989984796317 | 0.420015203683406 |
| 22 | 107.61 | 108.409972234071 | -0.799972234071149 |
| 23 | 106.54 | 107.610052883734 | -1.07005288373355 |
| 24 | 106.24 | 106.540070737945 | -0.300070737944637 |
| 25 | 106.19 | 106.240019836765 | -0.050019836764676 |
| 26 | 106.71 | 106.190003306659 | 0.519996693340588 |
| 27 | 106.36 | 106.709965624599 | -0.349965624598681 |
| 28 | 107.53 | 106.360023135164 | 1.16997686483597 |
| 29 | 107.89 | 107.529922656385 | 0.360077343615387 |
| 30 | 108 | 107.889976196381 | 0.110023803619043 |
| 31 | 108.05 | 107.999992726661 | 0.0500072733393324 |
| 32 | 108.86 | 108.049996694171 | 0.810003305828886 |
| 33 | 109.27 | 108.859946453143 | 0.410053546857228 |
| 34 | 108.87 | 109.269972892606 | -0.399972892606016 |
| 35 | 108.88 | 108.870026440993 | 0.00997355900743457 |
| 36 | 108.19 | 108.879999340678 | -0.689999340678312 |
| 37 | 108.19 | 108.19004561376 | -4.56137597524275e-05 |
| 38 | 108.91 | 108.190000003015 | 0.719999996984612 |
| 39 | 110.39 | 108.909952402988 | 1.48004759701197 |
| 40 | 111.21 | 110.389902158551 | 0.820097841449282 |
| 41 | 111.44 | 111.209945785824 | 0.230054214176306 |
| 42 | 111.87 | 111.439984791815 | 0.430015208185054 |
| 43 | 111.88 | 111.869971573001 | 0.0100284269987441 |
| 44 | 111.93 | 111.879999337051 | 0.0500006629488468 |
| 45 | 111.76 | 111.929996694608 | -0.169996694608102 |
| 46 | 111.66 | 111.760011237965 | -0.100011237964921 |
| 47 | 110.25 | 111.660006611439 | -1.41000661143903 |
| 48 | 109.05 | 110.250093211253 | -1.20009321125256 |
| 49 | 109.47 | 109.050079334516 | 0.419920665484469 |
| 50 | 109.68 | 109.469972240321 | 0.210027759679207 |
| 51 | 110.93 | 109.679986115703 | 1.25001388429699 |
| 52 | 111.86 | 110.92991736538 | 0.930082634619538 |
| 53 | 112.66 | 111.859938515063 | 0.800061484936776 |
| 54 | 112.96 | 112.659947110366 | 0.300052889633662 |
| 55 | 113.14 | 112.959980164415 | 0.180019835584787 |
| 56 | 113.53 | 113.139988099436 | 0.390011900564318 |
| 57 | 113.62 | 113.529974217498 | 0.0900257825016411 |
| 58 | 112.51 | 113.619994048669 | -1.10999404866908 |
| 59 | 111 | 112.510073378334 | -1.51007337833367 |
| 60 | 108.49 | 111.000099826362 | -2.51009982636246 |
| 61 | 108.52 | 108.490165935072 | 0.0298340649277975 |
| 62 | 110.66 | 108.519998027761 | 2.14000197223938 |
| 63 | 111.15 | 110.659858530972 | 0.490141469027677 |
| 64 | 112.14 | 111.149967598237 | 0.990032401763145 |
| 65 | 113.38 | 112.139934551966 | 1.2400654480337 |
| 66 | 113.75 | 113.379918023041 | 0.370081976958659 |
| 67 | 113.89 | 113.749975535005 | 0.140024464994951 |
| 68 | 113.92 | 113.889990743408 | 0.0300092565918959 |
| 69 | 116.4 | 113.919998016179 | 2.48000198382077 |
| 70 | 115.86 | 116.399836054605 | -0.539836054604706 |
| 71 | 115.16 | 115.860035686921 | -0.700035686921197 |
| 72 | 114.45 | 115.160046277232 | -0.710046277232095 |
| 73 | 114.65 | 114.450046939002 | 0.199953060998197 |
| 74 | 114.85 | 114.649986781711 | 0.200013218289257 |
| 75 | 116.51 | 114.849986777734 | 1.6600132222661 |
| 76 | 118.18 | 116.50989026157 | 1.67010973842993 |
| 77 | 118.75 | 118.17988959412 | 0.57011040587993 |
| 78 | 119.06 | 118.749962311733 | 0.310037688266561 |
| 79 | 119.28 | 119.059979504351 | 0.220020495649464 |
| 80 | 119.68 | 119.279985455114 | 0.400014544886403 |
| 81 | 119.28 | 119.679973556254 | -0.39997355625394 |
| 82 | 117.3 | 119.280026441036 | -1.98002644103643 |
| 83 | 114.23 | 117.300130893531 | -3.07013089353141 |
| 84 | 112.56 | 114.230202957024 | -1.67020295702432 |
| 85 | 112.83 | 112.560110412042 | 0.269889587957664 |
| 86 | 112.35 | 112.829982158419 | -0.479982158419446 |
| 87 | 112.8 | 112.350031730162 | 0.449968269837996 |
| 88 | 113.84 | 112.799970253965 | 1.04002974603503 |
| 89 | 115.02 | 113.839931246794 | 1.18006875320621 |
| 90 | 115.46 | 115.019921989241 | 0.44007801075945 |
| 91 | 115 | 115.45997090778 | -0.459970907779947 |
| 92 | 115.3 | 115.000030407279 | 0.29996959272097 |
| 93 | 116.09 | 115.299980169922 | 0.790019830078279 |
| 94 | 115.49 | 116.08994777419 | -0.59994777418963 |
| 95 | 112.89 | 115.490039660724 | -2.60003966072431 |
| 96 | 110.66 | 112.890171880721 | -2.23017188072137 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 110.660147429886 | 108.652326615786 | 112.667968243986 |
| 98 | 110.660147429886 | 107.820753857163 | 113.49954100261 |
| 99 | 110.660147429886 | 107.182653030162 | 114.137641829611 |
| 100 | 110.660147429886 | 106.644704896441 | 114.675589963332 |
| 101 | 110.660147429886 | 106.170761037661 | 115.149533822111 |
| 102 | 110.660147429886 | 105.742281874792 | 115.578012984981 |
| 103 | 110.660147429886 | 105.34825388264 | 115.972040977133 |
| 104 | 110.660147429886 | 104.981501068598 | 116.338793791174 |
| 105 | 110.660147429886 | 104.637038935441 | 116.683255924332 |
| 106 | 110.660147429886 | 104.311238281446 | 117.009056578327 |
| 107 | 110.660147429886 | 104.001359340869 | 117.318935518904 |
| 108 | 110.660147429886 | 103.705273581014 | 117.615021278759 |
